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@FT中文网【FT社评:中印应相互借鉴】印度国内主导型增长与中国出口导向型增长形成反差,带来一些有益启迪。在基础设施和制造业就业上,印度应学习中国,中国则应学习如何提振内需。
2010年09月02日 06:41 AM

Growth models

背景
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India grows faster than many countries, but often finds itself in the shadow of China’s even greater heft. Look under the hood, however, and India’s growth machine sports some features China could use. Its 8.8 per cent growth year-on-year in the second quarter came even as foreign direct investment fell and the current account deficit widened. Indians seem altogether more self-sufficient than the Chinese in fuelling their expansion.

Admittedly a cloud of uncertainty hangs over the growth figure: the expenditure measure of gross domestic output grew much less than the supply-side measure. But few think India’s economy is screeching to a halt, so the strong rise in output indicated by the supply side – the biggest gains were seen in transport and communication and in manufacturing – must be meeting domestic demand that is growing equally fast, given the economy’s external position.

For all their similarities, emerging countries are not a homogenous species. India is too often lumped in with other burgeoning economies. The comparison with China is especially tempting, given India’s sizeable population, recent liberalisation and largely agrarian economy. The politician Jairam Ramesh coined the word “Chindia” to capture the intertwined destinies of the two countries.

But buzzwords must not obscure key differences. India’s domestic growth contrasts with China’s export-orientation, centred on an undervalued renminbi. India boasts booming services and information technology sectors whereas China excels in manufacturing. One country is a democracy with a vigorous press, the other an authoritarian regime with limited freedom of speech. India proves that so-called “Asian values” that put collective order and social harmony above individual liberty are no necessary condition for economic success.

These differences furnish valuable lessons for developing countries. India can learn from China’s success in rolling out infrastructure, creating manufacturing jobs and cultivating a highly profitable corporate sector. But China can also learn a thing or two from India. China’s economy, geared towards producing goods for foreign consumers, creates massive international imbalances. It should do more to boost domestic – and especially household – demand.

If learning from the growth models of fellow emerging economies helps the Chinese rebalance their economy and the Indians achieve more inclusive growth, it would be well worth the effort.

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