Karl Marx would not have been surprised by China's astonishing two decades of growth. His analysis of capitalism, describing how an “industrial reserve army” holds down wages and boosts profits and capital accumulation, would have noted that nowhere is the pool of unemployed but employable workers greater than in this nominally communist yet voraciously capitalist state. | 卡尔·马克思(Karl Marx)不会对中国令人惊叹的20年经济增长感到意外。他在对资本主义的分析中,论述了一支“产业后备军”是怎样压低工资、提振利润和资本积累的;他会指出,在这个名义上信奉共产主义、其实更像逐利的资本主义的国家,失业但具备受雇条件的人口比其它任何地方都多。 |
The protests and wage demands at Foxconn's and Honda's China plants, however, show how rapidly this analysis is becoming outdated. For a while, China's reserves of cheap workers from the rural hinterlands seemed inexhaustible. But sooner than most expected, two limits have come into view. One from workers' heightened expectations in the manufacturing cities of China's coastal provinces. The other from the mounting stress rural-to-urban migration puts on China's physical and social environment – and on migrants themselves, who enjoy little protection under their country's anachronistically place-bound legal system. | 不过,在富士康(Foxconn)和本田(Honda)在华工厂出现的抗议和加薪要求表明,这种分析正很快变得过时。有一段时期,来自中国内陆农村地区的廉价劳动力似乎取之不尽。但是比多数人预期的更快的是,两方面的局限已经浮现。一是中国沿海地区制造业重镇工人们的期望上升了。二是从农村到城市的大规模迁徙,对中国的物质和社会环境、乃至农民工本身都产生了越来越大的压力;按照中国以地域为限的陈旧法律体系,这些农民工几乎享受不到任何保护。 |
So the flow of migrants from inland China can no longer be counted on infinitely to expand manufacturing capacity on the coast. Business has taken the consequences. As the FT reported yesterday, Foxconn is preparing to move production of some Apple gadgets (it makes iPods, iPads and iPhones) to a future factory in inland Henan, China's most populous province. | 因此,人们再也不能无止境地指望从中国内陆输出的农民工,来扩大沿海地区的制造产能。企业已承担了后果。正如英国《金融时报》昨日报道的,富士康正准备把部分苹果(Apple)装置的生产,转移至内陆河南省(中国人口最多的省份)的一家未来工厂。富士康为苹果生产iPod媒体播放器、iPad平板电脑和iPhone手机。 |
The company may have little choice. The wage doubling it has conceded to some of its workers will have little impact on its sale prices – labour accounts for only 3 per cent of total costs – but can do a lot of harm to the profit margin. With wages more than a third lower in some provinces compared to Shenzhen, it is not surprising that more manufacturers seek to build factories off the beaten track. The more of them do so, the easier it will be to meet customers' need to ramp up production in the face of increased demand. That need made some of the companies that put their logo on the products resist relocations in the past. | 该公司也许没有什么选择。它给予部分工人的薪资翻倍,几乎不会影响产品售价(劳动力仅占总成本的3%),但可能会严重损害利润率。鉴于中国一些省份的工资水平比深圳低三分之一以上,难怪有更多制造商寻求在冷僻的地点建厂。这样的制造商越多,就越容易在需求增加的情况下,满足客户提高产量的需要。这种需要曾让某些在产品上贴牌的公司抵制迁厂。 |
As this changes, a new chapter is being written in the awe-inspiring story of economic development in Asia. Starting with Japan, country after country grew rich by following the same playbook: step on to the lowest, dreariest and most labour-intensive rung of industrialisation and gradually move up the value chain as you build up skills and capital, letting poorer countries take on the tasks you shed. This is how the “Asian tigers” copied Japan, and how successive generations – including China itself – followed. The current relocations are no less momentous for happening within a single country. | 随着这种格局发生变化,亚洲令人敬畏的经济发展故事正掀开新的篇章。从日本开始,一个又一个国家走上了同样的致富道路:首先踏上工业化阶梯的最低一级,从事最枯燥、劳动力密集程度最高的生产活动,然后提高技能,增加资本,逐渐向价值链上方攀登,让更贫穷的国家承担你不屑再染指的生产活动。“亚洲小虎”就是这样仿效日本的,以后几代——包括中国——也是这样追随的。目前的生产转移,并不会因为发生在一个国家内部而削弱其重大意义。 |
The industrialisation of China's coast was history's single greatest poverty-reducing phenomenon. We may be set for a second act. | 中国沿海地区的工业化,是人类历史上规模最大的脱贫现象。现在,我们也许就要看到第二幕。 |
译者/和风 |


