Ever since Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, promised in October to “pre-emptively fine-tune policy at a suitable time and by an appropriate degree” markets have been waiting for monetary easing to begin, writes Jonathan Wheatley. | 自从中国国务院总理温家宝10月份承诺要“适时适度对政策进行有前瞻性的微调”以来，市场一直在等待央行开始放松货币政策。 |
In fact it is already under way, in the form of increased lending from China’s state-owned commercial banks and in sharp falls in China’s money market rates. But on Wednesday came the first sign of a lifting of reserve requirements. It has begun with rural banks. More will follow. | 事实上，微调已经在进行之中，体现为国有商业银行放贷规模增加以及货币市场利率大幅下滑。但直到本周三，才出现了下调存款准备金率的首个信号。这是从农村银行开始的，预计还会有更多的后续动作。 |
The People’s Bank of China – the central bank – said on Wednesday it would cut reserve requirements of 16.5 per cent for 20 rural co-operative banks by 0.5 percentage points this month, Bloomberg reported. | 据彭博社(Bloomberg )报道，中国人民银行周三宣布，从本月起将把20家农村合作银行当前为16.5%的存款准备金率下调0.5个百分点。 |
The bank raised the requirement from 16 to 16.5 per cent on November 25 for a year, it said, so the cut is scheduled. But there is more to the timing than this. Inflation fell sharply in October. On Wednesday, China’s preliminary purchasing managers’ index came in at 48 points – anything below 50 means a contraction in spending – its lowest level since March 2009. | 报道称，央行从去年11月25日起，把这些银行的存款准备金率从16%上调为16.5%，执行期限为一年，所以下调是计划之中的。但此次下调的时机有着更大的意义。10月份通胀率大幅下降。而周三出炉的数据显示，中国采购经理指数(PMI)初值为48点，为2009年3月以来最低水平。读数低于50表明支出萎缩。 |
Clearly, the world’s second-biggest economy is cooling. | 显然，世界第二大经济体正在降温。 |
“I wouldn’t blow [Wednesday’s announcement] out of proportion but it is undoubtedly important,” the FT’s Simon Rabinovitch told beyondbrics. “It’s clear that some parts of the country think it is time to ease and it’s now a matter of time before we see reserve requirements cut across the board.” | 英国《金融时报》记者欧阳德(Simon Rabinovitch)表示：“我不会夸大其辞，但此次下调存款准备金率无疑是个重要信息，很明显，这个国家的某些环节认为是时候放松了，存款准备金率全面下调目前来说只是个时间问题。” |
Mark Williams, Asia economist at Capital Economics, said: “The unexpectedly sharp drop in China’s flash PMI for November, if corroborated by other indicators, is likely to push policymakers to go beyond policy ‘fine-tuning’ to outright easing. Confirmation that the People’s Bank has lowered reserve requirements for some banks is likely to be only the start.” | 凯投宏观(Capital Economics)亚洲经济学家马克•威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)表示：“11月PMI初值意外大幅下滑，假如得到其他指标的印证，可能会促使政策制定者从政策‘微调’跨越到全面放松。央行下调部分银行的存款准备金率，可能只是一个开始。” |
Perhaps – but don’t necessarily expect a full blown interest rate cut. Cutting reserve requirements amounts almost to the same thing, as Beijing can order commercial banks to increase or rein in lending. | 或许吧，但央行未必会全面降息。不过下调存款准备金率几乎具有相同的效果，因为当局可以命令商业银行增加或减少放贷。 |
The central bank gave no indication of whether it might cut reserve requirements for the largest commercial banks – although that may come in January. | 央行丝毫没有透露是否会下调大型商业银行的存款准备金率。预计央行可能在1月份采取这样的动作。 |
译者/何黎 |
2011年11月24日 07:47 AM
中国货币政策：微调进行时？
中国货币政策：微调进行时？ China cuts reserve requirements: real easing at last?
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