@FT中文网【IMF总裁警告:美元可能暴跌】IMF warns of abrupt dollar fall
2007年10月23日 00:00 AM

SOD - Oct 23

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The dollar hit a record low against the euro yesterday as Rodrigo Rato, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned that the US currency could suffer a dramatic fall that would shake confidence in American assets.

The outgoing IMF managing director said the depreciation of the dollar had been orderly, but cautioned there was a risk of a runaway sell-off that would hit growth in major economies.

The risks of a disorderly fall in the US currency appeared to increase over the weekend after the IMF failed to agree internal reforms that would have set the stage for it to take on a greater role managing global economic imbalances.

“Up to now, movements in exchange rates have been orderly and in line with fundamentals. But there are risks that an abrupt fall in the dollar could either be triggered by, or itself trigger, a loss of confidence in dollar assets,” Mr Rato said.

Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, said the IMF needed to press on with efforts to make its surveillance of member country exchange rate policies more effective, adding it was a “defining issue” for the fund.

“IMF staff need to roll up their sleeves, undertake thorough analysis and put forward their judgments. Without meaningful exchange rate surveillance, governance and management, reform will ring hollow,” he said.

Mr Paulson joined finance ministers from the Group of Seven most advanced economies over the weekend in urging China to let its renminbi appreciate more rapidly.

Some policymakers also expressed concern that the fall in the value of the US dollar was being disproportionately absorbed by currencies such as the euro and Canadian dollar, rather than Asian currencies, including the renminbi.

Mr Rato warned that this trend could hamper growth and fuel support for populist economic policies in these countries, adding that the global economy could be at an “inflection point”.

He said there was “a risk that exchange rate appreciation in countries with flexible exchange rates – including the euro area – could hurt their growth prospects, and that in these circumstances protectionist pressures could worsen”.

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