To the passenger on the Clapham omnibus we must add the driver in the Beijing taxicab. The views of the voter trundling across London on the upper deck of one of the city’s red buses has long been a metaphor for the attention British governments should pay to public opinion. Now the Chinese are complaining that they have politics too. | 与伦敦红色巴士里的乘客一样,我眼前的这位北京的哥肯定也属于普通百姓阶层。乘坐伦敦红色巴士的选民的意见,向来代表着英国政府应予以关注的民意。现在,中国人抱怨道,自己也是有政治观点的。 |
I was introduced to the cab driver by a scholar from Central Party School of China’s Communist party. This is the elite academy where future leaders are trained. Xi Jinping, the school’s present head, is the likely successor to Hu Jintao when the Chinese president steps down next year. In short, these are people worth listening to. | 把我介绍给这位的哥的,是中共中央党校的一位学者。中央党校是培养未来领导人的精英学府。明年中国国家主席胡锦涛卸任时,中央党校校长习近平很可能会接任他的职务。总之,这些人的观点值得一听。 |
The context was the fevered talk about whether China might rescue the eurozone by dipping into its $3,000bn of foreign currency reserves. Mr Hu has rather damped such expectations during this week’s meeting of G20 leaders in Cannes. After the latest pantomime in Athens, some may wonder how long there will be a eurozone to save. | 这里需要提一提背景,那就是针对中国是否会动用3万亿美元外汇储备援助欧元区的讨论正酣。在上周举行的20国集团(G20)戛纳峰会期间,胡锦涛或多或少淡化了此类预期。在雅典方面上演了最新的闹剧之后,有些人想知道的是,这个等待别人前来拯救的欧元区到底还能存续多久。 |
A Chinese bail-out, though, was always an odd suggestion. European governments have all the money they need to sustain the single currency – if that is what they really want to do. The problem has not been one of lack of resources but of the unwillingness of Germany, and of the European Central Bank, to make them available to what Berlin calls the “sinners”. | 话说回来,无论从哪个角度来看,请求中国出手相救都算得上一个古怪的建议。欧洲各国政府拥有维持欧元所需的全部资金——但前提是它们真的想维持欧元。问题并不在于缺乏资金,而在于德国和欧洲央行(ECB)不愿向被柏林方面称为“罪人”的国家提供这些资金。 |
If monetary union does implode, Greece will probably get the blame. But a more accurate epitaph would be something along the lines that Europe’s most ambitious project met its end for the avoidance of moral hazard. No one, after all, could say that sinners have been encouraged to future bad behaviour if the eurozone no longer has any future. | 如果欧元区真的解体,罪责很可能会算在希腊头上。但是,更准确的墓志铭应该是类似这样的话:为了避免道德风险,欧洲最雄心勃勃的计划寿终正寝。毕竟,如果欧元区不再有未来,那就没人会说罪人们未来又有不端行为是因为现在受到了鼓励。 |
It is curious also that Europeans should be so eager to prostrate themselves. It is not so long ago that Paris and Berlin wanted to talk to Beijing about China’s human rights. Now they hold out the begging bowl. Is it really fitting for the president of the French Republic to boast that he is supplicant-in-chief? Perhaps Mr Hu understood the symbolism when he kept Nicolas Sarkozy kicking his heels at the Cannes summit. | 欧洲人如此急切地乞怜也令人感到奇怪。就在不久之前,巴黎方面和柏林方面还想与北京方面谈谈中国的人权问题。现在,它们却伸手向中国乞讨。法国总统尼古拉•萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)自诩“首席乞讨官”,这真的合适吗?或许胡锦涛明白,这种说法只具象征意义,所以才在戛纳峰会上让萨科齐白等了一场。 |
Back, though, to my acquaintance from the Party School. We met in Venice, where he and a group of colleagues joined Europeans and Americans as guests of Aspen Italia and the US Aspen Strategy Group. This unique gathering convenes once a year. It does not put the world to rights, but it does have a stab at illuminating points of conflict and convergence between China and the west. Perhaps after a while it will start to come up with answers to some of the problems. | 不过,还是回过头来说说我那位中央党校的熟人吧。我们是在威尼斯相识的。当时,他和同事们作为意大利阿斯平研究所(Aspen Italia Institute)和美国阿斯平研究所(Aspen Strategy Group)的客人与欧美研究员们在威尼斯聚会。这种独特的聚会每年举行一次。它不会让世界恢复正常,但它的确尝试着阐明中国和西方之间冲突和趋同的原因。或许不久之后,它就会开始为某些问题提供答案。 |
I could not quite fathom whether the participants from Beijing were embarrassed by or contemptuous of the European demarche. Probably a bit of both. All were scrupulously polite. All made the mandatory point about China’s shared interest in a resolution of Europe’s problems. The European Union, after all, is China’s biggest market and, importantly, an alternative to the US. | 我有点搞不清楚的是,欧洲的新方针是会令这些北京方面的客人感到尴尬、还是会令他们瞧不起。或许兼而有之吧。他们都客气得有些过头。每个人都强调了解决欧洲的问题同样有利于中国。这个表态是必须的。毕竟,欧盟是中国最大的市场,提供了美国之外的另一种选择——这一点非常重要。 |
The consensus seemed to be that Beijing might eventually contribute the odd €10bn to the special purpose vehicle that, Greece permitting, is supposed to save the euro. Incidentally, I had thought the complex financial engineering now being embraced by governments was one of the causes of the problem, but that is another story. | 人们的共识似乎是:北京方面最终会出面填补特殊目的工具那100亿欧元融资缺口。如果希腊方面没什么意见的话,这个特殊目的工具应该可以拯救欧元。顺便说一句,我曾认为如今各国政府欣然采纳的这种复杂金融工程,正是导致问题的原因之一,但此处暂且不表。 |
There would of course be a price for Chinese help. What Europeans had to understand, I was told, was that a handout to rich foreigners was not going to be popular in a nation where per capita incomes are a small fraction of those in the west. If the man in the Beijing cab was to be persuaded, Europe would have to offer something in return. What about market economy status for Chinese exporters? And wasn’t it time the EU looked again at its post-Tiananmen arms embargo? | 中国当然不会无条件提供帮助。我被告知,欧洲人得明白,中国的人均收入只有西方的一个零头,让这样一个国家向那些富裕的外国人伸出援手,它的老百姓可不会乐意。假如要说服北京的哥这样的老百姓,欧洲必须提供某种回报。是不是能承认中国在国际贸易中的市场经济地位呢?天安门事件后持续至今的欧盟对华武器禁运也是时候该重新考虑一下了吧? |
Most westerners, I suspect, will share my suspicion about such supposed sensitivity to public opinion. A party machine so ruthless in the exercise of its authority is unlikely be perturbed by some grumbling from the front seat on the cab ride to the Great Hall of the People. If Mr Hu were to stuff a few renminbi into Mr Sarkozy’s pocket, you can bet that it would quickly be framed in Beijing as international recognition of China’s success. | 我猜想,可能大多数西方人跟我一样,不会相信中共真这么在意民意。一个能够如此铁面行使自己权力的政党机器,不太可能被一位开出租车前往人民大会堂的人的几句牢骚话所干扰。如果胡锦涛真往萨科齐口袋里塞了点儿人民币,我敢说北京方面很快会将这定调为国际社会对中国之成功的一种认可。 |
On the other hand, the more I listen to Chinese officials of all shapes and sizes, the more I think the invocation of the taxi driver also reflects a genuine tension. As China rises, its worldview will increasingly be shaped by the balance it strikes between the natural eagerness to be recognised as a great power – in its own neighbourhood the great power – and almost compulsive concern about domestic stability. | 但另一方面,我越是倾听中国大大小小的官员的讲话,就越是觉得这位的哥的愿望反映出了一种真正的紧张态势。中国一方面很自然地渴望被国际社会认可为一个大国(以及周边地区的唯一大国),另一方面对于国内稳定有着近乎强迫症似的担忧,它要在这两者之间找到平衡。随着中国逐步崛起,这一平衡将对它的世界观产生越来越大的影响。 |
Deng Xiaoping’s admonition that China should hide its strength has passed its sell-by date. It gets quite hard when you are challenging the US for the position of the world’s most powerful economy. But the second half of Mr Deng’s advice – never claim leadership – is still very much the received wisdom. | 邓小平关于中国应当韬光养晦的忠告已经过了“保质期”。如果中国要挑战美国最强大经济体的地位,那么就很难再韬光养晦了。但邓小平所提忠告的后一半——决不当头——在很大程度上仍是为多数中国人所接受的观点。 |
You catch this in exchanges between Chinese and Americans. Beijing is far more assertive than it once was in claiming suzerainty over its near abroad. Officials can be scathing about US adventurism. But they are as reluctant as ever to shoulder any responsibility for global security. If US foreign policy is about fixing things, China’s approach is best described as sitting tight. | 我们可以在中美两国之间的交锋中捕捉到这一点。在主张对周边地区的“宗主权”时,中国显得远比过去更加果敢。官员们在抨击美国的冒险主义时可谓毫不留情。但他们仍像以往一样不愿对全球安全承担任何责任。如果说美国对外政策是要解决问题,那中国的政策充其量称为按兵不动。 |
Chinese leaders really are worried about internal stability. The danger arises when foreign policy and domestic politics converge. Staged confrontations with the US, Japan or, for that matter, Vietnam, are assured of a cheer or three from the front of the Beijing taxi. They don’t make for a safer world. | 中国领导人真正担忧的是国内稳定。外交政策与国内政策相互呼应之际,就是危险露头之时。精心策划与美国、日本或越南的对抗行为,肯定会赢得北京的哥们的一两声喝彩。但这些对抗并不能让世界变得更加安全。 |
译者/何黎 |





