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@FT中文网【中国货币供应量增速降至10年最低水平】远低于中国央行认为支撑经济增长所需水平,使得政府放松货币政策压力加大
2011年12月15日 07:32 AM

中国货币供应量增速降至10年最低水平
China money growth slows to lowest in more than a decade

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Chinese money growth slowed to its lowest in more than a decade last month, keeping the pressure on the government to loosen monetary policy and prevent the economy from slowing too sharply.

中国货币供应量增速上月降至10多年来最低水平,继续对政府构成压力,要求政府放松货币政策,防止经济放缓过于急剧。

Beijing has already switched to easing mode, as marked by its cut of banks’ reserve requirements two weeks ago, but the latest data showed downside risks were still proliferating.

两周前银行存款准备金率的下调表明,北京方面已转向宽松姿态,但最新数据显示,经济下行风险仍在扩大。

The broad M2 measure of money supply rose 12.7 per cent from a year earlier, the slowest since May 2001 and well below the 16 per cent rate that the central bank believes is necessary to support economic growth.

衡量货币供应量的广义M2指标同比上升12.7%,为自2001年5月以来的最低水平,远低于中国央行认为支撑经济增长所必需的16%。

“Money creation remains quite sluggish,” said Citi economist Shuang Ding. “We expect more reserve requirement cuts before the Chinese New Year [at the end of January].”

“货币创造仍然十分疲弱,”花旗(Citi)经济学家丁爽表示。“我们预测,在中国农历新年(明年1月底)之前,存款准备金率还会下调。”

Policy is the main uncertainty hanging over the Chinese economy, with some analysts warning that the government is moving too tentatively to counter the dangers of a sharp slowdown. Beijing has been undeniably cautious in its shift towards easing, preferring to describe its moves as “fine-tuning” rather than a change in stance.

政策是悬在中国经济头上的主要不确定因素,一些分析人士警告,政府在对抗经济急剧放缓的风险方面行动太犹豫。北京方面在转向宽松姿态时无疑十分谨慎,更愿意称其动作为“微调”,而不是转变姿态。

That caution was on display again at the central economic work conference, where the nation’s top leaders laid out a blueprint for economic policies for the coming year. At the end of the conference yesterday, the government gave the maintenance of “stable, fast growth” top spot in its list of objectives. But it also highlighted the importance of managing inflationary expectations, a signal that it will desist from the same magnitude of credit-fuelled stimulus that it unleashed in late 2008 at the onset of the global financial crisis.

在中央经济工作会议上,这种谨慎再次得以体现。会上,中国最高领导人为即将到来的2012年制定了经济政策蓝图。在昨天会议结束时,政府将维持“平稳较快发展”放在一系列目标的首位。但政府也强调了管理通胀预期的重要性,这个信号表明,中国政府不会采取类似于其在2008年底全球金融危机爆发时出台的由信贷推动的大规模刺激方案。

While wary of over-stimulating the economy, analysts say the government could quietly water down some of its regulatory constraints on banks to make it easier for them to support cash-starved companies.

分析人士称,虽然政府担心过度刺激经济,但可以不动声色地放宽对银行的一些监管限制,使其更易于支持急缺资金的企业。

The data published yesterday by the central bank revealed that bank deposits grew considerably more slowly than loans last month. With many smaller banks now flirting with the regulatory maximum of a 75 per cent loan-to-deposit ratio, the struggle to attract deposits will dent their ability to extend loans – unless the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) cuts offenders some slack.

中国央行昨天发布的数据显示,上个月,银行存款增速大大低于贷款。由于许多小银行的贷存比徘徊在75%的监管上限附近,吸存难度将损害它们的放贷能力——除非中国银监会(CBRC)给违规者一些回旋余地。

“We expect the CBRC to be more flexible in implementing macro-prudential measures in 2012 so as to ensure sufficient credit expansion,” said Barclays Capital analyst Jian Chang.

“我们预测,2012年,银监会在实施宏观审慎措施时会更加灵活,以确保信贷足量扩张,”巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)分析师常健表示。

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本文涉及话题:中国经济 货币政策 货币供应
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