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@FT中文网【Lex专栏:中国应慎打“稀土牌”】围绕一个渔民而发生的纠纷,使市场充分意识到中国掌控稀土市场的全面影响。对中国来说,对其它国家也给予“日本式待遇”的诱惑力肯定很大,但这也是中国应当抵制的一个诱惑。
2010年09月29日 06:59 AM

Lex专栏:中国应慎打“稀土牌”
Rare earths

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You can almost hear the yelps from day traders. In the four days since reports emerged of restricted rare-earth shipments between China and Japan, shares in Hong Kong-listed China Rare Earth Holdings have leapt almost 40 per cent. Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare Earth, the Shanghai-listed behemoth satisfying two-fifths of world demand, is now up 156 per cent year-to-date, against a benchmark down by a fifth.

你几乎可以听到短线操盘手们的呼喊。在中国对日本限制出口稀土的消息传来后的四天内,在香港上市的中国稀土控股(China Rare Earth Holdings)股价飙升近40%。在上海上市的稀土业巨擘、满足全球五分之二需求的内蒙古包钢稀土(Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare Earth),今年迄今股价已猛涨156%,而基准股指则下滑五分之一。

It has taken a falling-out over a fisherman for markets to appreciate the full implications of China’s control over the market for metallic elements used in smartphones, hybrid cars and precision weapons. China doesn’t have a particularly strong grip on rare-earth reserves; its 36m tonnes are only slightly more than the US (13m) and the former Soviet Republics (19m) put together. But after three decades of investment in upstream mining and downstream processing, steadily driving global competitors out of business, what it does have is 97 per cent of last year’s 124,000-tonne production. China has repeatedly toyed with export tariffs and quota cuts since 2006. Now, with an outright infringement of sales to its biggest customer, resource-poor Japan, it appears to be going one step further.

围绕一个渔民发生的纠纷,使市场充分意识到中国掌控稀土市场的全面影响。稀土是一些金属元素,用于智能手机、混合动力汽车和精确武器。就储量而言,中国对稀土的控制并不特别强大:其3600万吨的储量仅略高于美国(1300万吨)与前苏联各共和国(1900万吨)之和。但经过30年对上游开采和下游加工的投资、一步步地迫使国际竞争对手退出该行业,中国确实占据了去年全球12.4万吨产量的97%。自2006年以来,中国已一再尝试征收出口关税和削减配额。如今,中国通过完全叫停对资源贫乏的最大客户日本的稀土销售,似乎又向前迈出了一步。

The temptation to give others the Japanese treatment must be enormous. China knows others can’t catch up quickly: by its own admission, the US could take up to 15 years to build a domestic rare-earth supply chain, and for now, there are no effective substitutes for defence systems. But it is one China should resist, mindful of the threat of reciprocal sanctions in the trading of resources – notably oil – it lacks. Meanwhile, though, amid a regional skirmish, there seems little harm in issuing a global reminder of its utter dominance in some very 21st-century products.

对其它国家也给予“日本式待遇”的诱惑力肯定很大。中国明白,其它国家无法迅速赶上:美国自己承认,它可能需要长达15年才能建立国内稀土供应链,而且就目前而言,也找不到有效的替代物取代防务系统中所用的稀土。但这也是中国应当抵制的一个诱惑,记住在其缺乏的资源(尤其是石油)的贸易上,可能遭遇对等的制裁。但与此同时,在一场区域性的纠纷中,提醒全球记住中国绝对掌控着一些非常“21世纪”的产品,似乎没有什么坏处。

Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评,对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

译者/和风

Lex专栏上一篇文章:

Lex专栏:联合利华收购Alberto 2010-09-28

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作者简介

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评,对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析。栏目始于1930年,其团队分布在纽约、伦敦、香港和东京四地。无人确知其名称的起源,有人认为源于拉丁语“微罪不举” 。(Lex专栏更多文章)