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@FT中文网【Lex专栏:是时候让亚洲独立行事了】没有全球领袖发出的信号,亚洲许多央行似乎都不愿意调整政策利率。只有马来西亚央行采取了“先发制人”的行动。仅凭这一点,我们就应该为马来西亚央行行长鼓掌。
2010年09月03日 14:23 PM

Asian central banks

背景
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Take a bow, Zeti Akhtar Aziz. The governor of the central bank of Malaysia has faced accusations of undue hawkishness for raising base interest rates three times since the beginning of the year. Yet she has acted almost without heed to the actions – or rather, inactions – of central bankers in the US, eurozone and Japan. For that alone, she should be applauded.

Many of her Asian peers have seemed reluctant to adjust policy settings in the absence of cues from the global leaders. Some are still on hold (China, the Philippines and Indonesia) and although others have lifted policy rates at least once (India, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Malaysia) only Bank Negara Malaysia has taken action “pre-emptively”, according to a Citigroup study. Each of its three 25 basis-point increases – in March, May and July – were slightly ahead of a rate-setting model based on the so-called Taylor rule. The policy rates at all the other Asian central banks are up to 50bp lower than the model suggests is appropriate.

Take Bank Indonesia. If it lifts rates at the scheduled meeting today, the increase would not come a moment too soon. Thanks to La Niña, the usual June-September dry season may not happen at all; if so, already high prices for food – just over a third of the basket used for measuring inflation – would be pushed even higher.

The Bank of Korea, too, is hovering on the exit threshold, with a base rate 1.75 percentage points adrift of the neutral rate, by the reckoning of the International Monetary Fund. That less-developed markets are leading the global tightening cycle will naturally cause some circumspection. But this is where the growth is. High time they stood alone.

Lex专栏上一篇文章:

Lex专栏:押注中国对冲基金 2010-09-02

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作者简介

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评,对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析。栏目始于1930年,其团队分布在纽约、伦敦、香港和东京四地。无人确知其名称的起源,有人认为源于拉丁语“微罪不举” 。(Lex专栏更多文章)