It is tempting to believe that there is a buying opportunity in Asian stocks. After the savage sell-offs in China and India so far this year, they are certainly better value than they were. Such sentiment probably lay behind yesterday’s big bounce for Indian stocks. | 有一种想法颇具吸引力:亚洲股市目前存在一个买入机会。经过今年以来的大举抛售,中国和印度股市现在肯定比以前更加物有所值。这种思想可能是印度股市昨日大幅反弹背后的原因。 |
However, a nasty combination of inflation and steep valuations suggests their stock markets have not yet come to rest. | 然而,高企的通胀率加上偏高的估值,意味着两国股市还没有达到趋稳的水平。 |
Inflation is an important factor in price/earnings ratios. For years, traders used the “Rule of 20” as a benchmark. This held that the market p/e should be equal to 20 minus the inflation rate. This broke down in the 1990s when p/e ratios exceeded 20, but the idea that higher inflation should lower the multiple paid for companies’ earnings remains valid. | 通货膨胀是影响市盈率的一个关键因素。多年来,交易员们把“20倍法则”当作一个准绳。这一法则认为,股市的市盈率应该等于20减去通胀率。上世纪90年代,随着市盈率超过20倍,这一法则被打破。不过,随着通胀上扬,市盈率理应下降的理论依然成立。 |
Inflation is back as the market’s greatest fear. That fear largely emanates from China and India. Official data show headline inflation of almost 8 per cent in both countries. That is more than double the average for the G7. | 作为市场最害怕的因素,通货膨胀正在卷土重来。而这种担心主要源自中国和印度。官方数据显示,两国的总体通胀率均已接近8%,是七大工业国(G7)平均水平的两倍多。 |
Looking at their earnings multiples, a more worrying picture emerges. The “Chindia” stocks boom was based on multiple expansion rather than any great increase in earnings. | 看看他们股市的市盈率,情况更加不容乐观。“龙象”股市繁荣来自于市盈率的上升,而非企业收益的大幅增加。 |
When it peaked at the beginning of this year, using MSCI data, India’s multiple was almost double that of the All Country-World index. China was only slightly behind, peaking at more than 90 per cent. Three years ago, both traded for less than the average world multiple. | 根据摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)的数据,当印度股市在今年初见顶的时候,其市盈率几乎是全球指数的两倍。中国仅次于此,其历史高点的市盈率比全球指数高出90%。3年前,两国股市的市盈率均低于全球平均水平。 |
Even after China’s stocks have dropped by a half and India’s by a quarter, their multiples remain 23 per cent and 41 per cent above the world’s average p/e ratio. | 即使在中国股市下跌一半、印度股市下跌四分之一之后,他们的市盈率依然分别比全球平均水平高出23%和41%。 |
If inflation is a concern, logic suggests that p/e ratios for Chindia, and much of the rest of Asia outside Japan, should stabilise only when they are some way below the global average. | 如果考虑到通胀因素,逻辑判断就是:对于中国、印度乃至日本以外的多数亚洲国家而言,他们的市盈率只有明显跌至全球平均水平以下,才会趋稳。 |
That implies that they have further to fall. | 这表明,他们仍有下跌空间。 |
译者/苏客 |





