The US and Iran have stepped back from the brink — for now. A week ago, Iranian missile strikes from within its own territory on bases housing US troops in Iraq would have seemed barely thinkable. In the event, what amounted to a relatively restrained response to the US assassination of Iran’s top general Qassem Soleimani — and, crucially, the lack of American casualties — provided an opening for Donald Trump to reduce tensions. On Wednesday, while slapping tougher sanctions on Iran and insisting the US was still mulling a counter-response, the US president appeared to seize that opening. Yet even if outright war has been avoided, the road ahead remains hazardous.
就眼下来说，美国和伊朗从战争边缘各退了一步。伊朗从自己领土内发射导弹攻击美军驻伊拉克基地，这在一周前还几乎是不可想象的。但就美国暗杀伊朗高级将领卡西姆•苏莱曼尼(Qassem Soleimani)而言，伊朗作出这样的回应已经是相对克制了，关键是没有造成美国人员伤亡，这给了唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)缓和紧张局势的机会。特朗普也确实在周三抓住了这个机会，虽然他宣布要对伊朗实施更严厉的制裁，并坚称美国仍在考虑如何回击。然而，尽管全面开战是避免了，前方道路却依然危险重重。
Iran’s response to the US attack underlines its capacity for careful calculation. Direct action by the Iranian military against US interests — rather than through proxies abroad — certainly marked a significant escalation. It was, at the same time, calibrated to meet the need for Tehran to answer the Soleimani killing while lessening the risk of a devastating American response.
伊朗针对美国暗杀行动的回应，凸显出其精打细算的本事。伊朗军方直接对美国利益采取行动——而不是通过海外代理人——无疑标志着事态的重大升级。另一方面，此次行动又拿捏好了分寸，既照顾到了德黑兰方面对苏莱曼尼被杀作出回应的需要，也降低了美国作出毁灭性反击的风险。
Iranian leaders could portray it to their public as bold and righteous vengeance. Yet whatever the truth of suggestions that Iran deliberately sought to avoid casualties, such an attack was foreseeable — which may explain why US troops were apparently in their bunkers. The lack of harm to US personnel lessened the need for the US to strike back hard. Tehran’s messaging, too, was shrewd. By tweeting that Iran “took and concluded” proportionate action, foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif signalled Tehran did not seek a broader conflict.
面对本国民众，伊朗领导人可以将此举描述为果敢而正义的复仇。不过，无论有关伊朗故意避免造成美军伤亡的说法是真是假，这样的导弹袭击是可以预见的——这或许可以解释为什么当时美军士兵显然都在掩体内。美国没有遭受人员伤亡，也就不太有必要狠狠反击回去。德黑兰方面发出的信息也很有心机。伊朗外交部长穆罕默德•贾瓦德•扎里夫(Mohammad Javad Zarif)发推文表示，伊朗“采取并结束了”适当的行动，透露出德黑兰无意令冲突进一步扩大。
