China's manufacturing sector grew last month at the fastest pace since April 2008, confirming the nation's economic recovery, according to the country's official purchasing managers' index released yesterday.

Analysts said the survey results show that export demand and consumption were joining government stimulus as drivers of growth.

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said its index rose to 55.2 from 54.3 a month earlier, the eighth straight monthly reading above 50, the threshold marking economic growth.

The index had dropped to 38.8 last November but moved back into positive territory in March.

The reading for new export orders rose from 53.3 in September to 54.5, and imports, which had lagged the overall index in showing recovery, jumped from 50.7 to 52.8.

Zhang Liqun, an economist at a think-tank under the State Council, China's cabinet, said the broad recovery in demand indicated that economic growth would accelerate. “The growth rate in the fourth quarter is likely to be 9.5 per cent.”

The government has said that gross domestic product rose by 8.9 per cent in the third quarter and 7.9 per cent in the second.

The survey's October results looked particularly strong compared with past readings for the same month. “Although the official PMI is supposed to be seasonally adjusted already, it still exhibits a clear and strong seasonal pattern,” said Yu Song and Helen Qiao, two economists at Goldman Sachs, in a note to clients. “Since the start of the series in 2005, its October readings were 1.0 per cent, 2.3 per cent, 2.9 per cent, and 6.6 per cent lower than September readings in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 respectively.”

Jing Ulrich, chairman of China equities and commodities at JPMorgan Chase, said the recovery in demand would help offset a possible slowdown in government spending. “While public investment may moderate in the months ahead, private real estate investment, consumer spending and export demand should drive growth in the coming months,” she said.

Ms Ulrich said a sharp rebound in new housing starts in September boded well for the months ahead.

“The improvement in China's trade outlook should alleviate problems with overcapacity in some manufacturing industries and reduce the importance of government-backed investment in the next several quarters,” she added.