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@FT中文网【中国11月制造业活动出现收缩】PMI指数下滑至49.0,为近三年来首次,表明经济放缓速度快于预期
2011年12月01日 12:44 PM

中国11月制造业活动出现收缩
Chinese manufacturing activity slows

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China’s manufacturing sector contracted in November, marking the first decline since February 2009, according to government figures.

中国政府数据显示,11月中国制造业活动出现收缩,这是自2009年2月以来的首次。

The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in November from 50.4 in October, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. A reading of more than 50 signals expansion while a reading below 50 means the sector contracted.

中国国家统计局(NBS)的数据显示,11月中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)从10月份的50.4降至49.0。PMI数值高于50表明制造业活动扩张,低于50则表明收缩。

In a surprise move that was clearly timed to offset the negative impact of Thursday’s PMI number, China’s central bank kicked off a new round of monetary easing on Wednesday evening by announcing a cut in the reserve ratio for banks for the first time in three years.

中国央行周三晚间宣布下调银行存款准备金率(这是三年来的首次),从而开启了新一轮的货币宽松政策。这一令人意外的举措显然是为了抵消周四PMI数据的不利影响。

By reducing the amount of deposits banks must hold on reserve by 0.5 percentage points, the central bank effectively injected around Rmb400bn ($63bn) into the banking system so that lenders could extend more credit to the slowing economy.

通过下调银行存款准备金率0.5个百分点,中国央行实际上向银行业体系注入了约4000亿元人民币(合630亿美元),从而使得银行可以向日益减速的经济投放更多贷款。

“The markets have been handed a powerful one-two combo, in the form of a shocking PMI print and an aggressive RRR cut,” said Alistair Thornton, China analyst at IHS Global Insight. “The message is clear: the economy is slowing much faster than expected and the government has stepped into the ring.”

环球通视(IHS Global Insight)中国事务分析师阿利斯泰尔•桑顿(Alistair Thornton)表示:“令人震惊的PMI数值和积极下调存准率是给予市场的一记有力的‘组合拳’。传递的信息很明确:经济放缓的速度远快于预期,政府已入场干预。”

Most analysts did not expect monetary easing to begin until the first quarter of next year at the earliest but Beijing is facing the prospect of a stall in its two major engines of growth – exports and real estate.

大多数分析师此前预计,起码在明年一季度前中国不会放松货币政策,但中国政府面临出口和房地产两大增长引擎停滞的风险。

Policymakers are now more concerned about supporting growth than tackling inflation and are expected to announce more monetary loosening measures in the coming months.

政策制定者们目前更关心支持增长,而不是遏制通胀。预计他们将在未来几个月宣布更多的货币宽松举措。

That reverses two years of gradual monetary tightening in which the government has been trying to cool growth and rein in persistently high price increases in a campaign that appears to have been largely successful.

这是对连续两年货币政策逐步收紧的一个逆转。两年来中国政府一直试图为经济增长降温,同时抑制物价的持续上涨,目前看来这种努力取得了很大的成效。

JPMorgan analysts said they expect consumer inflation to be about 4.5 per cent in November, down from 5.5 per cent in October and well below the peak of 6.5 per cent in July. The input prices sub-index of November’s official PMI, an indicator of inflationary pressure, supported that forecast, declining to 44.4 from 46.2 in October.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)的分析师表示,他们预计11月份的消费者价格指数将达到4.5%左右,低于10月份的5.5%,且远低于7月份触及的6.5%的峰值。11月份官方PMI的投入价格分项指标(该指标能反映出通胀压力)支持了这一预测:该数据由10月份的46.2降至44.4。

But pulling down inflation has come at the cost of a steeper than expected drop in growth. In a sign that the economy is likely to slow even more in the coming months, the new orders sub-index fell 2.7 points to 47.8, while the new export orders sub-index dropped 3 points to 45.6.

通胀的确得到了抑制,但代价却是增长放缓幅度大于预期。数据显示,新增订单分项指标下降2.7点,至47.8,同时新增出口订单分项指标下滑3点,至45.6,这些迹象表明中国经济在未来数月中可能进一步放缓。

Meanwhile, real estate sales volumes have dropped sharply across the country and more than halved from a year earlier in some major cities while prices have also started to decline.

另一方面,全国范围内的楼市销量均出现大幅下滑,一些大城市的房屋销量甚至较上年同期减少了一半。同时,房价也已开始下跌。

Although construction growth in the country has held up until now, most property developers appear to be delaying new projects, raising the prospect of a halt in housing construction that could be devastating for the wider economy.

尽管到目前为止,国内的建筑增长依然保持着良好态势,但大部分地产商似乎正在搁置新项目,这不免使人猜测住房建设将陷入停滞,从而给整个经济造成毁灭性影响。

Real estate construction accounted for about a quarter of all investment in China last year and around 13 per cent of GDP.

去年,房地产建设在国内的所有投资中占到了约四分之一,在GDP中的比重约为13%。

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