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German industrial output fall exacerbates fears of recession
德国工业产出下降 加剧衰退担忧

6月数据环比下降1.5%,降幅超出预期。汽车业危机加上中美贸易战,使德国从欧元区经济的火车头转变为表现最差的成员之一。

Industrial production in Germany dropped by a larger-than-expected 1.5 per cent month on month in June, compounding fears that Europe’s largest economy could be heading for its first recession in more than six years.

德国工业产出6月环比下降1.5%,降幅超出预期,加剧了人们对欧洲最大经济体可能正在滑向六年多来首次衰退的担忧。

Analysts polled by Reuters had estimated output would fall 0.4 per cent during the month compared with May. The fall meant that industrial production was 5.2 per cent lower than a year ago, Germany’s statistics office said.

路透社(Reuters)调查的分析师们此前估计,与5月相比,6月工业产出将下降0.4%。德国联邦统计局表示,这一下降意味着工业产出比一年前低5.2%。

Carsten Brzeski, ING’s chief economist for Germany, characterised the figures as “devastating, with no silver lining”.

荷兰国际集团(ING)首席德国经济学家卡斯滕•布尔泽斯基(Carsten Brzeski)将这些数字描述为“灾难性,看不到任何光明的一面”。

After a brief slowdown last year, the German economy rebounded in the first three months of 2019. But many economists, including those at the Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, are predicting that next week’s GDP figures will show that the economy shrank again in the three months to June.

在去年短暂放缓之后,德国经济曾在2019年头三个月出现反弹。但许多经济学家——包括德国央行(Bundesbank)的经济学家们——预测,下周的国内生产总值(GDP)数字将显示德国经济在截至6月的三个月里再次萎缩。

Mr Brzeski said: “We should prepare for contraction in the German economy in the second quarter, unless exports bring an unexpected surprise on Friday.”

布尔泽斯基表示:“我们要准备好迎接德国经济在第二季度出现萎缩——除非周五公布的出口数据带来惊喜。”

A crisis in the carmaking industry and an intensifying trade war between the US and China have turned Germany from the powerhouse of the eurozone economy to one of its weakest performing members.

汽车制造业的危机,加上美中之间日益激烈的贸易战,已经使德国从欧元区经济的火车头转变为表现最差的成员之一。

The manufacturing sector, historically the engine of German growth, has become its main weakness as the car industry continues to grapple with the shift away from diesel cars to new electric models and exporters face a slowdown in orders from China.

传统上是德国增长引擎的制造业,已经成为其主要弱点。汽车业继续艰难应对从柴油车转向新的电动车型的趋势,而出口商面临中国订单的放缓。

The slowdown in industrial production came across the board, including intermediate goods, capital goods, energy and consumer goods. The only area that grew was construction, but only by a meagre 0.3 per cent after two months of decline.

工业产出的放缓是全面的,包括中间产品、资本货物、能源和消费产品。唯一实现增长的领域是建筑业,但该行业在经历两个月的下降后仅增长区区0.3%。

“The crisis in the automotive sector is continuing unabated,” said Ralph Solveen, deputy head of economic research at Commerzbank. “The main reason for this weakness is now likely to be significantly weaker foreign demand. This all points to the fact that manufacturing will remain the weak spot of the German economy.”

“汽车业的危机仍在继续,没有缓解迹象,”德国商业银行(Commerzbank)经济研究部副主管拉尔夫•索尔文(Ralph Solveen)表示。“这种疲软的主要原因现在很可能是外国需求显著减弱。这一切都指向一个事实,即制造业仍将是德国经济的薄弱环节。”

Wednesday’s figures came a day after factory orders rose unexpectedly, driven by an increase in demand from countries outside the eurozone. While those figures may have offered a glimmer of hope for Europe’s economic powerhouse, analysts pointed out that they were buoyed by a few exceptionally large orders and new orders have dropped by an average of 0.7 per cent every month this year.

周三数据出炉之际,一天前公布的工厂订单数据意外上升,其推动因素是来自欧元区以外国家的需求增长。尽管这些数据可能为欧洲头号经济强国提供了一线希望,但分析师们指出,它们受到几份异常大额订单的提振,今年以来新订单平均每月下降0.7%。

June’s industrial production decline “kills off any hopes that the strong orders data published yesterday marked the beginning of a recovery,” said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics. “Business surveys uniformly point to a further contraction in July, so things look set to get worse rather than better.”

凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席欧洲经济学家安德鲁•肯宁汉姆(Andrew Kenningham)表示,6月工业产出下滑“粉碎了这样的希望,即昨日公布的强劲订单数据标志着一场复苏的开端……商业调查一致表明,7月会出现进一步萎缩,因此情况看起来会变得更糟,而不是更好。”

The Ifo institute, a German think-tank, added to the gloom saying on Wednesday that its latest business survey for last month found sentiment had deteriorated markedly from minus 2.1 in June to minus 5.7 in July — its lowest level for almost seven years — indicating that pessimists far outweigh optimists in German industry. “More and more companies are announcing that they intend to cut back their production in the coming quarter,” said Robert Lehmann, an Ifo economic analyst.

令人更加沮丧的是,德国智库Ifo研究所周三表示,上月的最新商业调查结果显示,情绪已明显恶化,从6月的负2.1降至7月的负5.7——这是近7年来的最低水平——说明在德国工业界,悲观主义者远远多于乐观主义者。“越来越多的企业宣布他们打算在下一季度削减产量,”Ifo经济分析师罗伯特•莱曼(Robert Lehmann)表示。

Other data published this week included a downward revision in services figures that showed the sector grew at a slower rate in July than previously thought, fuelling economists’ fears that the downturn in Germany’s export-focused manufacturing industry is spreading to its domestic-focused services sector.

本周公布的其他数据包括服务数据向下修正,显示7月该行业增速低于此前测算,这加剧了经济学家们的担心,即德国面向出口的制造业的低迷,正在蔓延至面向国内的服务业。

译者/和风

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