@FT中文网【亚洲民主并未衰退】FT亚洲版主编皮林:尽管泰国和菲律宾的民主制度最近遭遇了麻烦,但我们不能就此得出结论认为,民主已丧失吸引力、表现最好的经济体是威权国家。
2010年05月06日 06:27 AM

亚洲民主并未衰退
DEMOCRACY'S DEMISE IN ASIA IS EXAGGERATED

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On the face of it, these are lean times for champions of Asian democracy. Two of the most attractive democratic pin-ups of yore, Thailand and the Philippines, are looking decidedly haggard. Thais no longer trust parliament to sort out their differences and have taken their grievances to the streets. In the Philippines, which goes to the polls next month, political violence scaled new heights with the massacre last November of 57 people. Their offence had been to try to register an opposition candidate. Afghanistan went through the pain of elections last year, though a lot of people wonder why it bothered. And Sri Lanka's brief flirtation with post-civil war democratic inclusion lasted roughly five minutes: Sarath Fonseka has discovered to his cost that the price of running against the incumbent president is jail.

表面上看,倡导亚洲民主的人正处在艰难时期。泰国和菲律宾这两个昔日最令人瞩目的民主样板,看上去明显疲惫不堪。泰国人不再指望议会来解决他们之间的分歧,而是走上街头发泄自己的不满。在下月将举行选举的菲律宾,政治暴力已上升到一个新的高度:在去年11月的一起屠杀中,有57人遇害——他们的“过错”只是试图为一位反对党候选人登记参选。阿富汗去年也经历了选举之痛,尽管很多人不明白它何苦这么费事。斯里兰卡在内战结束之后曾浅尝民主,但这一努力只持续了大约五分钟:萨拉特•丰塞卡(Sarath Fonseka)吃了一番苦头后才发现,在竞选中与现任总统作对的代价是进监狱。

Conversely, countries that many expected would move towards greater democracy have not obliged. Former US president Bill Clinton proselytised the idea that, in a knowledge economy, only those states that were politically open would prosper. China has proved him spectacularly wrong. Indeed, Beijing is busily creating the biggest middle class in the history of the world, yet the Communist party's hold on power looks as firm as ever.

另一方面,许多人曾预期会变得更加民主的那些国家却未如人们所愿。美国前总统比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)试图让人们相信,在知识经济时代,只有那些政治开放的国家才会繁荣。中国已证明他大错特错。的确,中国政府正忙着打造人类有史以来最庞大的中产阶级,可中国共产党对权力的掌控似乎空前牢固。

To rub it in, economies in countries that do not bother with elections have generally performed better than those that regularly go through the rigmarole of transferring power. Even the late Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino, gunned down in 1983 for his principled opposition to the Marcos dictatorship, said that freedom of speech meant little to those not free from hunger. China's growth has averaged 10 per cent a year in the past 30 years. The Philippines has not even managed 4 per cent.

更令人费解的是,那些不为选举劳神的国家,其经济表现要普遍优于那些定期经历繁琐的权力移交程序的国家。甚至连已故的贝尼尼奥•阿基诺(Benigno Aquino,昵称“尼诺”(Ninoy),因坚持原则地反对马科斯(Marcos)的独裁统治而在1983年遭枪杀)也曾说过,对那些仍在挨饿的人来说,言论自由没什么意义。在过去30年里,中国经济的年均增速为10%,而菲律宾连4%都不到。

A once-rock-solid faith in the so-called Washington Consensus, which predicted the lock-step progress of economic and political liberalism, has been shaken. If anything, the accepted view these days has reversed. Stefan Halper's Beijing Consensus is merely the latest book to highlight the attractions of “market authoritarianism” – especially to dictators in the developing world (funnily enough).

人们对所谓“华盛顿共识”(Washington Consensus,它预言经济自由化和政治自由化将同步展开)的信念曾坚如磐石,但现在已经动摇。如果说有什么变化,那就是人们如今普遍认同相反的观点。斯特凡•哈尔珀(Stefan Halper)的《北京共识》(The Beijing Consensus),只不过是最新一部突显“市场威权主义”诱人之处(尤其是对发展中世界的独裁者们而言,这点很有意思)的著作。

But if Asian countries are being cited to bolster the argument that democracy has lost its appeal and that the best-performing economies are autocratic, that view is worth challenging. Before we scan the present landscape, it is worth slaying a couple of shibboleths.

但是,如果把亚洲国家当作例证,来支持“民主已丧失吸引力、表现最好的经济体是威权国家”的论点,那么这种看法是值得挑战的。在我们审视当前格局之前,有必要先来破除两个落伍的观点。

First, to talk about “Asian” political systems at all is to concede an important point. That is the view – largely bunkum – that contrasts supposedly “Asian values” of family, hard work and respect for authority with “western” ones. Asia, home to two-thirds of the world's people, is as much a European fantasy as a real place. (Nor, for that matter, is “the west” the one-dimensional land of individualism and irresponsible capitalism it is often made out to be.) The fact that Asia is so varied renders it hard to talk sensibly in one breath about political systems in, say, Vietnam and Malaysia, let alone Japan and Pakistan. There are more people living under democracy in Asia than in any other continent.

首先,只要你谈及“亚洲”政治体制,就等于你接受一个重要观点,即推崇家庭、努力工作和尊重权威的所谓“亚洲价值观”与“西方价值观”差异鲜明——该观点基本上是无稽之谈。人口占世界三分之二的亚洲,既是一块真实的地方,也是欧洲人的一个幻想。(就这点而言,“西方”也并非一块一元化的、由个人主义和毫无责任感的资本主义主导的土地——尽管人们常常误以为如此。)事实上,亚洲相当多元化,把(比方说)越南和马来西亚的政治体制放在一起谈论的做法很难说是明智的,更不必说把日本和巴基斯坦放在一起了。在亚洲,生活在民主制下的人比其它任何一块大陆都多。

Second, though some authoritarian states, notably China, have managed their economies spectacularly well, others – Burma or North Korea – have made a jackbooted hash of it.

其次,尽管有些威权国家(尤其是中国)把本国经济管理得极为出色,但也有些威权国家(缅甸或北朝鲜)穷兵黩武、把本国经济搞得一团糟。

What of the present? It is far from clear that the democratic tide is in retreat. There are three obvious examples of countries that have become more democratic, and no less successful for it. Taiwan, a formerly authoritarian state run by Chiang Kai-shek's nationalists, has become a near-model democracy. Power has been transferred from Kuomintang nationalists to the opposition and back again. A former president has been impeached without obvious damage to the island's democratic foundations. Taiwan's open political system is sweeter still for disproving the myth that Chinese culture is incompatible with democracy.

当前的局势又是如何呢?人们远不能判定民主浪潮正在消退。有三个明显的例子可以证明,国家在变得更加民主的同时,并不会影响其成功。台湾曾是一个由蒋介石的国民党统治的威权政体,如今则变成了一个近乎典范的民主政体。权力先从国民党移交到反对党手中,而后又移交回来。虽然一位前总统遭到控告,但台湾的民主基础并未受到明显损害。台湾的开放政治体制,愈发有力地反驳中华文化与民主不相容的荒唐神话。

South Korea, formerly a military dictatorship, has developed a similarly robust democracy. Full of scandal and political revenge to be sure, but no less dynamic or responsive to the people's will for that. The biggest surprise may be Indonesia which, following the collapse of the Suharto dictatorship in 1998, was widely predicted to be destined for chaos and Muslim extremism. Neither has happened. Under Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a retired army officer elected president in 2004, Indonesia has consolidated a stable democracy that has buttressed a promising economic performance.

韩国曾是一个军事独裁国家,但如今已发展起同样健全的民主政体。诚然,韩国政坛充斥丑闻和政治报复,但这些现象并未导致该体制缺乏活力或无视民意。最令人意外的可能是印尼。在1998年苏哈托(Suharto)独裁统治垮台后,人们普遍预期:印尼肯定会陷入动荡,并走向穆斯林极端主义。但这两种预期均未成为现实。退役军官苏西洛•班邦•尤多约诺(Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono)在2004年当选为印尼总统。在他的治理下,印尼巩固了民主制,为该国前景看好的经济表现提供了支撑。

Of the bigger economies, India has proved that democracy and fast economic growth are compatible, if not yet that Delhi can match Beijing's double-digit wizardry. Even Japan, a stable democracy for 60 years, has gone the extra mile by actually voting the opposition into power.

在规模更大的经济体中,印度已经证明,民主政体和经济快速增长可以相容——尽管与中国政府相比,印度政府还不具备让经济呈两位数增长的魔力。就连60年来一直是稳定民主国家的日本,也又向前迈进了一步——选民终于把反对党选上了台。

Finally, look at China itself. It is true that, viewed from afar, China's political system has hardly budged. But no one paying attention could doubt that with the rise of the middle class has come a revolution in access to knowledge and the stirrings of a civil society. With a little technical savvy or a dollar a week for a virtual private network (VPN), anyone in China can breach the Great Firewall and see the same information as freedom-surfers in London or New York. That is not the same thing as democracy. But perhaps Mr Clinton was not so wide of the mark after all.

最后,我们来看看中国自己。诚然,从远处看,中国的政治体制几乎丝毫没有动摇。但是,任何一个密切关注中国的人都不怀疑,随着中产阶级的崛起,中国已出现一场知识获取方面的革命,并露出公民社会的萌芽。只需略懂技术或使用一个每周收费1美元的虚拟专用网络(VPN),任何一位在中国境内的人都可以翻越长城防火墙,浏览到伦敦或纽约的自由网民所能浏览的信息。这与民主还不是一回事。但或许,克林顿到头来并非错得那么离谱。

译者/何黎

戴维•皮林上一篇文章:

与FT共进午餐:中国艺术家艾未未 2010-05-05

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本文涉及话题:亚洲 民主

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戴维•皮林(David Pilling)是英国《金融时报》亚洲版主编。他的专栏涉及到商业、投资、政治和经济方面的话题。皮林1990年加入FT。他曾经在伦敦、智利、阿根廷工作过。在成为亚洲版主编之前,他担任FT东京分社的社长。