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中国经济

Leader_Latest US tariffs reflect a new cold war mentality
美国最新对华关税显露新冷战心态

FT社评:美中贸易战正进入未知水域。特朗普关于中国将会屈服的假设已被证明是一厢情愿。双方都需要重新评估各自立场。

Hopes for a breakthrough in the US-China trade talks in Shanghai last week were faint after a bout of pugnacious tweets from US president Donald Trump. His subsequent announcement of plans to impose 10 per cent tariffs on the remaining $300bn of Chinese imports from September 1 have extinguished them. This latest tranche of tariffs will cover consumer goods for the first time. With growing data pointing to the slowing of the global economy, Mr Trump’s efforts to isolate China from global trade are creating a ripple effect.

在美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)在Twitter上发表一系列好斗的推文之后,上周在上海举行的美中贸易谈判取得突破的希望变得渺茫。他随后宣布从9月1日起对剩余3000亿美元中国输美商品加征10%关税的计划,此举粉碎了贸易谈判取得突破的希望。最新加征的这部分关税将首次涵盖消费产品。随着越来越多的数据显示全球经济放缓,特朗普将中国从全球贸易体系中隔离的努力正在产生涟漪效应。

The trade war is moving into ever more uncharted waters. Mr Trump’s assumption that China would buckle has been shown to be little more than wishful thinking. Instead, Beijing has dug in its heels and removed the prospect of immediate concessions. Without a softening of stances, the trade war will only rumble on, dragging down the world economy in its wake.

贸易战正进入前所未有的未知水域。特朗普关于中国将会屈服的假设已被证明是一厢情愿。相反,北京方面拒不妥协,排除了立即让步的可能性。如果任何一方都不放软身段,这场贸易战只会继续下去,把世界经济也拖下水。

Mr Trump’s latest tariffs speak to a breakdown of trust between the sparring powers. Only a few months ago, there had been hopes that a trade deal was within sight, partly based on the decent working relationship between Mr Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping.

特朗普的最新关税举措表明,两个争吵不休的大国之间的信任已经崩溃。就在几个月前,人们还对双方有望达成贸易协议抱以期待,这在一定程度上是基于特朗普与中国国家主席习近平之间不错的工作关系。

But this is no Manhattan real estate negotiation. It now involves a fundamental reappraisal of the relationship between an incumbent superpower and a rising rival.

但这不是曼哈顿的一场房地产谈判。它现在涉及对老牌超级大国与正在崛起的对手之间的关系作出根本性的重新评估。

Both Mr Trump and Mr Xi have had less political room for manoeuvre as their differences have become more stark. Mr Trump finds himself outflanked by the Democrats on trade. On Nafta, his aggressive America First approach led to some concessions within a rebranded US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. China is a problem of a different order. With presidential elections just over a year away, Mr Trump sees Democrats doubling down on his protectionist rhetoric. In China, Mr Xi faces down an increasingly ardent nationalism which at times he has been happy to stoke. Sometimes cast as China’s strongest leader since Mao, Mr Xi may not be quite so immune to challenge as observers may think.

随着双方的分歧日益明显,特朗普和习近平在政治方面的回旋余地都更少了。特朗普发现,在贸易问题上,自己已被民主党人搞得被动。在《北美自由贸易协定》(NAFTA)上,他那咄咄逼人的“美国优先”策略争取到了一些让步,产生了重新命名的《美墨加协定》(USMCA)。中国是一个不同数量级的问题。距离美国总统大选只有一年多时间之际,特朗普看到民主党人发表比他更为激进的保护主义言论。在中国,习近平面临日益高涨的民族主义情绪,而他有时很乐意助长这种情绪。有时被标榜为毛泽东之后最强势中国领导人的习近平,对挑战的免疫力可能没有观察人士所认为的那么大。

The terms of debate about China as a rising power has taken a turn for the worse in the US. There is loose talk of a new cold war, focused on the arms race in areas such as artificial intelligence. This winner-takes-all approach is dangerous. Cooler heads should be thinking about new rules of the road on cyber security and cyber-arms.

在美国,围绕中国作为一个正在崛起的大国的辩论的条件已出现恶化。关于新冷战的说法很多,焦点是人工智能等领域的军备竞赛。这种赢者通吃的态度是危险的。头脑更为冷静的人士应该考虑有关网络安全和网络武器的新的“道路交通规则”。

Those in Beijing who think that they can simply wait for Mr Trump to leave office underestimate how deep these sentiments run in the business community as well as policymakers. Mr Trump, whether wittingly or not, has unleashed forces he will struggle to control.

在北京,那些认为只要等特朗普卸任就万事大吉的人士,低估了这种情绪在商界和政策制定者心中的深度。无论是有意还是无意,特朗普已释放出他自己也将难以控制的力量。

There may be a temptation in Washington to believe that the US economy will ultimately prevail in the tariff war. This may be true in the medium term, but the cost will be high. Separating China from trade supply chains will hurt Beijing but splinter technology. The domestic labour market, which added 164,000 jobs in July may be resilient, with the unemployment rate falling to a 49-year low in April. But the woes of the US manufacturing sector, which has now contracted for two consecutive quarters, are indisputable.

华盛顿可能有人忍不住认为,美国经济最终将在关税战中胜出。从中期来看,这可能是正确的,但代价将会很高。将中国从贸易供应链中切割出来,将会伤害北京方面,但也会导致技术割裂。7月份新增16.4万个就业岗位、4月份失业率降至49年低点的美国国内劳动力市场可能具有韧性。但美国制造业的困境——迄今已连续两个季度萎缩——是不争的事实。

Returning to a status quo ante bellum looks difficult. Both sides need to re-evaluate their positions. Mr Trump should modify his aggressive unilateralism and work with others to pressure China. Mr Xi should commit to limited concessions around the treatment of foreign investors and intellectual property rights. Movement is vital. The hardening of positions will lead to fallout across the world.

重新回到贸易战之前的现状看起来很难。双方都需要重新评估各自的立场。特朗普应该调整其咄咄逼人的单边主义,与其他经济体合作向中国施压。习近平应该承诺在对待外国投资者和知识产权方面做出有限让步。有所作为至关重要。双方立场都转向强硬,将在世界各地引发冲击波。

译者/何黎

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