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@FT中文网【Lex专栏:向人民币完全可兑换走近一步】近期中国迈向人民币可兑换的步伐相当快,但自由浮动的人民币仍非其必然结果。
2011年09月09日 06:52 AM

Lex专栏:向人民币完全可兑换走近一步
Lex_Renminbi: a small step to freedom

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London’s pre-eminence in foreign exchange is such that it doesn’t need endorsements. Yet the City will be very happy with the one it has just received: China’s official approval for London’s role as an offshore centre for trading renminbi.

在外汇交易领域,伦敦的地位如此显赫,以至于它不需要别人给予认可。然而,伦敦金融城将非常乐于获得它刚刚得到的认可:中国正式认可伦敦成为人民币离岸交易中心之一。

With $2bn of the Chinese currency traded daily (according to HSBC), the renminbi market is minuscule next to the $4,000bn of forex traded each day globally. But renminbi trading is growing fast; that $2bn was literally zero little more than a year ago.

根据汇丰(HSBC)的数据,人民币的日交易量达到20亿美元,这与全球汇市4万亿美元的日交易量相比微不足道。但人民币交易量正在快速增长;不夸张地讲,那20亿美元的交易量在一年多一点之前还是零。

For London, China’s endorsement is essentially a seal of approval on its current activities and a green light to develop further renminbi services and products. The UK hosts 37 per cent of the global forex market, twice the share of its nearest rival, New York. Traders reckon that between one fifth and quarter of renminbi dealing already goes through London, with Hong Kong accounting for most of the rest. As companies increasingly settle Chinese deals in renminbi, trading in the currency will grow exponentially.

对伦敦来说,中国的认可本质上意味着认可其当前活动,并为其进一步开发人民币服务和产品开了绿灯。英国在全球汇市所占份额达到37%,是最接近的竞争对手纽约的两倍。交易员们估计,已经有五分之一至四分之一的人民币交易是经由伦敦完成的,而其余大部分在香港完成。随着企业日趋采用人民币结算对华贸易,人民币交易量将呈现指数级增长。

Yhe approval however has significance far deeper than a transatlantic turf war; it is another small step towards freeing the renminbi. China has recently moved more quickly towards full convertibility, inducing frenzied market excitement. Long-time market participants are revising their expectations for full liberalisation from 30-plus years to as little as five or 10. But a freely floating renminbi is not inevitable – at least, not yet. Most of China’s steps to date have been about facilitating trade. But investment flows, not trade, dominate forex flows. There are still relatively few renminbi-denominated investment products. And currency markets are wild places – just ask Switzerland. China got spooked before, in 2008, and halted its reforms. It has not yet gone so far that it cannot slam on the brakes once more.

不过,中国的认可具有另一层重大意义,其深度远远超出英美两国之间的较劲;让伦敦成为人民币离岸交易中心之一,是朝向放开人民币迈出的又一小步。近期中国向人民币完全可兑换前进的步伐相当快,引发市场高度兴奋。长期市场参与者正在修正自己对人民币完全放开的预期:从30年以上缩短至短短5年或10年。但是,自由浮动的人民币并不是必然结果——至少现在还不是。迄今中国采取的步骤多数是为了便利贸易。但投资(而非贸易)流动主导着汇市流动。人民币计价的投资产品相对而言仍很少。况且当前的汇市非常动荡,只要看看瑞士的情况就会明白。中国曾在2008年受到惊吓,结果暂停了汇改。迄今中国的进展还没有大到不能再次踩刹车的地步。

Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评,对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

译者/和风

Lex专栏上一篇文章:

Lex专栏:巴茨之后的雅虎怎么办? 2011-09-08

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本文涉及话题:人民币 国际化 伦敦 离岸中心
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作者简介

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评,对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析。栏目始于1930年,其团队分布在纽约、伦敦、香港和东京四地。无人确知其名称的起源,有人认为源于拉丁语“微罪不举” 。(Lex专栏更多文章)