When the global financial crisis struck in 2008, China’s financial sector was in relatively good shape. Years of gradual reform and the government-led transition towards a more commercially oriented system saw improvements in the structure, transparency and oversight of financial institutions. But the risk is that, in a global sector changing at lightning speed, reform is not moving fast enough. | 2008年爆发全球金融危机时,中国金融业的状况相对较好。多年的渐进式改革,以及政府主导的、以更为商业化的体系为目标的转型,使金融机构在结构、透明度和监管方面都有所改善。但风险在于,在一个瞬息万变的全球行业,改革的速度仍不够快。 |
The warning bells were sounded this week by the International Monetary Fund’s inaugural report on the Chinese financial system. While acknowledging the progress made so far, the IMF highlights a “steady build-up in vulnerabilities” that stem from Beijing’s continued iron grip on its banking sector and which should be taken seriously by government authorities. | 本周,国际货币基金组织(IMF)首份针对中国金融体系的报告敲响了警钟。在承认迄今取得的进步的同时,IMF着重指出,北京方面继续严密管制国内银行业,由此导致“脆弱性不断蓄积”,这些脆弱性应当得到政府主管部门的重视。 |
These include the growing complexity of the financial system, in part due to previous reforms. It also cites the rise of shadow banking, and distortions in capital allocation created by the government’s still dominant role in dictating banks’ lending policies. In effect the government has been using the financial system to fund public expenditure, thus raising the risk of hidden deficits and unexpected contingent liabilities. | 此类脆弱性包括金融体系的复杂性不断增加(这在一定程度上可归因于以往的改革)。报告还指出:中国的影子银行业正在发展壮大,同时政府在指导银行放贷政策方面仍扮演着主导角色,造成资本配置不当。实际上,中国政府一直在利用金融体系来资助公共支出,从而提高了隐藏赤字和意外或有债务的风险。 |
Beijing must loosen its grip, not just on how banks lend but on interest and exchange rates. Only this will make banks robust enough to face shocks similar to those that have convulsed the global financial system. | 北京方面必须放松其管制,不仅是针对银行如何放贷,也包括在利率和汇率方面的管制。只有这样才能使各银行足够稳健,能够面对曾使全球金融体系发生痉挛的冲击。 |
There may be a temptation in some quarters of Beijing to dismiss the IMF’s warnings as outside interference. But such grandstanding would tarnish the progress already made in reforming China’s still partly closed economy. In fact, many of the IMF’s recommendations simply echoed the direction already set out in the Five Year Plan unveiled last March. | 北京有些人可能忍不住会对IMF的警告不屑一顾,称其为外来干预。但这将是哗众取宠,会令中国在改革仍未全面开放的经济方面已取得的进展减色。事实上,IMF的许多建议,只是呼应了今年3月份发布的中国“十二五”规划中已经列明的各个方向。 |
It is also welcome that China has finally opened its doors to IMF monitors, who for several years were barred from conducting such assessments. The fact that certain information was withheld is to be deplored. But, to be fair, China is not the only country to do so. | 同样可喜的是,中国终于向IMF监督人员敞开了大门,此前数年,中国一直不让他们进行这样的评估。某些信息未能公开的事实应当受到谴责。但公平地说,中国并非唯一这么做的国家。 |
That said, there remains a reluctance in Beijing to move more quickly on the next stage of reform and this is likely to intensify. It is true that the government needs time to implement deep reform. But the next stage of liberalisation will also mean a loss of political power. That is not something that China’s Communist party appears ready to accept. It should be bolder. The cost of not acting now could impose a higher price later – both economically and politically. | 话说回来,北京仍不愿加快推进改革的下一阶段,这种情况有可能加剧。没错,政府需要时间来实施深度改革。但下一阶段的放开,也将意味着失去政治权力。这似乎不是中国共产党准备接受的。中共应该更加大胆。现在裹足不前,可能意味着将来付出更高代价——无论在经济上和政治上皆是如此。 |
译者/何黎 |




