When I asked a Chinese academic last December what the main themes of 2009 would be, he named two big problems – the economy and Copenhagen.

The economy was pretty obvious. At the time we spoke, there were dark warnings about millions of disgruntled workers roaming the countryside. On Copenhagen, his worry was that as the world's largest emitter of carbon, China would become the lightning rod for global anxiety about climate change. If the December summit in Denmark collapsed without agreement, he pointed out, the inevitable demonisation of China could begin to threaten its development.

Almost a year later, both concerns have faded. China's economy is growing faster than most, and some factories in the south are already complaining about a shortage of workers.

In the frantic round of talks ahead of Copenhagen, meanwhile, China's negotiators can take comfort from the fact that the real pressure is being felt in other capitals. In truth, China has played its climate cards beautifully.

Beijing has been helped by events elsewhere. In its early days, the Obama administration hoped to forge a close partnership on climate change with China that would allow it to nudge Beijing into important new commitments. But with its climate-change bill still languishing in Congress, Washington has little leverage. Todd Stern, US special envoy for climate change, has admitted the two countries will not sign any substantial agreement when President Barack Obama visits Beijing later this month.

China has also been quite happy for India to strike a more belligerent tone in climate talks – a role often played by Jairam Ramesh, the Indian environment minister. Both governments feel strongly that the onus of dealing with global warming lies with the rich world. Last week they even signed an agreement to co-ordinate climate-change efforts, which will help them to take a united stance in Copenhagen. But it suits China for India to take a harder line in public.

Beijing has also done an excellent job at convincing the rest of the world it is serious about climate change. China is one of the biggest manufacturers of solar panels, and this year, announcements have been made almost every week about another big new wind farm – even if a large number of the existing ones are not yet connected to the national grid.

The government has set itself a target of improving energy efficiency by 20 per cent in the 2006-10 period and, with a little help from the downturn at the end of last year, the country is on track to get near to this goal. So, by the time President Hu Jintao told a United Nations climate- change conference in September that China would also adopt a “carbon intensity” target, environmental groups were only too happy to herald it as a big breakthrough.

Beijing's policies have been so successful that US advocates of green technology have given warning that China will become the dominant player. “China is spending about $9bn (€6.1bn, £5.5bn) a month on clean energy,” Steven Chu, the US energy secretary, told a Senate committee last week. “The US, meanwhile, has fallen behind.”

Yet although it is Washington and not Beijing that is dreading the Copenhagen summit, China will still be under intense scrutiny. Not only has it yet to give a date for when its emissions might peak, but Mr Hu's plan to reduce carbon intensity (in other words, the amount of carbon produced by each unit of output) is still an aspiration rather than a concrete number.