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@FT中文网【上海地方债:谁是真正的发债主体?】尽管上海地方债是以上海的名义发行,但实际上,将来支付这些债券本息的还是中国财政部。这相当于让你的父母共同为你的抵押贷款担保。
2011年11月16日 07:40 AM

上海地方债:谁是真正的发债主体?
Shanghai’s bond issue: thanks dad

背景
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Nothing beats a bond issue these days when you’re looking for an opportunity to jump to conclusions. No, we’re not talking about Rome, Athens, or Lisbon. Instead attention was on Shanghai, where the municipal government became the first local state entity to offer bonds in almost two decades.

这段时间,如果你想匆忙做出结论,债券发行无疑是一个最容易的话题。不,我们不是在谈论罗马、雅典或里斯本。相反,我们关注的是上海。在那里,上海市政府成为近二十年来首个发行地方债券的主体。

It went well. Yields came in at 3.3 per cent on 5-year notes, lower even than South Korean sovereign debt of the same maturity. So the Chinese local debt crisis, involving Rmb10,700bn ($1,650bn) owed by local authorities across the country, is over?

债券发行颇为顺利。5年期债券利率为3.3%,甚至低于同期限的韩国主权债券。如此说来,牵涉到地方政府10.7万亿元人民币(合1.65万亿美元)债务的中国地方债务危机结束了?

Well, not really. Though Shanghai can now borrow money more cheaply than Malaysia, Australia and Israel, there’s a rather curious comparison within Chinese borders.

嗯,情况并非如此。尽管上海目前能够以低于马来西亚、澳大利亚和以色列的成本借钱,但在中国境内,仍存在相当奇特的比较。

In late October, the finance ministry – ie the central government – issued bonds with yields 3.7 per cent than Shanghai’s Tuesday issue. But this doesn’t tell us that Shanghai is a safer bet than the Middle Kingdom itself. Instead, it suggests that recent steps to loosen monetary policy and ease credit shortfalls have had some impact. There’s a bit more money around now, so appetite is a bit stronger.

10月末,中国财政部(即中央政府)发行了利率为3.7%的债券,高于上海周二发债的利率。但这并非告诉我们,上海是比“中央王国”更安全的押注。相反,它表明最近中国放松货币政策和缓解信贷短缺的措施取得了一些效果。目前的资金更多一些,因此需求也更强一些。

More importantly, however, is the matter of who is really issuing the debt.

然而,更重要的问题在于:谁是真正的发债主体?

China’s local governments have clocked up huge debt piles in the past few years, most of it owed to the country’s state-owned banks, and much of it off balance sheet. Fears have been growing over how those local authorities will find the money to pay the banks back – or whether, as Credit Suisse have suggested, the central government will need to infuse the banks with more capital to meet the gaping shortfall.

过去几年,中国地方政府累积了巨额债务,债主大多是中国国有银行,而且许多债务不在资产负债表上。外界越来越担心那些地方政府如何找到资金、以偿还银行贷款,或者如瑞信(Credit Suisse)所言,中央政府是否需要向银行注入更多的资本,来填补日益扩大的缺口。

Some had hoped the bond market would offer the local governments a healthier way out – or at least a path to transparent and controlled leverage. If they could raise money themselves in the bond market, perhaps the central government could reduce the need for a costly bailout.

一些人曾希望,债券市场将为地方政府提供一种更健康的摆脱困境的方式,或者至少是一个透明而可控的举债途径。如果它们自己能在债券市场筹资,或许中央政府可以降低代价高昂的纾困举措的必要性。

But while this new bond carries Shanghai’s name, it is directly linked to China’s central government’s bank account. In fact, it’ll be the same finance ministry that pays both the interest and the principal on the bonds.

但是,尽管这种新债券是以上海的名义发行的,但它直接与中国中央政府的银行账户挂钩。实际上,将来支付这些债券利息和本金的同样是财政部。

It’s the local government equivalent of getting your parents to co-sign on your mortgage. In that sense, the market appetite does not tell us whether local government can find a cheap alternative source of funding away from the state coffers.

这相当于让你的父母共同为你的抵押贷款担保。就此而言,市场需求并未告诉我们,地方政府是否找到了一个国库之外、成本低廉的替代融资来源。

So while Shanghai can be relieved that the bond has done well, it should be thanking the Bank of Dad.

因此,尽管上海可能因为债券发行顺利而松了口气,但它应该感谢的是“银行爸爸”(Bank of Dad)。

译者/何黎

乔希•诺布尔上一篇文章:

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本文涉及话题:中国财政 中国地方债
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