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@FT中文网【分析:中国股市明年有戏吗?】我们假想中国经济会实现软着陆,并且明年将继续以大约8%的速度增长。假如他们是正确的,那你会拿自己的钱去买中国企业的股票吗?
2011年12月23日 07:15 AM

分析:中国股市明年有戏吗?
Chinese stocks going cheap as year ends – for good reason?

背景
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Let’s think warm thoughts as families across China gather round their dinner tables to celebrate the winter solstice festival on Thursday evening and assume that China’s economy is in for a soft landing and will continue to grow at around 8 per cent next year, as the more bullish economists are forecasting.

就在中国各地的家庭周四晚上围坐在餐桌前庆祝冬至的时候,让我们想一些“暖人心”的事情吧:我们假想中国经济会实现软着陆,并且明年将继续以大约8%的速度增长——正如较为乐观的经济学家们所预期的那样。

Supposing they are right, would you put your money into shares of Chinese companies?

假如他们是正确的,那你会拿自己的钱去买中国企业的股票吗?

They have delivered less than stellar returns this year. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks mainland Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, has fallen 23 per cent since January. That’s worse than the CAC 40 in Paris.

它们今年实现的回报率并不那么出色。恒生中国企业指数(Hang Seng China Enterprises Index)——追踪在香港上市的中国内地企业的股价——自1月份以来已累计下跌23%,比法国CAC 40指数的表现还要糟糕。

At the same time, prices of so-called H shares in Hong Kong, the market where most foreign investment in Chinese companies takes place because of its lack of restrictions, are looking quite cheap.

另一方面,香港H股的股价目前看起来相当低廉。由于没有相应的限制,外国投资者对中国企业的大部分投资都在H股市场上进行。

Equities strategists such as Francis Cheung of CLSA say some sectors are reasonably well protected from what is likely to remain a tight monetary environment next year in China, and therefore make good defensive plays during volatile times.

里昂证券(CLSA)的郑名凯(Francis Cheung)等股票策略师表示,明年中国货币环境很可能依然趋紧,但某些板块可在这种环境中做到独善其身,因而在动荡市况下具有良好的防御性。

“We conducted a consumer survey four weeks ago and the result was that people are surprisingly optimistic, and nearly 70 per cent of the respondents are planning to buy a smartphone next year,” he says.

郑名凯说:“我们四周前进行了一次消费者调查。结果显示,人们的乐观程度令人惊讶,近70%的受访者都计划明年购买一部智能手机。”

The telecoms sector is likely to benefit from the rolling out of the 4G network during 2012. One of Cheung’s favourite stocks is ZTE, which makes smartphones and supplies equipment to operators busily upgrading their systems.

2012年期间4G网络的逐渐铺开很可能会令电信板块获益。郑名凯钟爱的个股之一是中兴通讯(ZTE),该公司不仅制造智能手机,还向忙于升级系统的运营商们供应设备。

He is also positive about the auto sector, where share prices have dropped to around 8 times earnings because earlier government incentives to encourage car purchases had expired. Great Wall Motors, for example, was trading at more than 12 times earnings earlier in the year but has fallen to 7 times. “Our consumer survey shows that demand for cars is still high. Also, there are rumours that the government may introduce more support for the industry going forward,” Cheung says.

他还看好汽车板块。该板块的市盈率已跌至8倍左右,因为早先政府为鼓励购车而实行的刺激举措已经过期。以长城汽车(Great Wall Motors)为例,今年早些时候它的市盈率超过12倍,如今已跌至7倍。“我们对消费者的调查表明,汽车需求依然旺盛。此外有传言说,政府或将对汽车行业今后的发展提供进一步的扶持,”郑名凯说。

Share prices of cement manufacturers are also looking attractive. “Fixed asset investment has slowed but it is still expected to reach around 22 per cent next year and there is no over-capacity in the cement industry, unlike steel,” says Cheung.

水泥生产商的股价看起来也很诱人。郑名凯说:“固定资产投资虽然放缓,但明年的增速仍有望达到22%左右。而且与钢铁行业的情况不同,水泥行业不存在产能过剩的问题。”

But his favourite sector is probably the internet players – listed not in Hong Kong but on Nasdaq. The share price of Sina, which has dropped over 60 per cent since its peak in April, doesn’t reflect the enormous popularity of its instant messaging site, Weibo, he says, arguing that the internet sector is a good place to be when the economic outlook is uncertain because it is relatively decoupled from macro conditions.

不过,郑名凯最钟爱的板块也许是互联网——这里指的不是在香港、而是在纳斯达克上市的互联网企业。他指出,新浪(Sina)的股价已自今年4月创下的历史高点下跌逾60%,但新浪股价并没有反映出其即时通讯网站“新浪微博”受到的广泛欢迎。他认为,在经济前景充满不确定性的情况下,互联网板块是不错的选择,因为它与宏观形势相对脱钩。

Others agree with CLSA’s views that Hong Kong’s H-share market offers plenty of upside next year. Goldman Sachs economists expects the HSCEI index to gain over 20 per cent next year, for example.

对于里昂证券认为H股明年将有充裕上行空间的看法,其他人也表示了赞同。比如,高盛(Goldman Sachs)的经济学家就预期,恒生中国企业指数明年的涨幅将超过20%。

Still, before you place your buy orders, bear in mind that the issues which have weighed on share prices have not gone away – matters such as the eurozone crisis, the amount of bad debt in the Chinese banking sector, fear of property prices collapsing and doubts over Beijing’s ability to steer the economy to a soft landing, for example.

不过,在你发出买入指令之前,记住一点:那些曾令股价承压的因素并没有消失——例如,欧元区危机,中国银行业的坏账规模,对房价崩盘的担心,以及对北京方面是否有能力引导经济实现软着陆的怀疑。

译者/何黎

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