登录×
电子邮件/用户名
密码
记住我

为您推荐

中美贸易战

Donald Trump’s Huawei ban could backfire badly
华为禁令将让美国自食其果

特朗普政府打压华为之举,不仅会割裂互联网世界,还可能削弱美国科技巨头、尤其是谷歌保持主导地位的能力。

At first sight, the recent US executive order blacklisting Chinese group Huawei looks like a classic Donald Trump move: brash, assertive, nationalistic. But look closer and it is clear that putting “America first” could ultimately mean the US finishes last.

乍一看,美国最近将中国企业华为(Huawei)列入黑名单的行政令,是典型的唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)干的事:傲慢、强硬、充满民族主义情绪。但仔细观察,显然,奉行“美国第一”(America First)政策最终可能意味着美国会是最末一名。

The US pushback against Huawei began with its 5G infrastructure business. Citing security concerns, the US made a concerted effort to convince western allies to drop the company from their 5G networks — with mixed success. The fight has now morphed into a broader ban that makes it near impossible for US companies — and any firm with US interests — to do business with any part of the Huawei empire. That includes Huawei’s up-and-coming consumer division, the world’s second-biggest smartphone producer.

美国对华为的抵制始于后者的5G基础设施业务。美国以安全方面的担忧为由四下煽动,试图说服西方盟友拒绝让华为参与本国的5G网络建设——结果成败参半。如今,打压行动已演变为一项更广泛的禁令,使美国企业——以及任何在美国拥有利益的公司——几乎不可能与华为企业帝国的任何部门开展业务。这其中包括华为风头正劲的消费者部门——全球第二大智能手机生产商。

For Huawei, it looks like a body blow. US groups such as Qualcomm must stop supplying it, but so must UK-based Arm, which has American ties. Then again, Huawei is the world’s biggest telecoms equipment manufacturer, and only draws a small, if important, part of its inputs from the US. The Chinese group could work round the ban, if it finds suppliers to replace the high-end mobile phone glass it gets from Corning.

对华为来说,这似乎是沉重一击。高通(Qualcomm)等美国公司必须停止向华为供货,总部位于英国、但与美国存在关联的ARM也必须停止与华为合作。但话说回来,华为是全球最大的电信设备制造商,其制造投入中只有(重要的)一小部分来自美国。如果华为能找到供应商替代由康宁公司(Corning)供应的高品质手机玻璃屏,这家中国公司就可能不受禁令影响。

Any short-term benefit to Huawei’s US competitors will be offset by hits to the company’s suppliers and customers as well as reduced impetus for innovation. Further out, this protectionist move will encourage Huawei and other Chinese groups to develop their own technology. Given how far they have already come, that might wind up doing further harm to US suppliers and their dominance of the market.

华为的美国竞争对手获得的任何短期好处,都将被该公司的供应商和客户遭受的冲击以及减弱的创新动力所抵消。更有甚者,这一保护主义举措将激励华为及其他中国企业开发自己的技术。考虑到中国企业在技术开发方面已经取得的成就,这可能进一步伤害美国供应商及其在市场上的主导地位。

However, devices such as phones do not stand alone. They are part of ecosystems, such as Google’s Android platform and related apps including Netflix, WhatsApp and YouTube. Devices, operating systems, apps, services and accessories come together to create a unified customer experience.

然而,手机等设备并非孤立的存在。它们是生态系统——如谷歌(Google)的Android平台,以及包括Netflix、WhatsApp、YouTube在内的相关应用——的一部分。设备、操作系统、应用程序、服务和附件集合在一起,才能创造同一标准的用户体验。

These global ecosystems are largely managed by American companies, and the executive order all but forbids Google, along with US-based Android developers, from working with Huawei phones. In other words, President Donald Trump has banished Huawei from the Google ecosystem.

此类全球生态系统主要由美国公司管理,而该行政令相当于实质上禁止谷歌以及位于美国的Android开发者与华为手机合作。换句话说,美国总统特朗普已将华为逐出了谷歌生态系统。

Initially, losing Google’s ecosystem partners could hurt Huawei even more than having its supply chain upended, as customers may stop using Huawei kit that can’t offer the complements they know and love. But in the short to medium term we can expect Huawei to start building its own competing ecosystem, while protecting its position in China and other national markets.

最初,失去谷歌的生态系统合作伙伴,对华为的打击可能超过其供应链被切断,因为用户可能会因为华为设备不支持他们熟悉和喜爱的服务而停止使用华为设备。但从中短期来看,我们可以预期华为将开始打造与谷歌生态系统相竞争的自有生态系统,同时保护其在中国及其他国家市场的地位。

This rival ecosystem might not overtake Google’s Android, but Huawei would be foolish not to try. The challenge is clear — and if anyone can overcome it, it’s the Huawei of 2019. If this had happened four years ago, the technology gap might have been too wide for the Chinese group to bridge. But today’s Huawei might rise to the dare and win — and that would transform the entire mobile sector.

华为的生态系统可能无法取代谷歌的Android系统,但华为除非是个傻子才会不尝试开发自己的生态系统。挑战无疑是存在的——如果有哪家公司能战胜这一挑战,那就是2019年的华为。如果这一幕发生在4年前,技术鸿沟对于当时的华为可能过于巨大、难以填补。但今天的华为或将迎难而上并赢得胜利——这将改变整个移动行业。

The Trump administration hasn’t just stepped up the trade war; it may have changed the future face of mobile technology. Without an external shock, Huawei could have profitably stuck with Google’s ecosystem. But now the gauntlet is down: Huawei and others have been pushed to challenge Google’s dominance to ensure their own survival.

特朗普政府不仅加剧了贸易战;它可能已经改变了移动技术的未来面貌。如果没受到外部冲击,华为本可以守着谷歌的生态系统不断获利。但现在挑战来了:华为等公司被迫为了自身的生存去挑战谷歌的主导地位。

Google understands the risk to its dominance. It has just asked for the Android operating system to be exempted from the export ban. But it may be too late. Even if the Trump administration agrees or it lifts the ban as part of a broader trade deal, the Rubicon has been crossed, and the risk to Huawei and other Chinese companies has become visible.

谷歌明白其主导地位面临的风险。它刚刚请求美国政府让Android操作系统豁免于出口禁令。但可能为时已晚。即便特朗普政府同意谷歌的请求,或者解除禁令——作为一项更广泛贸易协议的一部分,但卢比孔河已被跨过(凯撒跨过卢比孔河(Rubicon)被视为一道分水岭,比喻木已成舟、无法回头——译者注),华为以及其他中国企业面临的风险已清晰地展示在它们眼前。

These actions by the Trump administration have not only pushed us closer to a world split between a “Chinese-based” and “US-based” internet; they may also have dented the ability of America’s tech champions, especially Google, to maintain their dominance. This brash nationalistic trade policy may end up backfiring badly. The game is on.

特朗普政府的这些举动,不仅将我们推向了一个一半“基于中国”、一半“基于美国”的割裂的互联网世界;这些举动还可能削弱美国科技巨头保持主导地位的能力,尤其是谷歌。这种傲慢的民族主义贸易政策最终或将适得其反。大赛已经开始。

The writer is professor of strategy, innovation and entrepreneurship at London Business School

本文作者是伦敦商学院(London Business School)战略、创新和创业学教授

译者/谶龙

版权声明:本文版权归FT中文网所有,未经允许任何单位或个人不得转载,复制或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵权必究。

读者评论

FT中文网欢迎读者发表评论,部分评论会被选进《读者有话说》栏目。我们保留编辑与出版的权利。
用户名
密码
设置字号×
最小
较小
默认
较大
最大
分享×