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@FT中文网【中国经济去年增长8.7% 总量逼近日本】2009年第四季度增速达10.7%,但CPI也大幅上升,表明通胀压力正在蓄积
2010年01月22日 07:36 AM

中国经济去年增长8.7% 总量逼近日本
CHINA CLOSES GAP WITH JAPAN AS ECONOMIC GROWTH BEATS FORECAST

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China comfortably beat its target of 8 per cent economic growth last year and came close to overtaking a stagnant Japan as the second-biggest economy in the world, even as signs emerged yesterday that inflationary pressures are building.

中国去年经济增长速度轻松超过8%的目标,几乎快要赶超停滞不前的日本,成为世界第二大经济体,但昨日有迹象表明,通胀压力正在蓄积。

The economy accelerated in the fourth quarter to expand by 10.7 per cent and grew by 8.7 per cent in 2009, in spite of the biggest global economic crisis in generations.

尽管遭遇几十年来最严重的全球经济危机,中国经济仍在第四季度加速增长,增幅达10.7%,2009年全年增长8.7%。

China's gross domestic product reached $4,900bn, just short of the $5,100bn Japan is expected to register after last year's contraction, according to Goldman Sachs.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)的数据显示,中国的国内生产总值(GDP)达4.9万亿美元,仅略低于日本在去年经济萎缩后预计将录得的5.1万亿美元。

However, consumer price inflation jumped sharply again last month, from 0.6 per cent in November year-on-year to 1.9 per cent, the latest indication that the economy could be at risk of overheating. Factory gate prices rose 1.7 per cent in December, reversing November's 2.1 per cent fall.

但中国消费者价格通胀上月大幅飙升,从11月的同比增长0.6%上升至1.9%,这是经济可能面临过热风险的最新信号。工业品出厂价格上月增长1.7%,扭转了11月份2.1%的降幅。

“My first worry is how to control price rises while promoting economic growth, ” said Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of Statistics.

国家统计局(National Bureau of Statistics)局长马建堂表示:“我的第一个担忧是,如何既维持、维护、推进经济持续回升的势头,又把物价的上升控制在一个温和可控的范围内。”

Regulators have ordered some banks to stop new loans until the end of the month for fear that frantic lending had been compromising monetary policy that most economists already considered too loose.

监管机构已命令某些银行在本月底前停止发放新贷款,当局担心,疯狂放贷拖累了多数经济学家已经认为过于宽松的货币政策。

Some economists expect interest rates to start rising in China from the second quarter, although officials are concerned about a collapse in domestic house prices if they tighten too quickly and remain wary of a double-dip in the global economy. Modest appreciation of the renminbi is also widely forecast.

一些经济学家预计,中国的利率将从第二季度开始上升,但官员们担心,过快收紧货币政策将导致国内房价大跌,而且全球经济仍有可能出现“双谷”衰退。人民币将适度升值也是外界普遍认同的一个预测。

“Strong growth accompanied by rising inflation is an unpleasant outcome and will only harden fears of policy tightening,” said Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland. “Prices of goods that matter to consumers such as food, housing and utilities are rising faster than income growth and that will worry Beijing.”

“强劲增长的同时通胀上升,这不是令人满意的结果,只会加剧人们对政策收紧的担忧,”苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)经济学家贝哲民(Ben Simpfendorfer)表示。“食品、房屋、煤气水电等与消费者息息相关的产品,价格涨得比收入更快,这将让政府担忧。”

译者/章晴

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