@FT中文网【印度经济正陷入通缩】批发价格指数30年来首次下降。但印度官员和分析师表示,这并不意味着需求萎缩
2009年06月19日 07:07 AM

印度经济正陷入通缩
India resolute despite slip into deflation

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India's economy has slipped into deflation, according to its closely watched wholesale price index, but officials and analysts said the first decline in wholesale prices in 30 years did not signify a contraction in demand.

备受关注的批发价格指数显示,印度经济已陷入通缩,但官员和分析师表示,批发价格指数30年来首次下降,并不意味着需求萎缩。

India's wholesale prices levels fell 1.6 per cent during the week ending June 6, compared with their 13 per cent increase the previous week, the first time since the financial year ending March 1978 that the index has fallen.

截至6月6日的一周内,印度批发价格水平下降1.6%,而此前一周则上涨13%。这是自截至1978年3月的财年以来,该指数首次出现下降。

Ashok Chawla, the finance ministry's top official, said the price drop did not signify a deterioration in India's overall economic conditions, however, nor would it lead to any shift in economic policy.

不过,印度财政部最高官员阿夏克•朝拉(Ashok Chawla)表示,价格下降并不表示印度的总体经济状况出现恶化,也不会令经济政策发生任何变动。

“These numbers do not reflect any contraction of demand,” he said. “In fact, we are doing well and the country is on the path of improved economic performance.”

他表示:“这些数据并不说明需求出现任何萎缩。事实上,我们做得很好,印度的经济表现正在好转。”

Rohini Malkani, chief economist at Citigroup, said the declining price levels were largely statistical and caused by the sharply lower fuel prices. However, she said India still faced inflationary pressures. “You will see negative numbers for the following weeks, but by year-end we do expect inflation to go back to around 4 per cent,” Ms Malkani said. “It's not like deflation because of no demand and people slashing prices.”

花旗(Citigroup)首席经济学家罗希尼•马尔卡尼(Rohini Malkani)表示,价格下降主要是统计因素所致,是燃料价格骤降造成的。但她表示,印度仍面临着通胀压力。“未来几周的数据会是负值,但我们预计,到今年底,通胀水平将回升至4%左右,”马尔卡尼表示。“这与需求蒸发、人们大幅减价所导致的通缩不一样。”

Amit Mitra, the secretary-general of the Federation of Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said the decline in the price of some items, including basic metal alloys, machine tools and machines, reflected a slowdown in investment.

印度工商联合会(FICCI)秘书长阿米特•密特拉(Amit Mitra)表示,基本金属合金、机床和机器等部分商品的价格下降,反映出投资有所放缓。

A year ago, Indian policy-makers were battling inflation, which peaked at nearly 13 per cent in August. While wholesale prices may have fallen, consumer prices remain a concern, at about 8 per cent higher than last year.

一年前,印度政策制定者忙于抗击通胀,通胀率在去年8月份达到近13%的峰值水平。虽然批发价格有所下降,但消费者价格指数较去年高出大约8%,仍然令人担忧。

With the first weeks of India's monsoon season drier than usual, prices of some basic foodstuffs are fast shooting up in some urban areas, as traders snap up supplies in anticipation of a poor harvest.

今年,印度雨季头几周的雨量少于正常水平,随着经销商在粮食歉收的预期下抢购供给,一些城市地区的部分基本粮食价格正在飙升。

Mr Mitra said persistent high food prices highlighted the need for the government to adopt policies “to enhance the supply of critical food items”.

密特拉表示,持续高企的食品价格凸显出,政府有必要采取“增强关键食品供给”的政策。

India's economy grew 6.7 per cent in the financial year ended in March, a significant slowdown from the 9 per cent average annual growth recorded for the previous few years.

在截至今年3月的财年中,印度经济增长6.7%,与过去数年9%的平均年增长率相比,速度大幅放缓。

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