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@FT中文网【中国改革不能止步】博源基金会理事长秦晓:中国过去30年的成功,是由于实行市场改革的缘故。要继续前进,中国现在必须转变政府在经济中所扮演的角色,继续朝着建设自由市场体制的方向推进改革。
2012年01月20日 07:48 AM

中国改革不能止步
The long march ahead to a truly capitalist China

背景
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It was widely believed in the early 1950s that the socialist Chinese government was the saviour of the poor and the free market an evil to our society. However, when the government sent me to the Inner Mongolian countryside to be re-educated in the late 1960s, I realised that such ideological fervour masked the intrinsic flaws of our planned economy. That was the very beginning of my China story.

在上世纪50年代初的中国,人们普遍认为,社会主义政府是穷人的救星,而自由市场则会危害社会。然而,60年代末被下放到内蒙古农村接受再教育时,我认识到,这种意识形态狂热掩盖了我们计划经济的内在缺陷。这正是我要讲述的中国故事的开端。

As a business leader, I experienced the reform of the past 30 years and learnt more about the problems we have to deal with in China. Today, the country is in the late stage of transition from a planned to a market economy – and disputes about the relationship between government and market are different from those in countries that have well-established market systems.

作为一名企业领导,我亲身经历了过去30年的改革,对中国必须应对的问题有了更多的了解。目前,中国正处于从计划经济向市场经济转型的后期阶段——我们关于政府和市场关系的讨论,与那些具备成熟市场体制的国家大不相同。

Even in an economy that has grown at 10 per cent annually in the past three decades, the debate remains: is this success due to government control or the effect of the free market? The answer to this critical question will define China’s future. Will it continue its unfinished free-market reforms or end our 30-year transition where we are now? Do China’s economic problems and social frictions result from market reforms themselves or from bottlenecks and backward steps in the reform process? Is China’s state-dominated economic model a transitional arrangement that has achieved its ends or an innovation that should be strengthened?

即使中国经济在过去30年里以年均10%的速度增长,我们的辩论仍围绕着以下问题:这样的成功是政府控制的结果,还是自由市场的作用?对这个关键性问题的回答,将决定中国的未来。中国将继续推进尚未完成的自由市场改革,还是就此结束历时30年的转型?中国的经济问题和社会摩擦是源自于市场改革本身,还是改革进程中的瓶颈和倒退所致?中国的政府主导型经济模式,究竟是一种已实现目的的转型安排,还是一种应进一步深化的创新?

In addressing economic problems, democratic governments can compromise efficiency or overreact, as they are constrained by voter preferences and partisan struggles. The modern democratic system and the market mechanism are not always ideal partners. But there are no utopias and no perfect systems. The key to whether these systems can sustain themselves and be accepted by society is whether they can avoid big mistakes, and have mechanisms to correct mistakes and make corresponding adjustments.

在解决经济问题的过程中,民主政府由于受到选民偏好和党派斗争的束缚,可能会牺牲效率、或是做出过度反应。现代民主体制和市场机制并不总是理想的搭档。然而,世上没有乌托邦,也不存在完美的体制。这些体制能否自我维系、并为社会所接受,关键在于它们能否避免犯重大错误、具备纠错机制,并做出相应的调整。

Economists and politicians in history have sought alternatives to the modern market system. The two main experiments were the Soviet-era Lenin-Stalin model, on which China’s planned economy was based during the Mao Zedong era, and the east Asian model typified by Japan from the 1960s to the 1970s, which created the economic miracles of Japan and east Asian countries.

在历史上,经济学家和政治家们曾寻找过现代市场体制的替代模式。主要的两项试验是苏联时代的“列宁-斯大林模式”和“东亚模式”,前者是毛泽东时代中国计划经济的基础,而后者则以上世纪六、七十年代的日本为代表,这种模式在日本和一些东亚国家创造了经济奇迹。

In the 1930s, when western economies were mired in the Great Depression, the Lenin-Stalin model led to the rapid growth of the Soviet economy, causing heated debate among economists. Thirty or 40 years later, the Japanese model led to another hot debate. But history has declared the failure of these two systems. The former was a rigid model designed to develop a country’s economic and military power at the expense of individual rights. The latter led to price distortion, misallocation of resources and business-government collusion.

上世纪30年代,当西方经济体陷入“大萧条”之际,列宁-斯大林模式推动苏联经济迅速增长,在经济学家中间引发了热议。三、四十年后,日本模式引起了另一场热烈的辩论。然而,历史已经宣判了这两种模式的失败。前者是一种僵化的模式,以牺牲个人权利为代价,竭力发展经济和军事实力。后者则导致价格扭曲、资源错配和官商勾结。

Modern democracy and the market system need further improvement, but they remain viable, and mankind has not yet found an alternative.

现代民主和市场体制需要进一步改善,但它们仍然是可行的,而且人类迄今尚未找到更好的选择。

So how does this leave China? Beijing launched the reform and opening up process in the late 1970s, then abandoned the planned economy and adopted a socialist market system. This averted the collapse of China’s economy and fuelled rapid growth. During the early stages of the transition, as the market was not yet developed, it was necessary for the government to play a leading role, resulting in a state-dominated system similar to the east Asian or Japanese model. Now, the mission of this state-dominated model is accomplished and it is time to overcome the constraints of special interest groups, transform government functions and further the process of market reform.

那么,这带给中国什么教训呢?中国政府在上世纪70年代末启动改革开放的进程,随后放弃了计划经济,转而采用了社会主义市场体制。这使中国经济得以避免崩溃并迅速增长。在转型的初期阶段,由于市场尚不发达,政府有必要发挥主导作用,因此产生了与东亚或日本模式类似的政府主导型体制。如今,这种政府主导型模式的使命已经完成,接下来我们应该摆脱特殊利益团体的掣肘,转变政府职能,进一步推进市场改革。

There are two essential tasks. A government now focused on the economy needs instead to build a rule of law and provide public services. An economic system now dominated by the government needs to become one led by the market and regulated by the government.

当前有两项任务必须完成。第一,政府必须把重点从发展经济,转向完善法治和提供公共服务。第二,经济体制必须从政府主导转向市场主导,政府则发挥监管的职能。

To achieve this, the government must scrap procedures for approving economic and market activities, except in industries where regulation is necessary. It must stop interfering with market prices and transactions, and phase out regulations on land, labour, energy and mineral prices as well as on capital (interest rates and exchange rates). It must reform monopolies; privatise state-owned assets fairly and efficiently; and reform the tax system to fully reflect the goal of improving social welfare. Spending on public services, including social security, healthcare, education, housing and the environment must be increased.

要实现上述目标,政府必须废除各类经济和市场活动的审批程序(有必要实施监管的行业除外)。必须停止干预市场价格和交易,逐步废除对土地、劳动力、能源、矿物以及资本价格(利率和汇率)的管制。政府必须改革垄断企业;对国有资产实施公平有效的私有化;改革税收制度,以全面落实改善社会福利的目标。此外,必须增加在社会保障、医疗、教育、住房和环境等公共服务领域的开支。

The spread of economic crisis across the capitalist world has cast the future of the free market into doubt. Yet China’s story does not support the case against free-market institutions. On the contrary, the past 30 years’ success was due to market reform. To keep progressing, it must now transform its government’s economic role and continue reform into a free-market system. This is its unfinished mission.

经济危机在整个资本主义世界的蔓延,使人们对自由市场的未来命运产生了怀疑。然而,中国的故事并不能成为反对自由市场制度的理由。相反,中国过去30年的成功,是由于实行市场改革的缘故。要继续前进,中国现在必须转变政府在经济中所扮演的角色,继续朝着建设自由市场体制的方向推进改革。这是一项未竞的使命。

The writer is chairman of the Boyuan Foundation, and former chairman of China Merchants Group and China Merchants Bank

注:本文作者是博源基金会(Boyuan Foundation)理事长秦晓,此前曾担任中国招商局集团(China Merchants Group)和招商银行(China Merchants Bank)董事长。

译者/何黎

秦晓上一篇文章:

秦晓:中国崛起与全球“新均衡” 2011-05-30

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