@FT中文网【危机中的“国进”论】FT亚洲版主编皮林:四万亿投资,介入中铝收购案,支持国企利用法律手段解除衍生品合约,大型国企收购小型私有企业……中国政府之手正逐步伸向幕前。
2009年10月20日 10:43 AM

危机中的“国进”论
The state's dead hand returns to haunt China

背景
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Until the financial crisis laid low the notion that markets were infallible, the assumption had always been that, as China grew richer, the state would wither. In part, the argument was circular. If China were to continue to prosper, the dead hand of government would have to be loosened in order to give private enterprise the space to create wealth. That glib logic has been jettisoned, at least temporarily. If even Washington has turned some of the captains of American industry into glorified civil servants, it should come as no surprise that Beijing, too, has become more statist.

在金融危机打倒了“市场无过”论之前,人们一直认为,随着中国变得更加富有,政府势力将逐渐削弱。在某种程度上,这是一种循环论证。中国要想继续繁荣,政府就必须松开管制之手,为私营企业提供创造财富的空间。这套圆滑的逻辑已经不再受人追捧,至少暂时是这样。如果连华盛顿都把美国产业的一些掌舵人变成了光荣的公务员,那么北京方面加大对经济的集中控制,应该也不足为奇。

The most obvious example is China's monetary and fiscal stimulus. Beijing, like other governments, has massively cranked up spending, in its case announcing plans to funnel Rmb4,000bn, equivalent to 15 per cent of output, into infrastructure over two years. As well as the usual fare of roads and bridges, it is also trying to build up soft infrastructure, the social safety net economists say is necessary if people are to spend. After years of laying off tens of millions of state workers and dismantling the iron bowl of cradle-to-grave care, China is seeking to rebuild a mini-welfare state.

最明显的例子是中国的货币和财政刺激政策。与其它国家的政府一样,中国政府大幅提高了开支水平。北京方面宣布的计划是,在未来两年里向基建部门投入4万亿人民币,相当于中国经济产出的15%。除了路桥等传统项目外,中国政府还试图建设“软基础设施”,即经济学家称之为促进居民消费必要条件的社会保障网络。过去几年,中国有数千万国企员工下岗,打破了有着终生保障的铁饭碗,而今中国政府正试图重建一个“微型福利国家”。

This state re-encroachment – entirely necessary given the collapse of external demand, in spite of signs of improvement in yesterday's trade figures – is more obvious still in the banking industry. State owned banks, which now have foreign shareholders, have suddenly decided that this is the time to lend. This year, they have seen fit to increase credit in local currency by more than 160 per cent. No one can possibly imagine this is the choice of free agents responding to market signals.

政府这次再度插手——尽管14日发布的贸易数字显现出好转的迹象,但是鉴于外部需求一蹶不振,这么做完全有必要——在银行业表现得更为明显。已经拥有外国股东的各大国有银行突然决定,放贷的时机已经到来。今年,以本币计价的信贷总额增加了160%以上,而银行并不认为有何不妥。难以想象这会是自由主体根据市场信号所做的选择。

Much of the banks' money has been lent not to small private enterprises, but to big state conglomerates, many of which do not really need the cash. Some are putting loans straight back into the bank. Much is leaking out into real estate and equity investments, creating concerns about asset bubbles. If, as many suspect, the rash of lending eventually leads to a leap in non-performing loans, most banks probably expect the state to wipe the slate clean.

得到大部分银行信贷资金的不是小型私有企业,而是大型国有企业集团,其中许多并不是真的需要现金。一些企业把贷款直接存回了银行。大量资金被偷偷用于房地产和股票投资,引发了关于资产泡沫的担忧。如果像许多人所怀疑的那样,大举放贷最终导致不良贷款激增,大多数银行大概会指望政府来收拾残局。

All of this is a logical and – so far, at least – successful response to last year's monumental external shock. After all, China is expected to grow by more than 8 per cent this year, not bad in a year when virtually all its rivals are shrinking. But in other ways, too, the hand of the state – not to mention its boot – is becoming more visible.

对于去年那场巨大的外部冲击,所有这一切都是合乎逻辑而且——至少到目前为止——富有成效的应对之策。毕竟,今年中国经济的增长率预计将超过8%,在几乎所有竞争对手都出现负增长的年份里,这一成绩不算糟糕。但在其它方面,政府之手——更不用说“政府之靴”——也正逐渐伸向幕前。

One is in the commodity markets. China has recently announced a rash of investments around the world designed to secure access to the hydrocarbons it needs to fuel its energy-thirsty growth. This week, it was learned, Beijing has offered the west African state of Guinea billions of dollars in infrastructure loans in return for rights to explore for offshore oil. CNOOC, one of China's big three energy groups, has made a pitch to prise Nigerian oil blocs away from western oil majors. That followed other loan-for-fuel deals with Kazakhstan, Russia, Brazil, Venezuela and Angola.

一是大宗商品市场。中国近来宣布了一系列全球范围的投资计划,旨在确保碳氢化合物资源的供应,为其能源饥渴型的增长模式提供所需的燃料。据悉,上周北京方面向西非国家几内亚提供了数十亿美元的基建贷款,以换取近海石油的开采权。中国三大能源集团之一——中海油(CNOOC)已经投标,要从西方石油巨头手中赢得对尼日利亚石油区块的控制。此前,中国还与哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯、巴西、委内瑞拉和安哥拉达成了贷款换燃料的交易。

In part, these investments are inevitable given China's huge foreign currency reserves and its unwillingness to pour billions more down the drain marked “US Treasuries”. But they also reflect a loss of confidence in spot markets, where China has traditionally been told it can most efficiently meet its energy needs.

鉴于中国外汇储备规模庞大,又不愿再往美国国债的无底洞里倾注数十亿资金,上述投资在一定程度上是不可避免的。但这些投资也反映出中国已对现货市场丧失信心——中国以前通常得到的信息是,现货市场能最有效的满足其能源需求。

State efforts to secure resources are not limited to oil and gas. An attempt by Chinalco, China's biggest aluminium producer, to invest $19.5bn in Rio Tinto, the Anglo-Australian miner, was similarly motivated. Not long after the deal collapsed, four executives from Rio Tinto – one involved in the fraught process of negotiating iron ore prices – were arrested, initially on charges tantamount to spying. Rightly or not, the impression given was that the Chinese state is ready to show its claws when its commercial interests are threatened.

政府获取资源的努力并不仅限于石油和天然气领域。中国最大的铝制造商中国铝业(Chinalco)试图以195亿美元投资英澳矿商力拓(Rio Tinto)的举动,也是出于类似的动机。交易谈崩后不久,四名力拓高管被捕——其中一名参与了困难重重的铁矿石价格谈判,对他们的最初指控相当于间谍罪。无论理由正当与否,外界得到的印象是,当商业利益受到威胁时,中国政府随时准备露出利爪。

A third area of what could be seen as creeping state resurgence came last month when the gloriously named State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (now say that again) backed legal efforts by Chinese companies to break loss-making derivatives contracts with foreign banks. The implicit warning from the state body was not so much that China's companies should refrain from casino capitalism as that foreign banks should not supply them the chips.

可被视为政府势力暗中抬头的第三个领域于上月进入人们的视线。名号气派的国务院国有资产监督管理委员会(SASAC)——再说一遍试试——支持中国企业通过法律手段解除与外资银行签订的、造成亏损的衍生品合约。这家政府机构发出的含蓄警告,与其说是要求中国公司远离赌场资本主义,不如说是禁止外资银行为其提供赌博的筹码。

There is another way in which the financial crisis has exacerbated the trend known as guojinmintui, literally the state advances as the private sector retreats. State-led companies that have received massive stimulus-related loans now have the wherewithal to buy private enterprises, some of which are struggling in the downturn. In one example, a consortium led by state-owned China National Oils, Foodstuffs, and Cereals Group, the country's largest importer and exporter of food, grabbed 20 per cent of Mengniu Dairy, China's largest milk producer. That gave the state a majority share and, sure enough, a few months later, Mengniu's founder was replaced by a state-appointed executive. Some China-watchers were never really convinced the state was on the retreat. Few can doubt that, for now at least, it is advancing.

金融危机还以另一种方式加剧了被人们称为“国进民退”的趋势,这个词的字面意思是国家进步而私人部门退步。受政府掌控的各家公司获得了大量与刺激计划有关的贷款,从而具备了收购私有企业所需的必要资金——其中一些私有企业正在经济低迷期举步维艰。举例说,中国最大的食品进出口商、国有企业中粮集团(COFCO)拿到了中国最大液态奶制造商蒙牛乳业(Mengniu Dairy) 20%的股份。这笔交易使政府获得了多数股股权。不出所料,几个月后,蒙牛创始人的职务便由一名政府任命的高管接替。一些中国观察家从未真正相信过“国退”一说。至少就目前而言,“国进”是毋容置疑的。

译者/何黎

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戴维•皮林(David Pilling)是英国《金融时报》亚洲版主编。他的专栏涉及到商业、投资、政治和经济方面的话题。皮林1990年加入FT。他曾经在伦敦、智利、阿根廷工作过。在成为亚洲版主编之前,他担任FT东京分社的社长。