@FT中文网【社评:美国需要新的刺激举措】在计划于今日发表的演讲中,预计奥巴马将呼吁实施新的投资抵税政策,包括无限期延长研发方面的减税待遇。但“刺激”这个词似乎成了禁忌。
2010年09月08日 14:48 PM

社评:美国需要新的刺激举措
Obama should do more to boost jobs

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President Obama’s speech to a union crowd on Labour Day was an election-campaign event, more about politics than economics. He stirred his audience with a paean to organised labour, and fumed about the negativism of his Republican opponents: “They talk about me like a dog,” he said. He did call for $50bn of new spending on infrastructure, but spread over many years and “fully paid for” (how was not explained). This was not a stimulus proposal, and its chance of Congressional approval is anyway zero.

9月6日劳动节那天,美国总统奥巴马(Obama)对一群工会组织所做的演讲就像是一场竞选活动,谈论的政治问题多于经济。他用一支写给劳工组织的赞歌调动起听众的情绪,并怒斥共和党对手们的消极否定态度,“他们把我说得像条狗,”他说。他的确提议增加500亿美元的基础设施支出,但此笔开支将分多年拨付,且“资金来源能得到了全面保证”(但他没有解释如何做到这一点)。这不是一份有关刺激措施的提案,而且获得国会通过的几率为零。

In a speech planned for today the president is expected to call for new investment tax credits, including the permanent extension of tax reliefs for research and development. Again, it seems, there will be no new stimulus: the cost will be met by closing so-called loopholes in corporate taxes. The very word “stimulus” appears to be forbidden.

在计划于今日发表的一篇演讲中,预计奥巴马将呼吁实施新的投资抵税政策,包括无限期延长研发方面的减税待遇。不过,看上去他还是不会用新刺激措施这一说法:所需资金将来自填补所谓的企业税漏洞产生的收入。“刺激”这个词似乎成了禁忌。

On substance, the White House has surrendered. It is concentrating on energising its supporters ahead of the midterm elections and putting Republicans on the spot – daring them to oppose business tax cuts which (on its own analysis) are not tax cuts in the aggregate at all.

实际上,白宫已经妥协了。目前奥巴马政府的注意力都放在如何在中期选举之前给支持者打气、以及令共和党难堪上面——看看共和党有没有胆量反对企业减税计划,而这个计划(根据民主党自己的分析)总体而言根本就减不了多少税。

This is bad news for the US economy. With the recovery stalling, further stimulus is needed, and with long-term interest rates and inflation expectations at rock bottom, the US can afford it.

对美国经济而言,这不是什么好消息。随着复苏势头停滞,美国需要进一步的刺激措施。在当前长期利率和通胀率预期都处于低谷的情况下,美国有能力推出新的刺激方案。

Recognising the constraints imposed by an irresponsible and unappeasable opposition, which scents a big win in November, the White House should adopt a different approach. It should propose a temporary cut in payroll taxes, and an extension until 2013 of the Bush tax cuts, due to expire at the end of this year. A payroll tax holiday, especially if linked to net job creation, is a powerful employment-boosting measure. Depending on the details, it would be costly: upwards of $200bn. But the economy needs it and the US fiscal position, unlike that of many other countries, can stand it.

预期将在11月大获全胜的反对党提出了极不负责任、也难以满的种种限制条件。在认识到这一点之后,白宫应该采取一种截然不同的立场。奥巴马政府应该提议暂停征收薪资税,并将布什政府的减税政策(将于今年底到期)延长至2013年。暂停征收薪资税,如果再加上就业岗位出现净增长,就能成为推动就业的强有力举措。此项举措可能成本高昂(这取决于它的具体内容):最高可达2000亿美元。但美国经济需要这样的举措,而且和其它许多国家不同,美国的财政状况也能够承受得起。

The ideal policy from a cost-effectiveness point of view, would be to let the Bush tax cuts for high-income households expire on schedule while retaining those for the great majority of households. Politically, however, this includes a tax increase and gives ammunition to Republicans. Extending all the tax cuts and combining this with a payroll tax holiday would be a difficult proposal for them to oppose. Best of all, whether you used the dreaded word or not, it would be the meaningful further stimulus that the economy badly needs.

从节约成本的角度来看,最理想的政策是,不再延续即将到期的布什政府的高收入家庭减税计划,同时继续对大多数家庭实施减税政策。但从政治上看,这么做意味着要增加税收,会给共和党提供口实。对所有减税政策延期、并暂停征收薪资税的提议会让他们很难反对。最重要的是,不管用不用那个禁忌之词,这都将成为美国经济迫切需要、且意义重大的进一步刺激措施。

译者/管婧

社评上一篇文章:

澳大利亚新政府面对“地雷阵” 2010-09-09

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本文涉及话题:美国政治 奥巴马 刺激

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