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Japan’s currency has run up its biggest monthly gain against the dollar this year, reflecting growing expectations that the Bank of Japan will be forced to tighten monetary policy just as the US Federal Reserve is signalling rate cuts.
日元兑美元汇率创下今年以来最大单月涨幅，反映出在美联储(Fed)发出降息信号之际，人们对于日本央行(Bank of Japan)将被迫收紧货币政策的预期越来越高。
The yen has climbed 7 per cent against the dollar since the middle of November to trade at ¥141.59, its strongest level since July, including a 4.4 per cent rise this month.
自11月中旬以来，日元兑美元汇率已攀升7%，至1美元兑141.59日元，为7月以来的最高水平，其中本月的涨幅为4.4%。
“It’s been a big move by any standard,” said Chris Turner, head of global markets at ING. “It started with the whole turn in the dollar when the market was turning more dovish on the Fed and then there were stories suggesting the Bank of Japan was ready to lift interest rates.”
荷兰国际集团(ING)全球市场主管克里斯•特纳(Chris Turner)表示：“无论以何种标准衡量，这都是一次重大举措。这始于美元的全面转向，那时市场对美联储的态度变得更加鸽派，然后有传言称，日本央行准备加息。”
The move has helped ease the pressure from rising import prices, which have driven up living costs for consumers this year, but is a headwind for Japanese exporters.
今年以来，进口价格上涨推高了消费者的生活成本。此举有助于缓解进口价格上涨带来的压力，但对日本出口商来说却是一个不利因素。
The yen was turbocharged this week after the Federal Reserve surprised markets by signalling it would cut interest rates next year. BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda met Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida last week and told the country’s parliament that managing monetary policy “will become even more challenging from the year-end and heading into next year”.
上周，在美联储出人意料地暗示将于明年降息后，日元汇率大幅上涨。日本央行行长植田和男(Kazuo Ueda)近日会见了日本首相岸田文雄(Fumio Kishida)，并向日本议会表示，对货币政策的管理“从今年年底到明年将变得更具挑战性”。
However, the BoJ is widely expected to keep interest rates at minus 0.1 per cent next week at its final monetary policy meeting of the year. Traders in swaps markets are betting that the bank will scrap its negative interest rate in April or June next year.
然而，市场普遍预计，在本周举行的今年最后一次货币政策会议上，日本央行将会把利率维持在-0.1%的水平。掉期市场的交易员押注日本央行将在明年4月或6月取消负利率。
“There is ample evidence now that inflation pressures are embedding in the Japanese economy and that Japan’s negative interest rate policy is inconsistent with the economic reality,” said Salman Ahmed, global head of macro at Fidelity International.
富达国际(Fidelity International)宏观经济全球主管萨尔曼•艾哈迈德(Salman Ahmed)表示：“目前有充分证据表明，通胀压力正深入日本经济，日本的负利率政策与经济现实不符。”
The rapid decline of US bond yields eases the upward pressure on Japanese yields as the BoJ gradually unwinds its unconventional policy of holding down its benchmark borrowing costs. The spread — or gap — between 10-year US and Japanese government bond yields has narrowed to 3.2 percentage points, down from more than 4 percentage points in October.
随着日本央行逐渐放松其压低基准借贷成本的非常规政策，美国债券收益率的迅速下跌缓解了日本债券收益率的上行压力。10年期美国和日本国债收益率之差（或称利差）已收窄至3.2个百分点，低于10月份的逾4个百分点。
Michael Metcalfe, head of global market strategy at State Street, custodian to $40tn of assets, said fund managers had been adding to their yen positions over the past fortnight on speculation that the BoJ will soon tighten policy.
管理着40万亿美元资产的道富银行(State Street)的全球市场策略主管迈克尔•梅特卡夫(Michael Metcalfe)表示，过去两周，由于市场猜测日本央行将很快收紧政策，基金经理一直在增持日元头寸。
“The yen offers an attractive combination of valuation and the possibility of monetary policy becoming more, not less, supportive,” Metcalfe said, adding that the dollar was 40 per cent overvalued compared with the yen based on measures of purchasing power parity.
梅特卡夫表示：“日元提供了一种颇具吸引力的估值组合，同时货币政策的支持力度有可能加大而不是减弱。”他补充称，以购买力平价衡量，美元兑日元被高估了40%。
Some currency strategists believe the yen will continue to strengthen next year, with the gap between US and Japanese interest rates expected to narrow. Many investors have been using the yen to fund so-called carry trades whereby they would borrow the yen and lend in dollars.
一些外汇策略师认为，日元明年将继续走强，美国和日本的利率差距预计将缩小。许多投资者一直在用日元进行所谓的套息交易，即借入日元，借出美元。
“The possibility that the Fed could ease policy in 2024 while the Bank of Japan begins to tighten puts the dollar-yen carry trade under pressure,” said Erik Norland, senior economist at CME Group.
芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME Group)高级经济学家埃里克•诺兰德(Erik Norland)表示：“美联储可能在2024年放松政策，而日本央行开始收紧货币政策，这一可能性使美元与日元间的套息交易面临压力。”
“In the past, the yen has been subject to rapid upward moves when carry trades liquidate.”
诺兰德称：“过去，当套利交易平仓时，日元会呈现快速上扬走势。”
