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@FT中文网【Lex专栏:期盼中国“进口奇迹”】中国终于超越德国,坐上全球头号出口大国宝座。但真正的庆祝要等到中国成为最大进口国之时。考虑到中国消费者对西方产品趋之若鹜,这一天有望在3年内到来。
2010年01月07日 06:40 AM

China becomes world's biggest exporter

背景
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When the Italian economy first overtook Britain's, the landmark 1987 moment was dubbed “Il Sorpasso”. Newspapers reported celebrations in the streets of Rome. A far more momentous rite of passage has just occurred with little fuss: China has finally arrived at the top of the rankings of global exporters, displacing Germany. China exported $957bn of goods in the first 10 months of 2009, compared with $917bn for Germany, according to customs data compiled by Global Trade Information Services, a Geneva-based firm. Data for the last two months of the year are unlikely to cause China to cede that hard-won crown.

The celebrations in Beijing will be muted: for the planners hoping to increase the share of consumption within the mix of economic growth, a reminder of the country's export-dependence is not especially welcome. The real party will come when China becomes the world's biggest importer: that will be a more impressive measure of the country's new economic heft. At present, China ranks second, with imports of $710bn between January and September 2009. It last year overtook Germany, which imported goods worth $677bn in this period, the latest for which data is available, but still lags far behind the US, with imports of $1,122bn.

That sorpasso could take place within as little as three years given rising US savings rates and the prodigious taste for western goods of many Chinese consumers. The ramifications could extend far beyond the dry realm of trade talks, and into the ever-mutating one of language. People generally need to speak the language of their biggest customers. For many years, this meant English, first with received pronunciation, then with an American twang. Soon the bigshot will be Chinese. If this linguistic balance of power shifts eastwards, that will reflect not China's export miracle, but its coming import miracle.

Lex专栏上一篇文章:

Lex专栏:中石油回购之玄机 2010-01-06

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本文涉及话题:中国经济 进出口 贸易
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作者简介

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评,对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析。栏目始于1930年,其团队分布在纽约、伦敦、香港和东京四地。无人确知其名称的起源,有人认为源于拉丁语“微罪不举” 。(Lex专栏更多文章)