尽管具有美国特色,但共和党政府已将房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)收归国有。结果,美国房地产融资被置于政府直接控制之下,在此过程中,美国政府的总负债(如果正确测算的话)增加了5.4万亿美元,相当于美国国债的总和,占美国国内生产总值(GDP)的40%。 | |
A Republican administration has nationalised Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, though it is nationalisation with US characteristics. As a result, US housing finance has been brought under direct government control and, in the process, the gross liabilities of the US government, properly measured, have increased by $5,400bn (€3,800bn, £3,000bn), a sum equal to the entire publicly held debt and 40 per cent of gross domestic product. | |
Yet the administration is merely recognising the reality that these “government sponsored enterprises” were undertaking a public purpose, at the public's risk, though not without dispensing vast rewards to management along the way. That is a scandal. Whether the body politic will recognise it remains unclear. Since this is a bipartisan mess, the likely answer is No. | |
So what has the administration done? Was there an alternative? Will it work? What lessons should be learned? | 不过,美国政府只是承认,这些“政府支持企业”担负着公共目标,风险由公众承担,尽管并非没有给予管理层巨额回报。这是一桩丑闻。目前尚不清楚,美国国民是否会承认这一点。由于这个烂摊子是两党造成的,答案很可能是否定的。 |
Formally, the Treasury has put the two institutions into a “conservatorship”, which means they are no longer run in the interests of the shareholders; it has established “preferred stock purchase agreements”, to ensure that each company retains a positive net worth; it has created a new secured lending credit facility for the GSEs and the Federal Home Loan Banks; and, finally, it is initiating a “temporary program to purchase GSE mortgage-backed securities (MBS)”. | |
The aim, in the words of Henry (Hank) Paulson, US Treasury secretary, is “to protect the stability of the financial market, and to protect the taxpayer to the maximum extent possible” (the latter being notably ominous words). More specifically, the hope is that the “GSEs will modestly increase their MBS portfolios through the end of 2009. Then, to address systemic risk, in 2010 their portfolios will begin to be gradually reduced at the rate of 10 per cent per year”. | 那么美国政府做了什么?还有其它选择吗?此举能奏效吗?我们应从中吸取什么教训? |
Was there an alternative to such measures? I am talking here not of the precise details, but of the broad decision. The answer is No, for two reasons. | 从形式上看,美国财政部对这两家机构实行了“监护”,意味着其经营不再以股东利益为转移;美国财政部制定了“优先股购买协议”,以确保每家公司的资产净值为正;财政部为政府支持企业和联邦住宅贷款银行(Federal Home Loan Bank)设立了一种新的保证贷款信用;最后,财政部正在发起一个“购买政府支持企业抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)的临时计划”。 |
First, the institutions were unable to raise the capital they needed to offset the losses on their lending in the collapsing US housing market. This threatened their access to finance. That, in turn, would have drastically curtailed their lending, which accounted for more than 80 per cent of US housing finance earlier this year. The result would have been even swifter declines in house prices and a deeper decline in domestic spending. The former might be no bad thing; the latter surely would be. | |
Second, the liabilities of these enterprises were held widely abroad, particularly by central banks and governments. A failure to guarantee these liabilities would have shaken confidence in the US government and currency, possibly to a devastating extent. | 用美国财政部长汉克•保尔森(Hank Paulson)的话说,其目的是“维护金融市场稳定,尽最大可能保护纳税人”(后半句话听着非常不吉利)。更明确地说,财政部是希望“政府支持企业到2009年底前小幅增加其抵押贷款支持证券组合。然后,为了化解系统风险,在2010年,它们开始以每年10%的速度逐渐缩减组合。” |
Will the measures work? If the aim is to sustain the creditworthiness of the GSEs, the answer is Yes, unless there is a general flight from all US government liabilities. The latter is possible, but extremely unlikely. | |
If the aim is to sustain lending to the housing market, it will, again, work. But it will also slow the needed correction in prices, so creating new losses for those who are persuaded to buy now. Some of those losses will ultimately fall on taxpayers. As the needed correction is slowed, the assumption that the GSE portfolios can be reduced from 2010 seems a fantasy. | 除了这些措施,还有其它选择吗?我这里说的不是具体细节,而是广义决策。答案是否定的,原因有二。 |
What, finally, are the lessons, beyond the obvious one that it is idiotic to believe that the prices of any asset class can only go up? It is that the US unwillingness to recognise that socialised risk demands public control has created not just a scandal, but a gigantic mess. | 首先,“两房”无力筹措所需资金,以弥补美国房地产市场崩盘带来的贷款损失。这威胁到它们获得融资的能力,反过来也会大幅减少它们的贷款——今年早些时候,“两房”发放的房贷占美国房贷总额的80%以上。其结果将是房地产价格大幅下跌,国内支出大幅下滑。前者可能并非坏事;后者则肯定是。 |
The US public has ended up with an open-ended guarantee of the liabilities created by supposedly private entities. It is a bad place to be. As Mr Paulson says: “There is a consensus today that these enterprises pose a systemic risk and they cannot continue in their current form.” | |
Amen to that. At some point, they will have to be broken up and sold off. Given the state of the housing market, that happy day is a long way off. | |
其次,这些企业的债务持有者广泛分布在海外,尤其是各国央行和政府。无法为这些债务提供担保,会削弱海外对美国政府和美元的信心,其影响可能是破坏性的。 | |
国有化举措会奏效吗?如果其目的是保持政府支持企业的可信度,那么答案是肯定的,除非投资者普遍逃离美国政府债务。出现后一种结果的可能虽然存在,却非常小。 | |
如果其目的是支撑对房地产市场的贷款,那么答案也是肯定的。但此举同时将放慢所需的价格调整,给那些被说服现在购房的人带来新的损失。其中一些损失最终将落在纳税人头上。由于所需调整速度放慢,认为政府支持企业投资组合可从2010年开始减少的假设似乎是痴人说梦。 | |
除开一个明显的教训,即认为任何一类资产价格只会上涨的看法都是愚蠢的。但除此之外,我们还得到了什么教训呢?那就是美国不愿承认社会化风险需要公众控制的做法,不仅引发了丑闻,而且制造了巨大混乱。 | |
美国公众最终要为本应属于私营的企业提供无限债务担保。这很糟糕。正如保尔森所言:“人们如今的共识是,这些企业造成了系统风险,不能以当前的形式继续下去。” | |
阿门!在某个时刻,它们不得不分拆和出售。鉴于房地产市场的现状,那个好日子还遥遥无期。 | |
译者/梁艳裳 |




