The bums, or at least many of them, have been thrown out. So the political conversation turns to the question of what the Democrats will do now that they again share power with a Republican president. While it may be too soon to answer that question, we have seen enough to be alarmed about one tendency in particular: economic nationalism. | 笨蛋们——至少有很多笨蛋——已经出局了。因此,接下来要讨论的一个政治问题是:如今再次与共和党总统分享权力的民主党人会做些什么呢?虽然现在回答这个问题也许还为时尚早,但我们所看到的情况足以让我们格外警惕这样一种趋势:经济民族主义(economic nationalism)。 |
Many of the Democrats who recaptured seats held by Republicans have been described as moderates or social conservatives, who will be out of synch with House speaker-to-be Nancy Pelosi. The better term is probably illiberal Democrats. Most of those who reclaimed Republican seats campaigned against free trade, globalisation and any sort of moderate immigration policy. That these Democrats won makes it likely that others will take up their reactionary call. Some of the newcomers may even be foolish enough to try to govern on the basis of their theory. | 许多从共和党手中夺得国会席位的民主党人,一直被描述为温和派或社会保守派,他们与未来的众议院议长南希•佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)之间,将会有不协调之处。对他们更恰当的称谓也许应该是“狭隘的民主党人”。他们多数人都反对自由贸易、全球化和任何一种温和的移民政策。这些民主党人的胜出,使得其他人有可能也会发出他们那种反动的呼声。某些民主党新议员甚至可能还会愚蠢到要用他们那种理论管理国家。 |
There is an important distinction to be made between economic populism and economic nationalism. Many of Tuesday's Democratic victors stressed familiar populist themes: corporate misbehaviour and tough times faced by working people. Al Gore ran in 2000 as an economic populist and so, implausibly, did John Kerry in 2004. Raising the minimum wage (which Republicans foolishly failed to do before the election) is a classic populist position. Opposing Bush tax cuts for the wealthy is another. But in places where Democrats made their most impressive inroads this year, one heard a distinctly different message of economic nationalism. Nationalism begins from the same premise that working people are not doing so well. But instead of blaming the rich at home, it focuses its energy on the poor abroad. The leading economic nationalist today is probably Lou Dobbs, who natters on against free trade, outsourcing, globalisation and immigration on CNN. | 在“经济民粹主义”(economic populism)与“经济民族主义”(economic nationalism)之间,有一个重要的区别。许多在周二获胜的民主党人,都强调一些我们所熟知的民粹主义主题:公司行为失当和工人阶级的艰难处境。2000年,阿尔•戈尔(Al Gore)曾作为一名经济民粹主义者竞选总统,令人难以置信的是,2004年,约翰•克里(John Kerry)竟然也以这样的姿态参选。提高最低工资(共和党人很愚蠢,没有在竞选时鼓吹这个问题),是一种典型的民粹主义立场。再有,就是反对布什给富人减税。然而,在民主党人今年竞选攻势最猛烈的地方,人们听到的是一种截然不同的经济民族主义信息。民族主义也始于同样的前提,即:工人阶级的境况不太好。不过,它不去指责国内的富人,却把精力集中在国外的穷人身上。如今的头号经济民族主义者也许就是卢•多布斯(Lou Dobbs)——他在美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)喋喋不休地反对自由贸易、外包、全球化和移民。 |
The most prominent nationalist candidate this year was Sherrod Brown, who unseated incumbent Senator Mike DeWine in Ohio, a state that has lost 200,000 manufacturing jobs since George W. Bush became president. Mr Brown is the author of a book called Myths of Free Trade: Why American Trade Policy Has Failed. Here is a snippet from one of his television advertisements: “Sherrod Brown stood up to the president of his own party to protect American jobs, fighting against the Mexico and China trade deals that sent countless jobs oversees.” For some reason, economic nationalists never seem to complain about job-killing Dutch or Irish competition. The targets of their anger are consistently China and Mexico, with occasional whacks at Dubai, Oman, Peru and Vietnam. | 今年最著名的民族主义候选人是谢罗德•布朗(Sherrod Brown),他在俄亥俄州击败了现任参议员迈克•德万(Mike DeWine)。自从乔治•布什(George W. Bush)就任美国总统以来,俄亥俄州已经丧失了20万个制造业工作机会。布朗著有《自由贸易神话:美国贸易政策为何失败》(Myths of Free Trade: Why American Trade Policy Has Failed)一书。下面是他电视竞选广告中的一小段:“为了保卫美国的就业机会,谢罗德•布朗敢于直面本党领袖,反对美国与墨西哥和中国签订那些导致无数工作机会流失海外的贸易协定。”出于某种原因,尽管来自荷兰或爱尔兰的竞争也导致美国流失就业机会,但经济民族主义者似乎从不抱怨。他们发泄怒火的目标始终是中国和墨西哥,偶尔也猛烈抨击一下迪拜、阿曼、秘鲁和越南。 |
人们在其它关键的参议院席位竞选中也听到了类似的主题。在弗吉尼亚州,显然已经获胜的詹姆斯•韦伯(James Webb)公开谴责企业界的业务外包,并炮轰共和党竞选人乔治•阿伦(George Allen)投票允许更多“外国客工”进入该州。在密苏里州,胜利者克莱尔•麦卡斯基尔(Claire McCaskill)在移民问题上对现任参议员詹姆斯•泰兰特(James Talent)寸步不让。“不公平的贸易协定已经导致美国人丧失了好工作,伤害了密苏里州的工人和社区,”她在一条竞选广告中说道。“我们现在应当鼓励企业留在国内,而不是对它们搬到海外的行为进行奖励。”在密歇根州,遭遇强大竞争的民主党议员黛博拉•施塔贝诺(Deborah Stabenow)获得连任。她承诺,将建立一个联邦办公室,调查揭发外国政府的不公平贸易行为。 | |
在许多关键众议院席位的竞选中,立场更为鲜明的民族主义成为一大特色。民主党人呼吁暂停签署贸易协定,取消现有协定,有些人还呼吁对中国征收保护性贸易关税。这些候选人还将非法移民与恐怖分子混为一谈,并要求在美国与墨西哥边境修建一道围栏。在宾夕法尼亚州,民主党挑战者们取得了胜利。他们指责现任共和党议员投票赞成《中美洲自由贸易协议》(Central American Free Trade Agreement),导致美国人失去很多好工作,并指责他们在非法移民问题上态度软弱。在俄亥俄州、印第安纳州、爱荷华州、北卡罗莱纳州和威斯康星州,倡导“公平贸易”的候选人也都赢得了先前由共和党人占据的众议院席位。 | |
经济民族主义并非民主党人的专利——对他们来说,这也不是一个新主题。民主党内的保护主义势力首次出现于上世纪80年代。当时,他们将美国制造业的衰退与进口联系在一起。多年来,众议员理查德•格普哈特(Richard Gephardt)一直是保护主义者的化身。但在1992年的总统竞选中,民主党人比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)做出了一项关键决定,支持《北美自由贸易协定》(North American Free Trade Agreement)。克林顿采取了支持自由贸易的立场,并在他的总统任期内始终支持全球化。尽管在国会遇到巨大阻力,但这为他的政党设定了方向。克林顿一直认为,政府应当通过工人再培训计划,并确保医疗保健和便携式养老金(portable pensions)等福利与雇主脱钩,以此解决自由贸易带来的负面后果。但克林顿全球化议程上的人力资本部分没有取得任何进展,这也是当前出现抵触全球化情绪的部分原因所在。 | |
One heard similar themes in the other pivotal Senate races. In Virginia, apparent winner James Webb denounced outsourcing and blasted Republican George Allen for voting to allow more “foreign guest workers” into the state. In Missouri, victor Claire McCaskill refused to let incumbent Senator James Talent out-hawk her on immigration. “Unfair trade agreements have sent good American jobs packing, hurting Missouri workers and communities,” she said in one of her adverts. “We should be encouraging businesses to stay at home, not rewarding them for moving overseas.” In Michigan, vulnerable Democratic incumbent Deborah Stabenow survived while promising to set up a federal office to prosecute unfair trade by foreign governments. | 鉴于今年的选举结果,目前看来,新国会似乎不太可能延长布什总统的“快速处理”(fast-track)贸易谈判授权。这一授权已于今年夏天到期。对于多哈回合全球贸易谈判,以及美国与韩国等国的双边贸易谈判而言,这样的结果更为糟糕。国会里的民主党人可能会重新张罗对中国征收惩罚性关税,以惩罚他们宣称的“汇率操纵行为”。要说2006年的中期选举迎来了一个新的保护主义共识,这样的说法可能有点过头,但自由贸易主义确实已经不再主导国会山。 |
A much harder-edged nationalism defined many of the critical House races, where Democrats called for a moratorium on trade agreements, for cancelling existing ones, or, in some cases, for slapping protective trade tariffs on China. These candidates also lumped illegal immigrants together with terrorists and demanded a fence along the Mexican border. In Pennsylvania, Democratic challengers defeated Republican incumbents by accusing them of destroying good jobs by voting for the Central American Free Trade Agreement and being soft on illegal immigration. “Fair trade” candidates also won back formerly Republican seats in Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, North Carolina and Wisconsin. | |
Economic nationalism is not unique to Democrats – nor is it a new theme for them. The protectionist wing of the party first emerged in the 1980s when America's manufacturing decline was linked to imports. For years, the protectionist urge was exemplified by Representative Richard Gephardt. But during his 1992 campaign, Bill Clinton made a key decision to support the North American Free Trade Agreement. Mr Clinton espoused a free-trade position and embraced globalisation through his presidency. This set the direction for his party despite significant resistance in Congress. Mr Clinton's argument was always that government should address the negative consequences of open trade through worker retraining programmes and by ensuring benefits not tied to employers, like healthcare and portable pensions. But the human capital part of | 本文作者为Slate.com的编辑 |
As a result of this year's election, it now seems unlikely that the new Congress will extend President Bush's “fast-track” trade negotiating authority, which expires this summer. The results are further bad news for the Doha round and bilateral trade agreements with South Korea and other countries. It is possible that congressional Democrats will revive efforts to saddle China with punitive tariffs as punishment for alleged “currency manipulation”. It would be going too far to say that the 2006 election ushers in a new protectionist consensus. But free trade has definitely left the building. | |
The writer is editor of Slate.com | 译者/何黎 |



