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气候变化

Climate crisis risks a weather ‘vicious cycle’
极端天气可能引发“恶性循环”

极端天气导致去年能源需求增速达到自2010年以来最高水平,令人担心世界对供暖和制冷系统的依赖可能加剧碳排放危机。

Extreme weather drove the growth in energy demand last year to its highest level since 2010, triggering warnings of a “vicious cycle” fuelled by reliance on heating and cooling systems that could worsen the world’s carbon emissions crisis.

极端天气导致去年能源需求增长速度达到自2010年以来的最高水平,引发有关出现一个“恶性循环”的警告,即世界对供暖和制冷系统的依赖可能加剧碳排放危机。

Energy group BP said in its closely watched annual market review that energy consumption grew 2.9 per cent in 2018, led by China and the US, despite modest economic growth and strengthening oil and gas prices. The rise spurred a 2 per cent increase in carbon emissions, the fastest since 2011 and equivalent to increasing the global passenger car fleet by a third, or just under 400m.

能源集团英国石油(BP)在其备受关注的年度市场评估报告中表示,尽管经济增长不太强劲且石油和天然气价格上涨,但在中国和美国的领头下,2018年世界能源消费增长2.9%。这一增长刺激碳排放量增加2%,这是自2011年以来的最快增速,相当于将全球乘用车保有量增加三分之一,接近4亿辆。

“If there is a link between the growing levels of carbon in the atmosphere and the types of weather patterns observed in 2018, this would raise the possibility of a worrying vicious cycle,” Spencer Dale, BP’s chief economist, said in a speech to launch the report yesterday.

“如果大气中不断增加的碳含量与2018年观测到的天气模式类型之间存在联系,那将加大出现一个令人担忧的恶性循环的可能性,”BP首席经济学家戴思攀(Spencer Dale)昨日在报告发布会上发表讲话时表示。

The US saw an unusually high number of very hot or cold days last year, the most since the 1950s. China and Russia also saw greater fluctuations in temperature in 2018.

去年,美国出现了异常多的酷热或严寒日子,是自20世纪50年代以来最多的。中国和俄罗斯在2018年也出现了更大的温度波动。

Such patterns could cause stronger growth in energy demand and carbon emissions as households and businesses seek to offset the effects, Mr Dale warned.

戴思攀警告称,随着家庭和企业试图抵消这种影响,这类极端天气模式可能导致更强劲的能源需求和碳排放增长。

Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes a greenhouse effect, trapping heat and increasing average global temperatures. Changes in atmospheric currents linked to climate change are also thought to contribute to extreme cold weather snaps in some areas.

大气中的二氧化碳会引起温室效应,锁住热量,提升全球平均温度。与气候变化有关的大气气流变化,据信也加剧了某些地区的极端寒冷天气。

Power generation is the largest source of energy-related emissions, and as the world electrifies and demand for services such as air conditioning grows, the need to clean up the system will intensify.

发电是能源相关排放的最大来源,随着世界电气化以及对空调等服务的需求增长,清理整个体系的需要将会加大。

“It hasn’t been possible to decarbonise the power sector quickly enough to offset the growth in demand,” said Mr Dale, who was former chief economist at the Bank of England.

“迄今不能足够快地让电力行业脱碳以抵消需求增长,”曾经担任英国央行(Bank of England)首席经济学家的戴思攀表示。

Climate activists and investors have called on energy companies to take responsibility for their role in global warming, urging them to move into lower carbon businesses. BP points to the enduring reliance on fossil fuels and said it is aiming to increase output while ultimately reducing emissions.

气候变化活动人士和投资者呼吁能源公司对各自在全球变暖中的角色负责,敦促它们进入低碳业务。BP指出,世界对化石燃料的依赖将持续下去,并表示其目标是在增加产量的同时最终减少排放。

But the latest statistics show the global energy system is not able to easily break this link as would be necessary to meet the Paris climate agreement goals.

但最新的统计数据显示,全球能源体系无法轻易打破这一联系以实现巴黎气候协定的目标。

“There are grounds for us to be worried,” Mr Dale said, adding there is a “growing mismatch between hopes and reality”.

“我们有理由感到担心,”戴思攀表示。他补充说,“在希望与现实之间存在着越来越大的脱节”。

According to BP, oil, gas and coal accounted for nearly three-quarters of the growth in energy demand last year, their highest share in five years.

据BP介绍,石油、天然气和煤炭占去年新增能源需求的近四分之三,这一份额是五年来最高的。

Growth in renewable energy was less pronounced than in previous years but remained the fastest-growing source at 14.5 per cent.

可再生能源的增长不如前几年那么亮眼,但仍然是增长最快的能源来源,增速为14.5%。

Even as China and India have expanded into cleaner energy sources in recent years, the growth is not enough to meet demand and they are still building coal plants.

尽管中国和印度近年来加大力度使用更清洁的能源,但其增长不足以满足需求,两国仍在建设燃煤电厂。

Coal saw its second consecutive annual pick-up in demand last year, led by Asia, after three years of declining consumption.

在消费量下降三年后,煤炭需求去年在亚洲带领下连续第二年回升。

Natural gas demand expanded by 5.3 per cent, one of its strongest growth rates in more than 30 years, fuelled by a continuing switch to gas in China.

在中国持续转向天然气的推动下,天然气需求增长5.3%,这是30多年来最强劲的增速之一。

译者/和风

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