It is hard to resist the allure of gaming in Macao. After all, gross gaming revenues in the Chinese region grew 42 per cent last year to $33.5bn, off the already high base of 58 per cent growth in 2010. And although investors may dislike being called gamblers, they still like a flutter. The shares of Macao’s six listed casinos – valued at $60bn combined – rose 14 per cent on average last year, while the Hang Seng fell by the same amount.

But can revenues maintain that clip throughout 2012? Probably not. The average revenue generated by each visitor is still growing, but the pace of growth slowed to 18 per cent in October and November last year, from 36 per cent in the first quarter. It is unlikely, even with new rail links and greater hotel room capacity, that growth in average spending per visitor will match last year’s rate. Casino table numbers, already at 5,300, are close to a regulatory ceiling of 5,500 this year.

This forces casinos into the VIP segment, responsible for about 70 per cent of gaming revenues in Macao. Junket promoters dominate here, by pulling in high-rollers from mainland China. Critically, this exposes Macao’s casinos to Chinese disposable income. The kind of wealthy Chinese households that frequent Macao’s casinos derive about a fifth of their incomes from investments such as property and stocks. With mainland house prices continuing to fall each month, gamblers may feel less flush.

No wonder, then, that like their Las Vegas counterparts, Macao’s casinos are hedging themselves. Galaxy Entertainment, the best stock market performer last year, has opened the enclave’s biggest cinema. Sands China, part of the US group, boosted non-gambling revenues from hotels and shopping malls 50 per cent year on year in its third quarter. Macao’s winners in 2012 will be those who spread their bets.