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@FT中文网【对冲基金担忧中国经济前景】因为官方信息晦涩,不少对冲基金已派人往中国实地搜集数据
2011年12月20日 14:41 PM

对冲基金担忧中国经济前景
Hedge fund alarm bells are ringing over China

背景
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The eurozone’s political tarantella may still be roiling global markets but some of the world’s savviest investors are already turning their attention elsewhere.

欧元区的政治闹剧或许仍让全球市场惶惶不安,但一些全球最敏锐的投资者已将注意力转向其它地方。

It is not trips to Brussels or Frankfurt that analysts at large and secretive hedge funds are planning in the first few months of 2012, but data-gathering exercises in Shenzen and Guangzhou.

大部分分析师和行事隐秘的对冲基金为2012年头几个月做的安排,不是奔赴布鲁塞尔或法兰克福,而是去深圳和广州收集数据。

The past few weeks have seen China loom large in the nightmares of many hedge fund managers still smarting from a less-than glory-filled 2011. Concerns are rising for the global outlook over the increasingly negative economic signals emanating from the country.

过去几周里,就在许多基金经理仍在为不那么光辉的2011年而伤心的时候,中国已在他们的噩梦中投下越来越大的阴影。国际社会对中国发出的日益消极的经济信号越来越担忧。

As the Emerging Sovereign Group, a $1bn hedge fund backed by Julian Robertson and half-owned by Carlyle, one of the world’s biggest private equity groups, told its clients in a recent note: “[We have a] gathering sense that the next act of this rolling global debt crisis may well play out in the East.”

由朱利安•罗伯逊(Julian Robertson)出资建立、目前一半股权为凯雷(Carlyle)持有的Emerging Sovereign Group(简称ESG),是一支资产规模达10亿美元的对冲基金。ESG在最近一份简报中告知客户:“(我们有一种)越来越强烈的感觉,这轮全球债务危机的下一幕将在东方上演。”凯雷是全球最大的私人股本集团之一。

ESG sent a team for a two week “deep-dive research trip” to China in October, an investor told the Financial Times.

一名投资者向英国《金融时报》透露,ESG在10月份派出了一个团队,赴中国展开为期两周的“深潜式研究之旅”。

“Even though an aggressive stimulus programme allowed China to sidestep a post-Lehman recession, rendering events there, for a time, secondary to developments in the US and Europe, the Chinese economy could soon take centre stage,” the group said.

“尽管中国凭借积极的刺激计划避免了雷曼(Lehman)事件之后的衰退,令该国的事态发展在一段时间内不如美国和欧洲严重,但中国经济可能很快就将成为人们关注的焦点,”ESG表示。

ESG is a voice to listen to: it is one of the few hedge funds that saw the eurozone crisis coming, and has made its clients a considerable sum as a result. Its flagship fund made 39.6 per cent in 2010 and is up a similar amount this year.

ESG的观点值得一听。它是少数预见到欧元区危机的对冲基金之一,也因此为它的客户大赚了一笔。它的旗舰基金在2010年获利39.6%,今年的回报率也接近这一数字。

It is far from being alone. “In China, both the official and the HSBC PMI [a reading on manufacturing activity] suffered significant losses in November,” Brevan Howard, the world’s second largest macro hedge fund, with assets of more than $32bn under management, wrote to clients in its latest letter.

ESG决非唯一持有如此观点的基金。“在中国,官方和汇丰(HSBC)的采购经理人指数(PMI)(衡量制造业活动的指标)在11月份都大幅下降,”全球第二大宏观对冲基金布勒旺霍华德(Brevan Howard)在致客户的最新信件中表示。布勒旺霍华德管理着逾320亿美元资产。

“Worryingly, domestic demand was showing the bulk of the weakness according to both metrics.”

“令人担忧的是,这两个指标都表明中国国内需求大幅疲软。”

Few things, seemingly, cause greater alarm in Mayfair’s converted townhouses or Greenwich’s discreet office blocks than a lack of information. “Reading the economic pronouncements of the Chinese government is like kremlinology,” laments one UK-based hedge fund trader.

对那些呆在梅费尔区(Mayfair)改造过的联排别墅或格林威治朴素的办公大楼里的人来说,似乎没有什么比缺乏信息更令他们不安的了。“阅读中国政府的经济公告就像在做前苏联政策研究,”一位驻英国的对冲基金交易员抱怨道。

Faced with obscure communications, hedge funds such as GLG Partners are hiring their own analysts and intelligence gatherers on the mainland to stand outside factory gates, and, quite literally according to one GLG insider, “count the cars”.

面对这种晦涩的情报,像GLG Partners这样的对冲基金正在中国聘用自己的分析师和情报收集人员去工厂大门外收集信息——按照一位GLG内部人士的说法,他们真的是在“数汽车”。

The biggest worry most have of China is not just a manufacturing slowdown, however, but the popping of a massive credit bubble, finding accurate data on which is even more difficult.

然而,大部分人对中国最大的担忧,不只是制造业的下滑,还包括巨大信贷泡沫的破裂——而且准确的信贷数据比准确的制造业数据更难找到。

In cities like Beijing or Shanghai, apartments are said by analysts to sell for as much as 30 times average annual income. Compare that with just less than six times for the worst-stricken subprime properties in the pre-crash US.

据分析人士称,在北京或上海这样的城市,住房的售价达到人均年收入的30倍。与之相比,在楼市崩盘前的美国,即使是那些最离谱的次贷房产的售价,也不到人均年收入的6倍。

Hugh Hendry, one of the hedge fund industry’s most voluble figures, has long been critical of China’s property boom. It is only recently, however, that a jerky, homemade video he uploaded to YouTube in 2009 has become something of a hit in hedge fund circles.

作为对冲基金业最好发议论的人物之一,休•亨德利(Hugh Hendry)长期以来一直对中国的房地产热潮持批评态度。不过,他在2009年上传到YouTube上的、画面抖动的自制视频,直到最近才在对冲基金圈子里引起某种轰动。

译者/方舟

萨姆•琼斯上一篇文章:

“做空中国”基金斩获颇丰 2011-12-13

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