Standing on a stage in front of tens of thousands of ecstatic supporters, Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s opposition leader, lists what she would do if elected president when the island goes to the polls tomorrow.

The list avoids the thorny question of relations with China, the big issue for international observers. Instead Ms Tsai hammered away, as she has throughout the eight-month campaign, about the economy, the alleged failing of incumbent Ma Ying-jeou, with whom she is running neck and neck in polls, and how voters have been short-changed.

Ms Tsai promises to help develop local economies, build social housing and tax the rich on property transactions – a line particularly cheered by her supporters. “Tsai Ing-wen wouldn’t shout slogans, and wouldn’t promise you that things will immediately improve, but I will work hard to make all those policies come true,” she said.

For the rest of the world, the closely fought election is a referendum on relations across the Strait of Taiwan with China, which have dramatically improved over the past four years under Mr Ma. Yet Sunday’s rally suggests that the closeness of the race had at least as much to do with Ms Tsai’s Democratic Progressive party having successfully galvanised its supporters on domestic issues.

As demonstrated by recent elections in Singapore, popular middle-class discontent with the economy and anger over widening income disparity are providing a boost to opposition movements.

Julian Chou, a 33-year-old IT product manager in Taipei who is a long-time DPP supporter, says that unlike in previous elections, it is economic rather than cross-Strait issues that concern him most this time around.

“The government has been saying that Taiwan’s GDP has grown by a lot over the last three years, but all we have seen is that our wages haven’t increased, while housing and other prices have risen higher and higher,” he said.

Compared with many western economies, Mr Ma has an enviable economic record. Despite slipping into recession in 2009 after the global financial crisis, Taiwan bounced back quickly to grow by 10.72 per cent in 2010, and is expected to have further expanded by 4.5 per cent last year. Unemployment peaked at 6.13 per cent in mid-2009, but has since fallen back down to 4.28 per cent, while inflation remains low at about 2 per cent.

But anxiety is growing over the future of Taiwan’s export-driven economy which has been buffeted by the eurozone crisis. Some companies have recently reinstated no-pay leave for workers, and Terry Gou, chief executive of Hon Hai, the world’s biggest contract electronics manufacturer, this week warned of a global economic downturn this year worse than the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Peter Liu, a 27-year-old Taiwanese national, says he has been unable to find a job since he returned to the island from Australia last October. “I know young Taiwanese my age who have managed to find jobs, but they are earning only T$22,000 ($736) to T$25,000 a month. At that rate, and given how much Taipei housing prices have gone up, you would need to work your whole life just to pay off the mortgage,” he said.

It is because of this that Mr Liu, who says he had no interest in politics in the past, has decided to vote this time for Ms Tsai.

Economists say Taiwan’s average household incomes are only now recovering to pre-2008 levels, while housing prices in Taipei have risen by more than 30 per cent over the past four years.

Born in Taipei and educated at Cornell University and the London School of Economics, Ms Tsai has claimed Mr Ma is backed by “people with money” while her support comes from the “people of Taiwan”.

Some observers say Mr Ma is being unfairly criticised because both the beginning and end of his four-year term coincided with global financial and economic crises. But they also say Mr Ma has over-promised and under-delivered, most notably with his pre-financial crisis campaign promise in 2008 of helping achieve 6 per cent economic growth and 3 per cent unemployment.

Mr Ma, responding to these criticisms on Thursday, said it is “just not true” that his policies have benefited only the rich and the big corporations.