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The wheels of government in China and Japan often turn slowly, but when it comes to fixing perhaps the most dangerous faultline in relations between the two Asian powers, they appear to have ground to a complete halt. | 中国和日本的政府机器往往缓慢运转,但在修复也许是两个亚洲强国之间最危险的关系裂痕时,这些机器似乎完全停转。 |
More than a year after Beijing and Tokyo sealed a landmark deal jointly to exploit gas reserves in disputed areas of the East China Sea, officials on the two sides have yet to hold a serious meeting to work out the details of how to implement it. | 一年多以前,中日两国政府签署了一项具有里程碑意义的协议:共同开发东海争议水域的天然气储量。但双方官员迄今仍未举行认真的会议以细化实施方案。 |
The lack of action on the June 2008 agreement is troubling. Feuding over gas reserves by Asia's two most energy-hungry economies has for years been seen as a security tinderbox made no less incendiary by its maritime location. Stable Sino-Japanese relations are as important for Asia as Franco-German amity is for Europe – but considerably harder to achieve given a host of unresolved historical issues and the naturally destabilising effect of China's growing economic and military power. | 这项2008年6月签署的协议迄今没有后续动作,这令人不安。多年来,亚洲两大能源消费国为天然气储量而不和,一直被视为一项安全隐患,即使这些储备藏在海底,也丝毫未能降低其危险性。如同法德亲睦对欧洲的重要性一样,稳定的中日关系对亚洲也非常重要——但由于诸多历史问题尚未解决,加上中国经济军事实力的日益强大必然会带来一些不稳定影响,实现中日友好的难度要大得多。 |
Even more disturbingly, given that growing power, the blame for the gas go-slow lies mainly with Beijing. Over the past 12 months, Japanese government leaders have repeatedly mentioned the need for action on the gas deal during routine exchanges. But their Chinese counterparts have declined to hold any serious sit-downs. | 但更令人不安的是,鉴于中国的实力逐渐增强,人们将天然气开发进展缓慢的责任主要都推到北京头上。过去12个月,日本政府首脑在定期的交流期间,再三提及对这项协议采取行动的必要性。但中国方面一直拒绝坐下来进行任何认真的商讨。 |
So it remains unclear how the two sides might carry out their joint exploration and eventual development of gas reserves in the area set aside under the deal, or whether Japanese companies will be able to invest in a controversial Chinese gas project. | 因此,仍不清楚双方会如何实施对协议划定区域天然气储量的联合勘探,并最终进行开发,也不清楚日本公司能否投资于有争议的中国天然气项目。 |
“We have no idea when they will be ready to move on this,” says a Japanese official familiar with the issue, saying the biggest stumbling block appears to be worries among Beijing policymakers about public opinion. | “他们何时准备在这个问题上采取行动,我们不得而知,”一位熟悉相关事务的日本官员表示。他说,最大的障碍似乎是北京决策者对于公众舆论的担忧。 |
There is little denying that many Chinese are highly sensitive to any perceived territorial concessions to Japan. Last year's deal was immediately assaulted on the Chinese internet as the work of “traitors”. | 很难否认,许多中国人对于向日本作出领土让步的观感高度敏感。去年的协议达成后,中国网民立即抨击它为“卖国”条约。 |
Beijing leaders are particularly nervous amid this year's string of politically sensitive anniversaries: of the 1949 founding of the People's Republic, the 1989 crackdown in Tiananmen Square and the 1999 suppression of the Falun Gong sect. “It's quite logical that they don't want to play up the [gas] issue now,” the Japanese official says, charitably. | 今年,中国会迎来一系列颇具政治敏感性的周年纪念——1949年中华人民共和国成立,1989年天安门镇压事件,1999年镇压法轮功——值此之际,中国领导人的神经尤为紧张。日本一名官员宽容地说:“他们现在不愿渲染(天然气)问题,这十分合乎逻辑。” |
Yet Tokyo can also be faulted for the delay. Japanese policymakers – often willing to wilt in the face of nationalist pressure – have been largely content to let Beijing put the gas deal on a back-burner rather than risk the ire of homegrown rightwingers who say it is Japan that is being sold out. | 不过,东京对拖延也有一定责任。日本决策者往往愿意在民族主义压力面前退缩,他们基本上愿意让中国搁置天然气协议,而不敢引起本国右翼分子的愤怒——这些人宣称,日本才是遭到出卖的一方。 |
Japanese officials saw the 2008 agreement itself as something of a coup, given it marked at least an implicit acceptance by Beijing of the need to engage with Japan's claim that the border between the two countries' exclusive economic zones runs along a “median line” between the two nations. China's claimed EEZ border is based on its continental shelf and runs much closer to Japan's coast. | 日本官员将2008年这项协议本身视为某种成功,因为它表明,北京至少默认有必要针对日本的主张进行交涉,日方主张,两国专属经济区的边界应当是两国之间的“中线”。中国则主张,以大陆架的自然延伸为依据划分专属经济区,这样边界更靠近日本海岸线。 |
Japan is reluctant to offer any concessions that might strengthen China's hand in a separate dispute over ownership of a group of uninhabited islands known in Japanese as the Senkaku and in Chinese as the Diaoyu. | 在另一项领土主权争议中,日本不愿做出可能增强中国政府地位的任何让步。争议领土是一组无人居住的岛屿,在日语中称为尖阁列岛(Senkaku),在中文中则称为钓鱼岛。 |
Still, officials on both sides can reasonably argue that even without solving anything, the mere sealing of the gas deal drew poison from a long-festering diplomatic wound. | 不过,双方官员都可以合理地辩称,即使没有解决任何问题,签署天然气协议本身,也为一个长期溃烂的外交脓疮排出一些毒素。 |
Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, says that while it is clear that neither side is willing to offer further compromises, they are at least determined to avoid escalation. “It's mature management,” Prof Shi says. | 中国人民大学国际关系教授时殷弘表示,尽管双方显然都无意做出进一步让步,但他们至少有决心避免升级。“处理手段很成熟,”时教授表示。 |
Yet there have also been recent reminders of the dangers of inaction. Tokyo has complained about Chinese exploration of areas not covered by the agreement. Protests have been exchanged over the appearance of Chinese survey ships near the Japanese-controlled Senkaku islands and Tokyo's subsequent stationing of a helicopter-equipped coastguard vessel in the area. | 不过,近来一些事件也提醒人们注意不作为的风险。日本抱怨中国在协议划定区外进行勘探。中国海洋调查船出现在日本控制的钓鱼岛附近海域,日本随后派遣装备直升机的海上保安厅巡逻船常驻该处海域,双方都向对方提出了抗议。 |
So there are good reasons for both sides to match the lofty rhetoric of Wen Jiabao, Chinese premier, who in 2007 pledged to “make the East China Sea a sea of peace, friendship and co-operation”. | 因此,中日都有很好的理由用行动兑现中国总理温家宝的高调。温家宝2007年承诺,“使东海成为和平、友好、合作之海。” |
Even if the area's vaunted gas reserves do not disappoint, few imagine that the economic benefit they might offer either side could ever be more than a fraction of the potential gains from peaceful and friendly commercial co-operation. | 即使这片海域内人们吹嘘的天然气储量未令人失望,也很少有人相信,这些资源为任何一方可能带来的经济利益,抵得上和平、友好的商业合作所带来的潜在收益的一点零头。 |
With its population ageing fast and its relative economic edge eroding, Japan would be wise to try to excise any canker from its ties with China earlier rather than later. | 随着人口迅速老龄化,及其相对经济优势不断受到侵蚀,日本最好还是尽早切除中日关系中所有的坏痈。 |
For Beijing's part, an uncompromising approach can only further fuel international worries about its rising clout, especially given a sharpening of its tone on territorial claims in the South China Sea in recent months. | 对于中国而言,采取不妥协的态度只能进一步激起国际上对其影响力与日俱增的担忧,尤其是近月来,中国在南海主权问题上的语气趋向强硬。 |
Last year's agreement was not easily won: it arrived more than half a year after the expiration of an autumn 2007 deadline set by Mr Wen and Shinzo Abe, then Japanese prime minister. Now the leaders of both sides should set a new deadline for implementation – and this time they should make sure it is kept. | 去年达成协议并非易事:较温家宝与时任日本首相的安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)2007年秋设定的最后期限,已经迟到了半年多。如今,双方领导人应当设定一个新的期限将其付诸实施,而且这一次他们应当确保遵守这一期限。 |
译者/何黎 |



