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退出之争

To grow, Britain must solve its jobs deficit
英国必须解决就业赤字

英国前外交大臣米利班德:与其拘泥于财政赤字,英国政府应聚焦于就业赤字:即正在找工作的250万人。纵观全球,各国政府都在帮助做大经济蛋糕。

By committing to the largest fiscal retrenchment in living memory the coalition has gone for broke. The prime minister says it will “change our way of life”. That's the problem. Ken Clarke used to say that good economics is good politics. The government has turned this on its head. Framing the debate as a choice between the public and private sectors is certainly good politics, but it is bad economics. The Budget will force 600,000 public sector workers into unemployment. With recent surveys suggesting rapidly worsening business confidence and no evidence of an emerging hiring spree, their prospects of finding work in the private sector are bleak.

通过承诺实施当代人记忆中最大规模的财政紧缩,英国联合政府已经孤注一掷。首相表示,它将“改变我们的生活方式”。这就是问题所在。保守党资深议员肯•克拉克(Ken Clarke)过去常说,好的经济政策就是好的政治。本届英国政府把它颠倒了过来。将这场辩论框定为公共和私人部门之间的选择,当然是好的政治,但对经济没有益处。财政预算案将迫使60万名公共部门雇员失业。最近的调查表明企业信心快速恶化,同时没有证据表明出现新的招聘热潮,因此这些人在私人部门找到工作的前景渺茫。

The independence of the Office of Budget Responsibility has rightly been called into question; a matter that can only be addressed by its reporting directly to parliament. But even it has joined the International Monetary Fund and private sector economists in downgrading the UK's 2011 growth forecasts, to just above 2 per cent, below the rate required to lower unemployment.

英国预算责任办公室(OBR)的独立性受到质疑,这是合理的;只有让该机构直接向议会报告,才能解决这个问题。但即便是英国预算责任办公室,也与国际货币基金组织(IMF)和私人部门经济学家一样,将英国2011年增长预期调降至略高于2%——低于降低失业率所需的增长率。

I am an economic realist. The public finances need addressing. Labour's plans would halve the budget deficit and remove the bulk of the structural deficit in four years. It is the sensible, credible middle-ground between extreme cuts and unchecked spending. But the government's proposals, designed without an escape hatch in the event of slowing growth, reflect ideology, not realism.

我在经济方面是一个现实主义者。公共财政问题需要解决。工党原计划在4年时间里,将预算赤字削减一半,并消除大部分的结构性赤字。这是在极端削减和不加控制的支出之间的明智而可信的中间路线。但本届政府的提议没有设计好增长放缓情况下的“逃生通道”,说明这些提议只反映了意识形态,而非现实主义。

The government also has no plan for jobs: cancelling the loan to Sheffield Forgemasters, stalling on the Green Investment Bank and still lacking a trade minister (in spite of George Osborne's hopes for an export-led recovery).

本届政府也没有就业计划:它取消向谢菲尔德铸锻集团 (Sheffield Forgemasters)的贷款,拖延设立绿色投资银行(Green Investment Bank),而且还没有任命一位贸易部长——尽管财相乔治•奥斯本(George Osborne)希望实现出口拉动型复苏。

Instead, it should focus on the jobs deficit: the 2.5m people looking for work. Sweden made halving unemployment its priority during its 1990s fiscal consolidation. But Britain is repeating Japan's response to its crisis: pulling stimulus too early, raising value added tax and relying too heavily on monetary policy – leading to unemployment and stagnation.

与其拘泥于财政赤字,政府应聚焦于就业赤字:即正在找工作的250万人。瑞典在上世纪90年代财政整固期间,曾将失业率减半列为优先事项。但英国在重复日本回应危机的老路:过早退出刺激政策,提高增值税税率并过度依赖货币政策——导致失业和滞涨。

Our economy must be greener, more innovative and more balanced. In the face of a widening current account deficit we must play to our strengths in manufacturing, services, universities and creative industries – as well as a properly regulated financial sector. This needs the public and private sectors to work in tandem, starting with five steps to end our jobs deficit.

我们的经济必须更绿色、更具创新而且更加平衡。面对不断扩大的经常账户赤字,我们必须发挥自己在制造业、服务业、大学、创意行业,以及恰当监管的金融业上的优势。这需要公共和私人部门通力协作,从以下5个步骤着手,解决就业赤字问题。

First: create a British Investment Bank to facilitate investment into infrastructure, support good small businesses struggling to access funding and provide capital for export industries. The bank would be owned by the public, but would raise money on capital markets and be controlled by a commercially-orientated board. For decades similar banks in Germany and the Nordic region have helped their private sectors flourish. Financial reform gives us an opportunity to join the party.

第一步:创建一家英国投资银行(BIB),安排对基础设施的投资,为难以获得融资的优秀小企业提供支持,并为出口行业提供资本。该银行将是一家公有机构,但将在资本市场融资,并由一个商业头脑的董事会控管。几十年来,德国和北欧地区的类似银行已帮助其私人部门繁荣发展。金融改革给了我们加入这一阵营的机会。

Second: set and achieve a goal of having 60 per cent of 18-30-year-olds in university, higher level vocational learning or an apprenticeship by 2015. Growth depends on improving our skills base, not condemning our population to long-term unemployment by abolishing the Future Jobs Fund.

第二:制定并实现如下目标:到2015年,让60%的18至30岁年轻人进入大学、高级职业教育或学徒岗位。增长取决于不断提高我们的技能基础水平,而不是废除未来就业基金(Future Jobs Fund),使得大批英国人长期处于失业状态。

Third: deploy the public sector to invigorate local economies by maximising the multiplier effect of public services. Cutting Building Schools for the Future is not just bad for education, it will hit construction jobs.

第三:尽可能扩大公共服务的倍乘效应,利用公共部门提振地方经济。削减“为未来建造学校”(Building Schools for the Future)计划不仅对教育不利,还将影响建筑业的就业。

Fourth: focus on increasing productivity and the quality of work in low pay, low value sectors of the economy. This requires a new workplace settlement, based on hard work, innovation and fair pay. Reformed corporate governance and models of ownership can give employees a greater stake in the success of their companies.

第四,把重点放在提高经济中低报酬、低价值行业的生产率和工作质量上。这需要一种基于勤奋、创新和公平报酬的新的职业安排。经过改革的企业治理和所有权模式,可以让雇员在更大程度上与所在企业的成功利益相关。

Fifth: pursue an industrial strategy for the 21st century, marshalling the state's tools of procurement, regulation, planning and taxation to attract the private sector where it is needed most. We can learn from Portugal's initiative on infrastructure for electric car-charging, a viable commercial case for investment in manufacturing. Germany's renewable energy policy combined feed-in tariffs with regional development areas and research, creating more than 300,000 jobs. Israel's approach to commercialising university research has taken it to the top of the innovation charts. Globally, governments are helping to expand the economic pie. Ours can too.

第五:实施一套21世纪的工业化战略,调动政府采购、监管、规划和税收政策,吸引私人部门到最需要的地区。我们可以从葡萄牙为电动车充电建立基础设施的举措吸取经验——这是一个可行的制造业投资的商业案例。德国的可再生能源政策,将电力收购补助费率与区域性开发和研究结合起来,创造了逾30万个就业岗位。以色列商业化大学研究的做法,使该国高居创新榜首位。纵观全球,各国政府正在帮助做大经济蛋糕。我们的政府也一样可以做到。

At the last election Labour could not find a single business to support its economic policy. I am determined to put this right – and lead Labour into again becoming the party of spreading wealth creation, not just spreading wealth. It is not good politics to have bad economics.

上次大选中,工党找不到一家支持其经济政策的企业。我决心纠正这一错误——带领工党再次成为传播财富创造(而不只是分配财富)的政党。实行糟糕的经济政策不是好的政治。

The author is MP for South Shields, and a candidate for the leadership of the Labour party

本文作者是南希尔兹议员,工党领袖竞选人之一

译者/君悦

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