Forget green shoots; think gold-plated ones. Some of the most powerful executives in the luxury sector say consumer confidence is already re-emerging.

“I expect consumers to return to shops by Christmas,” said Diego Della Valle, chairman of Tods Group, the Italian group, who spoke at the Financial Times' Business of Luxury summit in Monaco earlier this week. “I can already feel the change in their thinking.”

Bernard Arnault, chairman of Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMH), the largest luxury goods group in the world, said, “the multiplication of products at low prices will have the effect of actually strengthening the demand for products of higher quality and higher prices. We don't buy our dreams at the supermarket.”

Though both men were quick to note the sector would look very different in 2010, with a number of competing brands disappearing under the weight of their leverage and more demanding consumers, Mr Arnault added, “it would be wrong to say nothing will be like it used to be.”

Josh Schulman, chief executive of Jimmy Choo, agreed that despite statements from many department stores that consumers were only interested in cheaper items, he did not believe price was currently a barrier to entry.

“Our most expensive shoe, which costs over $1,300, is one of our most popular,” he said. “If an item creates desire, it still sells.”

There was consensus on the need for brands to return to what Angela Ahrendts, chief executive of Burberry, labelled “core values,” as well as to add a dimension of sustainability to both their products and their business practices.

Not every part of the luxury sector was so optimistic. Lisa Rachal, chief luxury goods analyst at Redburn Partners, attributed the positive mood to the fact that “things were not getting any worse” even though they were not getting any better, while Nick Candy, joint chief executive of luxury property developer Candy & Candy, said talk of recovery was wishful thinking.

“When the sun goes away and the summer ends, we're all going to wake up and see things are as barren as ever,” he said.

According to Mr Candy, the construction industry had come virtually to a stand still, and it was cheaper to buy a house in Mayfair today than to build one.

“There is still no liquidity,” he said. “Banks are not lending. This has still not been sorted.”

Bain and Company, the consultants, has predicted the luxury market, which was worth €170bn ($236bn) in both 2007 and 2008, would contract 10 per cent in 2009 and rise 1 per cent in 2010.