The Bank of England has flagged a one-in-three chance that the UK economy will shrink at the start of next year as Brexit uncertainty and global trade tension hit growth.
英国央行(Bank of England)认为英国经济有三分之一的几率在明年初出现萎缩，原因是英国退欧不确定性和全球贸易紧张影响经济增长。
Even without taking into account the rising possibility of a no-deal Brexit, the BoE cut its central forecast for growth this year and next.
It predicted output would rise 1.3 per cent in both 2019 and 2020 even if it were to cut interest rates, as markets expect. The BoE had forecast in May that output would grow by 1.5 per cent and 1.6 per cent respectively.
It added in its August inflation report there was a 33 per cent probability of negative growth in the first quarter of 2020 if interest rates remained unchanged — the highest chance of a contraction it has seen since the Brexit referendum in August 2016.
Mark Carney, the BoE governor, dismissed suggestions it was guilty of the “gloomster” attitude decried by Boris Johnson, the new prime minister. “It is clear the level of uncertainty is affecting business,” Mr Carney said. “It is also clear there has been a substantial shortfall in investment. It is beginning to become clear that the trade response to lower sterling has begun to fade.”
英国央行行长马克•卡尼(Mark Carney)驳斥了新首相鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)对于该行有“悲观失望者”态度之嫌的谴责。“显然，不确定性正在影响商业，”卡尼表示，“同样显而易见的是，投资出现了重大缺口。正在开始变得明显的是，英镑走低对贸易的刺激已经开始消退。”
The BoE’s central forecasts were premised on a smooth Brexit that would boost the economy. They show growth recovering to 2.3 per cent in 2021 and inflation overshooting its target, rising to 2.4 per cent on a three-year horizon.
The bank acknowledged this forecast overstated inflation because it builds in current exchange rates and market expectations that interest rates will fall to cushion the shock of a potential EU exit on October 31 without a withdrawal agreement. “In the event of a no-deal, no-transition Brexit, sterling would likely fall, the risk premiums on UK assets would rise and volatility would spike higher,” Mr Carney said.
Unlike the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, the BoE showed no signs of responding to the weakening outlook by cutting interest rates.
Instead, the MPC voted unanimously to hold rates at 0.75 per cent, and signalled that borrowing costs would eventually need to rise to keep inflation at its 2 per cent target — given an orderly Brexit and a recovery in global growth.
It also stuck to its position that interest rates could move in either direction in the event of a no-deal Brexit.