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@FT中文网【美元昨日延续涨势】最新美国就业数据远强于预期,令人质疑美元利率将长期保持低位的看法
2009年12月08日 07:19 AM

美元昨日延续涨势
US DOLLAR CONTINUES TO MARCH HIGHER

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The dollar extended its gains yesterday following a sharp rally on Friday after US employment data came in far stronger than expected.

因美国就业数据远强于预期,美元在上周五出现大幅回升。昨日,美元延续了这一涨势。

A much smaller-than-forecast drop in US non-farm payrolls in November, combined with substantial downward revisions to job losses in previous months, pushed investors to reassess the view that US interest rates would remain at ultra-low levels for the foreseeable future.

美国11月份非农业就业人数的降幅远小于预期,此前几个月的失业人数也被大幅向下修正。这促使投资者对如下观点——美国的利率将在可预见的未来保持在超低水平——做出重新评估。

This prompted a rally in US bond yields, which supported the dollar across the board. Analysts said the figures caused investors to rethink their positions, given that data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange released over the weekend revealed short positions in the dollar ahead of the data were at their highest levels since March 2008.

此举导致美国国债收益率大幅回升,对美元形成了全面支持。芝加哥商业交易所(CME)上周末发布的数据显示,在本次就业数据公布前,美元空头头寸达到2008年3月以来的最高水平。有鉴于此,分析师们表示,就业数据促使投资者反思了自己的头寸。

Derek Halpenny at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ said the employment data highlighted the fact that too much bad news had been priced into the dollar regarding the health of the US labour market.

三菱东京UFJ银行(Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ)的德里克•赫尔潘尼(Derek Halpenny)表示,就业数据突显了一个事实:美元汇率计入了太多有关美国劳动力市场健康的坏消息。

He said while there was little chance that the Federal Reserve would change its policy stance at its December meeting, more positive news from the labour market might force the central bank to abandon its commitment to keep US interest rates at low levels for “an extended period” at its January meeting. “The scale of recovery in the employment report suggests that the recovery under way in the labour market is real and that even the Federal Reserve itself has been too gloomy,” said Mr Halpenny.

他表示,虽然美联储(Fed)在12月会议上改变政策立场的可能性很小,但来自劳动力市场的更多积极消息,或许会迫使美联储在明年1月的会议上放弃把美国利率“长期”保持在低位的承诺。赫尔潘尼说:“本次就业报告所展现的复苏规模表明,劳动力市场正在出现的复苏是真实的,迄今甚至连美联储自身都对此过于悲观。”

The dollar index, which tracks its progress against a basket of six leading currencies, rose to a high of 76.183, its strongest level in a month.

追踪美元兑一篮子6种主要货币走势的美元指数,升至一个月来的高点76.183。

译者/汪洋

彼得•加海姆上一篇文章:

分析:人民币能否抗得住国际压力? 2009-11-18

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