@FT中文网【经济学家:中国刺激方案加剧经济失衡】一些经济学家表示,这可能推迟中国经济转型
2009年08月21日 07:05 AM

经济学家:中国刺激方案加剧经济失衡
CHINA STIMULUS RISKS DAMAGING DEVELOPMENT

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China's much-vaunted stimulus package has exacerbated structural imbalances in the economy and may delay the country's transition to a more sustainable growth model, according to some leading economists.

一些领先经济学家指出,中国声势浩大的刺激方案加剧了经济中的结构性失衡,可能推迟中国向更具可持续性增长模式的转型。

Most analysts regard the Rmb4,000bn ($585bn, €410bn, £355bn) plan, unveiled in November, as an appropriate response to the crisis and say it pulled the economy out of what could have been a much deeper slump.

在多数分析师看来,去年11月出台的4万亿元人民币(合5850亿美元)刺激方案,是对经济危机的恰当回应,并表示,这些刺激措施使中国经济摆脱了低迷。若非如此,中国经济可能已陷入深得多的衰退。

However, as the effects of the stimulus fade, some now say the response was too aggressive and that the government's focus on an unprecedented credit expansion and a massive infrastructure boost has aggravated the country's stark economic imbalances.

不过,随着刺激的效应消退,一些人现在表示,中国的回应过于激进,而政府聚焦于空前的信贷扩张和规模庞大的基础设施投资,加剧了中国经济的显著失衡。

“The economy's structural problems have been made worse by the stimulus programme,” Wang Yijiang, a professor of economics at the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in Beijing, told the Financial Times.

“刺激方案使得经济中的结构性问题变得更为严重,”北京长江商学院经济学教授王一江告诉英国《金融时报》。

He pointed to resurgent asset bubbles in the stock and property markets and the fact that most of the stimulus had gone to the state sector, while smaller private enterprises, which create the most jobs, had been left largely to fend for themselves.

他指出,股市和楼市重现资产泡沫,而且多数刺激资金流向国营部门,而创造出最多就业机会的中小型民营企业,基本上只能依靠自己寻找出路。

“The stimulus package was a response to a crisis rather than aimed at rebalancing China's growth model,” said Jonathan Woetzel, a director in McKinsey's Shanghai office. “In the short term, Beijing's stimulus and monetary policy are perpetuating the imbalances.”

“刺激方案是针对危机的反应,而不是旨在调整中国的增长模式,”麦肯锡(McKinsey)上海办事处的董事华强森(Jonathan Woetzel)表示。“短期而言,北京的刺激措施和货币政策正在延长失衡局面。”

A report published today by the McKinsey Global Institute points out that 89 per cent of the entire stimulus package is devoted to infrastructure investment such as roads and railways, while just 8 per cent is allocated to supporting consumption.

麦肯锡全球研究所(McKinsey Global Institute)昨日发表的一份报告指出,在中国整个刺激方案中,有89%投入公路和铁路等基础设施,只有8%被安排用于支持消费。

Private consumption in China has declined sharply as a share of overall GDP since the mid-1980s, accounting for only 36 per cent – the lowest ratio of any major economy, reflecting China's reliance on investment as its main growth driver.

自上世纪80年代中期以来,私人消费在中国GDP中所占比例大幅下降,目前仅为36%,是大型经济体中的最低水平,这反映出中国依赖投资作为增长的主要推动力。

“Today's low consumption share is systemic, and China will not be able to tackle this issue without comprehensive reform that includes structural change,” says the report.

“目前消费比例较低是系统性的,中国若不能推行包括结构性变革在内的全面改革,就无法解决问题,”报告表示。

“China's economic growth profile has been very employment-light and there is a need to rebalance investment away from the traditional emphasis on heavy industry and infrastructure towards smaller, private enterprises, especially in the services sector,” said Mr Woetzel.

“从中国经济增长的特征看,一直很不重视就业,有必要调整投资平衡,从重工业和基础设施这样的传统重点,转向中小型民营企业,尤其是服务业,”华强森表示。

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