假设在一个与现实社会完全颠倒的世界里有一场拍卖会,拍卖人向出价最高者提供现金,带着一堆各类资产的买家疯狂地竞相叫价。这100万美元是应该卖给前排拿着一堆2006年产的不良抵押贷款证券的那位男士呢?还是卖给他后面那位拿着2005年产的不良证券的女士? | |
Imagine an auction in a looking-glass world, with the auctioneer offering cash to the highest bidder and the participants frantically outbidding each other with a jumble of assorted assets. Should a million dollars be sold to the man in the front row for his bundle of 2006-vintage toxic mortgage securities? Or the lady behind him, for her 2005-vintage offering? | |
That was the auction the US Treasury was hoping to hold until it abruptly changed its plans in November. It was going to spend up to $700bn – the “Tarp” (toxic asset relief programme) fund – buying a variety of toxic assets from banks. The idea made sense: by establishing a market price for these dubious assets, the auction would have improved transparency and helped solvent banks to prove that they really were solvent. | 在去年11月突然改变计划之前,美国财政部曾希望举行这样一场拍卖会。它计划斥资高达7000亿美元——不良资产救助计划(Tarp)基金——从银行手中购买各种不良资产。这个想法是合理的:通过为这些问题资产确定市场价格,拍卖会将改善透明度,帮助有偿付能力的银行证明它们确实具备偿付能力。 |
The Tarp fund was then cannibalised to recapitalise banks (probably a good idea) and then dole out suitcases of cash to all-comers (a less good idea). But the original auction concept should be resurrected, because it solves a problem that has not gone away. | |
And yet – how could the looking-glass auction work without the US Treasury overpaying for junk? Holding a single auction with a single price would be a disaster: only the most worthless assets would have been offered for sale. To do the job properly and establish realistic prices, the auction needs to distinguish between different assets: some good, some bad and some ugly. | 然后,不良资产救助计划基金被抽调去给银行注资(可能是个好主意),接着是把一箱箱现金发给所有参与者(这个主意就不那么好了)。但最初的拍卖理念应被唤醒,因为它可以解决一个尚未得到解决的问题。 |
But simply holding many different auctions is not much better. Once finished, a bank might be surprised by the prices, wishing it had sold more of one kind of asset at a generous price, and fewer of its others. Not only would the banks have acted differently with hindsight, but the Treasury would want them to, in the interests of higher revenue and more price transparency. | |
So two economists from the University of Maryland, Larry Ausubel and Peter Cramton, proposed a dynamic design that would have allowed banks to adjust their bids as the auction proceeded, shifting their emphasis to compete more aggressively wherever prices seemed tempting. The auction was tested to destruction by graduate students and seemed to work well. But there is a flaw: each auction would take a day, with the auction prices affecting financial markets and the markets affecting the auction prices. | 然而,在与现实社会完全颠倒的世界里举办的拍卖会要如何运作,才能不让美国财政部为这些垃圾证券支付过多资金呢?只举办一场拍卖会,只有一个价格,这将是一场灾难:只有那些最没有价值的资产才会被挂牌出售。为了完成好这项任务,制定现实的价格,拍卖会需要区别不同的资产:优秀资产、糟糕资产和难看资产。 |
However, a solution was already being developed to answer a similar problem for the Bank of England. Paul Klemperer, one of the economists behind the 3G mobile spectrum auctions in the UK, has published a paper explaining how the Bank might auction off loans secured against different qualities of collateral. | |
He suggests having banks simultaneously submit combinations of bids. Each bank would be considering different scenarios – one in which loan rates were high and it preferred to borrow the absolute minimum; another in which rates were low and it happily offloaded collateral to the Bank of England. | 但只是举办多场不同的拍卖会,也好不到哪里去。拍卖结束后,银行可能会对拍卖价格感到意外,后悔自己没有以高价出售更多某种资产,而减少其它资产的出售。不仅银行本应根据后见之明采取不同的行动,美国财政部也希望它们这样做,以增加收入和提高价格透明度。 |
The same approach could work for a Tarp auction, too; Klemperer and three economists from Stanford have been working out the details. A computer would compile bids from both sides, with both the banks and the US Treasury saying in advance what they would be willing to buy or sell at different possible prices. The computer would calculate the result. Because each bidder submitted bids to cover each eventuality, the auction should be efficient and nobody would regret having told the computer the truth. | |
Whether the US Treasury will relent and return to an auction remains to be seen. The Tarp auction is a fiendishly difficult design problem, but it looks solvable. At the time of writing, it seems that the Treasury prefers to spend the cash ad hoc. Shame. | |
因此,来自马里兰大学(University of Maryland)的两位经济学家——拉里•奥苏伯尔(Larry Ausubel)和彼得•克拉姆顿(Peter Cramton)——提出了一个动态设计,让银行可以在拍卖过程中调整出价,将重点转向在价格似乎有吸引力时的更积极竞价。经过研究生的破坏性测试,拍卖会似乎运转良好。但缺陷是:每场拍卖需要进行一天——拍卖价格会影响金融市场,市场也会影响拍卖价格。 | |
然而,英国央行(Bank of England)已找到了一种解决类似问题的方法。英国3G移动频段拍卖会背后的经济学家之一保罗•克伦佩雷尔(Paul Klemperer)发表了一篇论文,提出英国央行也许该如何拍卖以不同质量抵押资产获得的贷款。 | |
他建议让各银行同时递交出价组合。每家银行将考虑各种不同情况——一种情况是贷款利率高,银行倾向于借入绝对最小值的贷款;另一种情况是贷款利率低,银行乐意将抵押品交给英国央行。 | |
同样的方式可能也适用于不良资产救助计划拍卖会:克伦佩雷尔和来自斯坦福大学(Stanford)的3位经济学家一直在研究其中的细节。电脑将集合双方的出价,而银行和美国财政部都要事先表示,他们愿意以不同的可能价格购买或出售哪类资产。电脑会计算出结果。因为每位出价者都递交了包含每种可能性的出价,拍卖会应相当是有效的,无人会后悔对电脑讲了实话。 | |
美国财政部是否会大发慈悲,重新举行拍卖会,这仍有待观察。不良资产救助计划拍卖会的设计极其艰难,但似乎是可以解决的。在作者撰文之际,美国财政部似乎更愿意即兴把这笔钱花掉。可惜啊。 | |
译者/梁艳裳 |



