@FT中文网【只有国有化才能救“两房”】FT首席经济评论员沃尔夫:美国政府将房利美和房地美收归国有,除此之外,还有其它选择吗?此举能奏效吗?这对美国房地产市场前景影响如何?我们应从中吸取什么教训?
2008年09月10日 00:00 AM

NO ALTERNATIVE TO NATIONALISATION

背景
中文 评论 打印 电邮 收藏
 

A Republican administration has nationalised Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, though it is nationalisation with US characteristics. As a result, US housing finance has been brought under direct government control and, in the process, the gross liabilities of the US government, properly measured, have increased by $5,400bn (€3,800bn, £3,000bn), a sum equal to the entire publicly held debt and 40 per cent of gross domestic product.

Yet the administration is merely recognising the reality that these “government sponsored enterprises” were undertaking a public purpose, at the public's risk, though not without dispensing vast rewards to management along the way. That is a scandal. Whether the body politic will recognise it remains unclear. Since this is a bipartisan mess, the likely answer is No.

So what has the administration done? Was there an alternative? Will it work? What lessons should be learned?

Formally, the Treasury has put the two institutions into a “conservatorship”, which means they are no longer run in the interests of the shareholders; it has established “preferred stock purchase agreements”, to ensure that each company retains a positive net worth; it has created a new secured lending credit facility for the GSEs and the Federal Home Loan Banks; and, finally, it is initiating a “temporary program to purchase GSE mortgage-backed securities (MBS)”.

The aim, in the words of Henry (Hank) Paulson, US Treasury secretary, is “to protect the stability of the financial market, and to protect the taxpayer to the maximum extent possible” (the latter being notably ominous words). More specifically, the hope is that the “GSEs will modestly increase their MBS portfolios through the end of 2009. Then, to address systemic risk, in 2010 their portfolios will begin to be gradually reduced at the rate of 10 per cent per year”.

Was there an alternative to such measures? I am talking here not of the precise details, but of the broad decision. The answer is No, for two reasons.

First, the institutions were unable to raise the capital they needed to offset the losses on their lending in the collapsing US housing market. This threatened their access to finance. That, in turn, would have drastically curtailed their lending, which accounted for more than 80 per cent of US housing finance earlier this year. The result would have been even swifter declines in house prices and a deeper decline in domestic spending. The former might be no bad thing; the latter surely would be.

Second, the liabilities of these enterprises were held widely abroad, particularly by central banks and governments. A failure to guarantee these liabilities would have shaken confidence in the US government and currency, possibly to a devastating extent.

Will the measures work? If the aim is to sustain the creditworthiness of the GSEs, the answer is Yes, unless there is a general flight from all US government liabilities. The latter is possible, but extremely unlikely.

If the aim is to sustain lending to the housing market, it will, again, work. But it will also slow the needed correction in prices, so creating new losses for those who are persuaded to buy now. Some of those losses will ultimately fall on taxpayers. As the needed correction is slowed, the assumption that the GSE portfolios can be reduced from 2010 seems a fantasy.

What, finally, are the lessons, beyond the obvious one that it is idiotic to believe that the prices of any asset class can only go up? It is that the US unwillingness to recognise that socialised risk demands public control has created not just a scandal, but a gigantic mess.

The US public has ended up with an open-ended guarantee of the liabilities created by supposedly private entities. It is a bad place to be. As Mr Paulson says: “There is a consensus today that these enterprises pose a systemic risk and they cannot continue in their current form.”

Amen to that. At some point, they will have to be broken up and sold off. Given the state of the housing market, that happy day is a long way off.

您可能感兴趣的文章:

全球经济走到十字路口 2009-01-14
从凯恩斯主义反省金融危机 2009-01-06
“撒钱”须防后遗症 2008-12-19

读者评论 评论只代表会员个人观点,不代表FT中文网观点

排序: 评论总数
正在加载评论内容......
[查看所有评论]
未经英国《金融时报》书面许可,对于英国《金融时报》拥有版权和/或其他知识产权的任何内容,任何人不得复制、转载、摘编或在非FT中文网(或:英国《金融时报》中文网)所属的服务器上做镜像或以其他任何方式进行使用。已经英国《金融时报》授权使用作品的,应在授权范围内使用。

栏目简介

马丁·沃尔夫(Martin Wolf) 是英国《金融时报》副主编及首席经济评论员。为嘉奖他对财经新闻作出的杰出贡献,沃尔夫于2000年荣获大英帝国勋爵位勋章(CBE)。他是牛津大学纳菲尔德学院客座研究员,并被授予剑桥大学圣体学院和牛津经济政策研究院(Oxonia)院士,同时也是诺丁汉大学特约教授。自1999年和2006年以来,他分别担任达沃斯(Davos)每年一度“世界经济论坛”的特邀评委成员和国际传媒委员会的成员。2006年7月他荣获诺丁汉大学文学博士;在同年12月他又荣获伦敦政治经济学院科学(经济)博士荣誉教授的称号。