Lakshmi Mittal's predictions for a strong rebound in the world steel industry next year are too optimistic and recovery is likely to be substantially more muted, industry executives and analysts say.

The chairman and main owner of ArcelorMittal, the world's biggest steelmaker, has forecast a rise in global production in 2010 of at least 10 per cent, but others expect a rebound to be substantially smaller and as low as 5 per cent.

Demand for steel – which feeds into a huge range of sectors – is regarded as an important bellwether of industrial trends. But there has been little sign of a pick-up outside China, especially in key markets such as the US.

Olof Faxander, chief executive of SSAB, Sweden's biggest steel maker, said: “I am not as optimistic as Mr Mittal about 2010. There will be a recovery, but it will be from a very low base and there are a lot of risks attached.”

Dan Dimicco, chairman of Nucor, US second-biggest steelmaker, said: “I'd be cautious about being overly optimistic for next year. The US faces an extended period of low growth. It's hard to see the world going crazy [in terms of steel consumption] without a substantial contribution from the US.”

According to Matthias Hellstern, an analyst at the Moody's credit rating agency, world steel demand next year is likely to be about 5 per cent. “So far, especially outside China, there has been little sign of a real pick-up in demand in the product areas such as construction and cars that rely on steel,” he said.

Mr Mittal – whose steel company is by far the biggest in the world – made public his projections to the Financial Times in late July. The company said he had not changed his forecasts and that they remained current.

The Indian entrepreneur is counting on a strong rebound in emerging markets including China, Brazil and India.