A few weeks ago, China’s biggest bank by customers dispatched a quiet delegation of top officials to Greece. Agricultural Bank of China was not there to make an opportunistic acquisition of its Greek namesake or to do a bit of Chinese empire building. This was a more fundamental trip, part of a eurozone fact-finding mission that bears testimony to one thing – China is worried about the state of the eurozone. And it is not alone among its Asian neighbours. | 几周前,中国客户数量最多的银行不动声色地派遣了一个高管代表团访问希腊。中国农业银行(Agricultural Bank of China)去那儿并不是为了伺机收购希腊农业银行,或者为“中国帝国”添砖加瓦。这是一次更为基本的访问,目的在于弄清欧元区所处的现实状况,这表明中国对欧元区的状况十分担忧。而中国并非唯一有此担忧的亚洲国家。 |
Over recent weeks, Asia’s largely dispassionate observation of the economic slowdown in Europe has given way to fears that the eurozone’s sovereign debt woes could trigger deep problems for the broader Asian economy and its financial centres. | 最近几周,对于欧洲的经济下滑,亚洲原本大体冷静的观察已经让位于担忧,担心欧元区主权债务危机可能给更为广泛的亚洲经济及其金融中心造成深层次的麻烦。 |
Singapore and neighbouring south-east Asian nations are among the most vulnerable to direct disruption, because so much of their economic activity depends on international trade. Even the least bearish bankers are braced for at least a repeat of the 2008 hit to Asia’s economy – and its banks – when the first flush of the global financial crisis led to two quarters of negative growth in the region. | 新加坡和其东南亚邻国是最容易遭受直接冲击的国家,因为它们的大部分经济活动都依赖国际贸易。就连最不悲观的银行家做好了准备,他们认为,亚洲经济及亚洲银行会再次遭遇不亚于2008年的打击,而当时全球金融危机的第一轮冲击曾导致亚洲地区两个季度出现负增长。 |
The old idea of Asia, or many other emerging markets for that matter, being a safe haven from troubles in developed markets, has been discredited. As 2008 showed, there is no such thing as a decoupled economy in a globalised world. | 认为亚洲、或者许多其他新兴国家,是躲避发达市场麻烦的避风港的老观点,已经不再成立。2008年的情形表明,在一个全球化的世界,不存在所谓脱钩的经济体。 |
Asia today faces two waves of pain. The direct financial impact will be felt as trading volumes on financial markets fade, just as they have in the west. When markets are as jittery as they are now, it seems geographic diversification counts for little – only a sock under the bed will do. | 亚洲如今面临两波阵痛。如果金融市场交易量像西方一样萎缩,亚洲将感受到金融领域的直接冲击。鉴于目前市场上弥漫着紧张情绪,地区多样化似乎并不能避免风险——只有把钱藏在床底下才保险。 |
The drying-up of trade links, as exporters lose customers, will compound the financial slowdown. Nowhere is this more powerful than in China, where exports still account for close to two-thirds of GDP and banks are the lifeblood of that trade flow. | 如果出口商失去客户,贸易往来的枯竭将进一步加重金融危机的影响。中国受到的影响将比任何其他国家都严重,因为出口仍占中国GDP的近三分之二,银行则是支持这些贸易的生命线。 |
Proponents of the Asian dream are, of course, right to point out that any impact will be cushioned. The region has liquid banking systems, with high savings rates, and capital ratios solidified by tougher rule-making in the wake of the 1997 Asia crash, which should guard against the damaging evaporation of funding at many banks in the eurozone. | 当然,亚洲梦的支持者有一点是对的,那就是任何影响都将得到缓冲。亚洲地区银行体系流动性良好,储蓄率也高,而且1997年亚洲危机之后,更为严格的监管巩固了银行的资本比率,这些都将保护亚洲银行,使之不会出现欧元区许多银行所发生的破坏性资金枯竭。 |
There are also valid arguments to support the fundamental strengths of the region’s economies – hikes in property prices are supported by a powerful trend of urbanisation that is quite different from the speculative development that spelt trouble in Ireland and Spain. | 亚洲经济在基本面上仍具优势这一点,也得到一些有效论据的支持——亚洲房地产价格飙升是由强劲的城市化趋势所支撑的,这与在爱尔兰和西班牙引发问题的投机性开发不同。 |
But that is only half the story. There is a powerful reason why Asia’s infamous property bubble – spanning China, Singapore and Hong Kong – will burst and take the region’s banks with it. | 但这只说对了一半。有一个有力的理由能够说明,为什么亚洲恶名远扬的房地产泡沫——横扫了中国、新加坡和香港——将会破裂,并把该地区的银行一起拉下水。 |
Forget lenders’ defence about the tiny property risks they are running. Yes, their nominal exposures are limited. (AgBank, for example, reports barely a 0.5 per cent non-performing loan ratio on its mortgage lending, and 1.2 per cent on property developer loans. And together, those categories account for less than a quarter of overall lending.) But a blinkered focus on explicit real estate exposures misses the point. | 不要理会银行为自己的辩护——说自己面临的房地产风险很小。是的,它们的名义风险敞口有限。(例如,农行所报告的抵押贷款不良率仅为0.5%,房地产开发贷款不良率仅为1.2%。并且这两项贷款加在一起,只占贷款总额的不到四分之一。)但把视野仅仅局限于显性的房地产风险敞口,根本没有切中目标。 |
The real risk lies in the danger of a domino effect. There are at least two potential starting points for it to go wrong, pretty quickly. | 真正的风险在于多米诺效应。至少可能在两个方面出现纰漏,并且可能很快。 |
First, the obvious trade route. If Chinese companies see export volumes shrink, they are likely to struggle to meet loan repayments (and remember, China’s economic stimulus was administered via enforced lending expansion, to the tune of 30 per cent in 2009 and 20 per cent in 2010). That in turn could prompt banks to seize collateral underpinning the loan, which according to some estimates comprises real estate to the tune of more than 90 per cent. | 首先,显而易见的是贸易这条线。当中国公司的出口量萎缩时,它们便可能很难偿还贷款(请记住,中国的经济刺激是通过强制的信贷扩张实现的,2009年信贷扩张高达30%,2010年为20%)。这反过来可能促使银行没收为贷款提供担保的抵押品,根据一些估计数据,房地产在抵押品中所占比例高达90%。 |
A second likely trigger for problems is banks’ lending to “trust companies”, the lightly regulated financial companies that have filled the gap left by banks in lending to property companies and are now starting to show signs of strain. The risks of an unravelling Chinese real estate story look substantial. | 第二个可能引发问题的是银行向“信托公司”的贷款,信托公司是受监管较松的金融公司,填补了银行留下的向房地产公司提供贷款的空白,现在这些公司已经开始显露出承受过大压力的迹象。中国房地产崩盘的风险看上去极为巨大。 |
Investors have been rapidly realising as much. Chinese banks are now valued on stock markets at barely the value of their underlying assets – half the rate of even six months ago, and almost in line with some eurozone peers. The response of policymakers on Monday, to pledge an intervention to buy Chinese bank shares on the stock market, was bold. | 投资者也已迅速认识到这一点。中资银行目前的市值勉强与账面资产持平——市账率仅为6个月前的一半,几乎与一些欧元区银行在同一水平。政策制定者在周一做出了十分大胆的反应:他们宣布进行市场干预,购入中资银行股票。 |
However, back in the eurozone, there is still profound uncertainty about whether a solution can be found that preserves the region’s integrity and keeps the region’s banks afloat. | 然而,回来说欧元区,该地区能否找到保持地区完整、并使银行免于陷入绝境的解决方案,仍然存在很大的不确定性。 |
If it can’t, Chinese banks and policymakers might yet be back on a aeroplane to Europe to knock some heads together. | 如果找不到解决方案,中资银行和中国的政策制定者或许还要再次登上飞往欧洲的飞机,去跟欧洲领导人讲讲道理。 |
Patrick Jenkins is the FT’s banking editor. | 帕特里克•詹金斯是英国《金融时报》银行业编辑。 |
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