@FT中文网【中国版《广场协议》有多远?】25年前,五国在纽约广场饭店签署《广场协议》,通过让美元贬值使全球经济再平衡。如今,虽然有人认为20国集团可以成为达成类似协议的平台,但这条道路要比1985年时艰难得多。
2010年09月17日 15:15 PM

中国版《广场协议》有多远?
Steep path towards grand accord

背景
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Twenty-five years ago next week, a small group of men gathered in the Plaza Hotel in New York to remake the world economy. The accord they struck, by which governments in the world’s five leading powers combined to weaken the dollar and rebalance the world economy, stands as perhaps the high-water mark of international economic co-operation over the past 40 years.

25年前的下周,一小群人聚集在纽约广场饭店(Plaza Hotel),打算重塑全球经济。他们签署了一项协议,根据协议,世界五大国家的政府将协同推动美元贬值,使全球经济实现再平衡。这项协议堪称过去40年里最高水准的国际经济合作。

Today, as deep fissures have opened between the world’s leading economies over exchange rates, global imbalances and deficit reduction, a reawakening of the Plaza Accord spirit could be invaluable.

今日,随着世界主要经济体在汇率、全球失衡和削减赤字等问题上出现了深层裂痕,《广场协议》(Plaza Accord)精神如能重新觉醒,将会弥足珍贵。

But though some ambitious souls think that the G20 could be a forum in which such a grand bargain can be struck, the path is more difficult than in 1985.

然而,虽然有些雄心勃勃的人士认为20国集团(G20)可以成为达成类似宏伟协议的平台,但这条道路要比1985年的时候难走得多。

Fred Bergsten, head of Washington’s Peterson Institute and an optimist about the possibilities for global economic governance, notes that some of the potential trade-offs then also exist now. By boosting the US economy through a weaker dollar, he says, Plaza and a subsequent 1987 deal to stabilise the dollar, the Louvre Accord, allowed the White House more freedom to reduce the deficit.

彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute)所长弗雷德•伯格斯滕(Fred Bergsten)对全球经济治理持以乐观态度。他指出,当年达成广场协议后带来的一些成效,现在依然适用。他表示,广场协议以及1987年旨在稳定美元的《卢浮宫协议》(Louvre Accord),通过使美元走弱提振了美国经济,从而使白宫有了更大的削减赤字的余地。

“I asked [then Treasury secretary] Jim Baker how much contribution Plaza had made to the deficit reduction, and he said maybe 10-20 per cent,” says Mr Bergsten. “That’s not huge, but it’s not bad.”

“我曾问吉姆•贝克(Jim Baker,时任美国财长),广场协议对减赤的贡献有多大?他说大概在10%至20%吧。”伯格斯滕表示,“不是特别大,但已经不错了。”

A similar commitment from China to let the renminbi appreciate might calm the debate on fiscal consolidation in the US, he adds.

他表示,假如中国作出类似承诺,让人民币升值,也许可以平息美国在巩固财政方面的争论。

But others point out the differences. David Rothkopf, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, says: “Japan in 1985 was part of a small club of advanced economies and was prepared to play by the rules of that club. But China regards itself as sui generis – such a large and diverse economy that it can’t play by the same rules as anyone else.”

但也有人指出了其间的差异。卡内基基金会(Carnegie Endowment)研究员大卫•罗斯科夫(David Rothkopf)表示:“1985年的日本已是发达经济体俱乐部的成员,愿意按照这个小俱乐部的规则行事。而当今的中国认为自己自成一类——这样一个庞大而多样化的经济体,没法按照别人的规则行事。”

Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Chinese ministry of commerce, said earlier this year that rapid appreciation would have “an even bigger impact on China than on Japan because China was at a much earlier stage of development”. While Japan was an advanced country with sophisticated companies, he says, China’s “labour-intensive industries cannot stand the pressure from a substantial appreciation because of their very slim profit margins”.

中国商务部研究员梅新育今年早些时候表示,货币急剧升值“对中国的影响会比日本更大,因为中国处于更为初级的发展阶段”。他说,当年日本已步入发达国家行列,拥有许多先进成熟的企业,而中国的“劳动密集型产业利润率微薄,无法承受货币大幅升值的压力”。

In any case, Chinese officials often argue that the Plaza Accord was disastrous for Japan. It encouraged the Bank of Japan to cut interest rates to offset the strengthening yen, and many in both Japan and China say that shift encouraged Japan’s property and financial bubble at the end of the 1980s.

中国官员经常声称,广场协议给日本造成了灾难性后果。广场协议促使日本央行(BoJ)通过降低利率来抵消日元升值的影响。日本和中国都有不少人士认为,这种做法助长了日本上世纪80年代末的房地产和金融泡沫。

Mr Bergsten says that “smarter Chinese economists” privately accept these arguments are bogus, and that Japan’s poor banking regulation was more to blame for the bubble.

伯格斯滕表示,“中国一些更聪明的经济学家”私下里承认这些观点并不准确——那场泡沫更多地是由日本金融监管不力所致。

Even to achieve the Plaza Accord took a committed diplomatic effort by the US to corral European members of the G5 – France, Germany and the UK – and strong-arm Japan into co-operating. Such co-ordination is now more difficult.

当年为了促成广场协议,美国全力进行外交斡旋,才说服G5中的欧洲国家(法国、德国和英国)——以及强硬的日本采取合作态度。如今要促成这样的合作会更加困难。

True, there are complaints from other members of the G20 about China’s exchange rate manipulation. But the administration of Barack Obama, US president, has not managed to unite them to press Beijing. Japan’s decision this week to weaken the yen was not a vote of confidence in the multilateral approach.

的确,G20其它成员国对于中国操纵汇率也颇有怨言,但美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)的政府没能联合他们一起向中国施压。本周日本压低日元汇率的决定,可不是对多边措施投出的信任票。

Dan Price, partner at the law firm Sidley Austin and President George W. Bush’s “sherpa” representative at the G20, says the forum made remarkable achievements at the very height of the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.

盛德国际律师事务所(Sidley Austin)合伙人、曾任美国总统乔治•W•布什(George W. Bush) G20特使的丹•普莱斯(Dan Price)表示,2008至2009年全球金融危机期间,G20取得了卓越成就。

But he adds that fixing the global economy needs more than just a deal on exchange rates and fiscal deficits, and must address Europe’s sovereign debt problems, Germany’s current account surpluses and rigidities in the European labour market.

但他也表示,修复全球经济,需要的不仅仅是一份汇率和财政赤字方面的协议,还必须解决欧洲主权债务问题、德国经常项目盈余以及欧洲劳动力市场僵化等等问题。

“While much can be accomplished, it would be unrealistic to expect that the G20 summit could definitively resolve all these issues in one grand bargain with metrics and timetables,” he says.

普莱斯表示:“虽然G20大有可为,但我们不能不切实际地以为,G20峰会借助一项有时间表、有衡量标准的宏伟协议,就可以彻底解决所有这些问题。”

译者/杨远

艾伦•贝蒂上一篇文章:

美财长呼吁国会在人民币问题上加大压力 2010-09-17

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本文涉及话题:汇率 美元 人民币 广场协议 日元

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