@FT中文网【美元贬值:中国的机遇】近几个月来美元加速贬值,而中国领导人对此事的公开讨论却有所减少。美元有节制的下跌其实符合中国的短期利益。
2009年10月19日 15:21 PM

美元贬值:中国的机遇
BEIJING GLIMPSES OPPORTUNITY IN THE GREENBACK'S DECLINE

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Scepticism about US financial policy is widespread in China. With its $2,270bn in foreign currency reserves, an estimated 70 per cent of which are in US dollar assets, Beijing's pride in its own relative ascendancy against the US over the past year is mixed with fear that Washington will seek to inflate away its massive debt. Indeed the audience at a Beijing university talk by Tim Geithner laughed out loud when the US Treasury secretary said China's huge investment in US bonds was safe.

在中国,人们普遍对美国金融政策怀有疑虑。坐拥2.27万亿美元的外汇储备——估计其中70%是美元资产,中国政府一方面对过去一年相对美国的地位上升感到自豪,一方面又担心华盛顿试图利用通胀来化解自身的庞大债务。实际上,当美国财长蒂姆•盖特纳(Tim Geithner)在北京大学的一次演讲中表示,中国对美国国债的巨额投资是安全的时候,在座观众当时笑出了声。

Even the country's leaders have stepped in. Premier Wen Jiabao said in March: “I request the US to maintain its good credit, to honour its promises and to guarantee the safety of China's assets.”

甚至连国家领导人也介入其中。中国总理温家宝今年3月说:“我想再次重申要求美国保持信用,信守承诺,保证中国资产的安全。”

Yet in recent months, as the depreciation in the dollar has gathered pace, there has been less public discussion about the issue by Chinese leaders. In part, Beijing realises its comments could hasten the dollar's decline. Moreover, a measured fall has served its short- term interests. Given the renminbi has in effect been re-pegged to the dollar since the middle of 2008, the struggling export sector has found some relief as the Chinese currency has followed the dollar down against its other trading partners.

然而近几个月来,随着美元加速贬值,中国领导人对此事的公开讨论有所减少。部分原因在于,北京方面意识到,它的评论可能加速美元的下跌。此外,一轮有节制的下跌符合中国的短期利益。自2008年年中以来,人民币实际上已重新与美元挂钩,因此,人民币兑其它贸易伙伴国货币的汇率追随美元走低,在一定程度上缓解了举步维艰的出口部门所面临的压力。

So far, too, China's bark has been worse than its bite. Monthly data on Treasury bond purchases seem to indicate Beijing remains a major buyer of US bonds. The debate has shifted to a more long-term one about the future role of the dollar and the renminbi. Ahead of the April Group of 20 leading nations summit, Zhou Xiaochuan, central bank governor, proposed replacing the dollar as the global reserve currency with a basket of currencies managed by the International Monetary Fund. Beijing has since taken steps to boost the global role of its currency, including setting up a pilot programme for Chinese companies to settle trade orders in renminbi, and held talks with Russia and Brazil about settling bilateral trade in each others' currencies.

此外,迄今为止,中国还是雷声大雨点小。美国国债买入量的月度数据似乎表明,中国仍是美国债券的一个主要买家。辩论重点已转向美元和人民币未来角色这一更为长远的问题。在今年4月的20国集团(G20)峰会前夕,中国央行行长周小川提议,用国际货币基金组织(IMF)管理下的一篮子货币代替美元作为全球储备货币。自那以来,中国政府采取了多项举措,以提升人民币的全球地位,其中包括设立试点项目,让中国企业以人民币结算贸易订单,以及与俄罗斯和巴西就双边贸易本币结算进行会谈。

However, even within China there is a recognition that any changes in the status of the dollar are distant. “The market is too pessimistic on the dollar in my opinion. As long as the United States is still the most competitive and innovative economy, the US dollar will remain the most important currency and the global reserve currency,” says Guo Shuqing, chairman of China Construction Bank, one of the country's largest. “I would like the renminbi to be a hard currency like the dollar or euro, but this will take a long time.”

不过,即使在中国国内,也存在这样一种看法,即美元地位的任何改变都将是十分遥远的事情。中国建设银行(CCB)董事长郭树清表示:“我认为市场对美元的看法过于悲观。只要美国仍是最具竞争力和创新能力的经济体,美元作为最重要货币和全球储备货币的地位就不会改变。”“我希望人民币成为像美元或欧元那样的硬通货,但这需要很长的时间。”建设银行是中国最大的银行之一。

China needs to abandon currency controls and develop a large market-driven, domestic bond market, economists say, for the renminbi to play a global role.

经济学家表示,要想让人民币扮演全球角色,中国必须取消货币管制,并发展形成一个受市场驱动的大型本土债券市场。

Yet economic reformers now have an important card to play. In the past, their ideas were often criticised for being too western. By presenting relaxation of currency controls as a challenge to the dominance of the dollar, they are able to give their proposals a nationalist veneer.

不过,经济改革家目前握有一张王牌。过去,他们的想法往往因为过于西化而遭到非议。而今,他们可以把放松货币管制描述为一种对美元统治地位的挑战,从而为自己的提议披上一件民族主义的外衣。

译者/何黎

杰夫•代尔上一篇文章:

中国一学者被判10年监禁 2009-10-19

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