三、长寿时代对社会经济的影响
C. The socio-economic impact of the age of longevity
长寿时代下，社会经济发展面临挑战和机遇。根据柯布-道格拉斯生产函数，经济增长主要受劳动力、资本和科技进步的影响。在长寿时代上述变量都会发生显著变化，进而对宏观经济产生深远影响。一些研究认为，老龄人口比例增加将导致经济增长放缓，或因为劳动力供给不足，或因为社会的储蓄率降低造成资本形成率低，或因为老龄化社会创新力不足等（陆旸、蔡昉，2014；马学礼、陈志恒，2014；周助平、刘海斌，2016）。长寿时代的社会还面临财富不平等加剧的挑战，低收入群体的境况在长寿时代可能进一步恶化，他们的生存需求和健康需求对社会保障提出更高要求，公共财政也面临更大压力。
The age of longevity will pose challenges and opportunities for socio-economic development. According to the Cobb-Douglas production function, economic growth is mainly determined by labour, capital and technological progress. In the age of longevity, these variables will change significantly, and this will have a profound impact on the macro-economy. Some studies claim that an increase in the proportion of the elderly population will lead to a slowdown in economic growth, either because of an insufficient labour supply, or because of a reduction in the overall savings rate, resulting in a low capital formation rate, or because of the lack of innovation in an ageing society, amongst others (Lu Yang and Cai Fang, 2014; Ma Xueli and Chen Zhiheng, 2014; Zhou Zhuping and Liu Haibin, 2016). Society in the age of longevity will also face the challenge of increasing wealth inequality. The situatios of low-income groups may further worsen in the age of longevity, and their survival and health needs will increase the demands placed on social security, while also placing public finances under increased pressure.
但另一方面，当人们活得更长、更健康，并继续积极参与经济活动，长寿也将成为社会的财富来源。最新研究表明长寿时代未必会出现经济增速下行，主要原因是自动化技术的普及应用有效替代了下降的劳动力（Acemoglu and Restrepo，2017）。长寿正在定义未来，给经济和社会带来新的供给和需求，为各个年龄段的人提供创新、就业和经济增长的新机会。沃顿商学院人力资源中心主任彼得·卡普利（Peter Cappelli）主持的美国老年学协会的《长寿经济学》课题提出社会和经济应最大限度地利用长寿，消除年龄歧视，促进长寿经济的发展。
On the other hand, however, as people live longer, more healthily, and continue to actively participate in economic activity, longevity will also become a source of wealth for society. The latest research indicates that the age of longevity may not necessarily translate to a drop in the economic growth rate, mainly because the widespread application of automated technologies will have effectively replaced the declining labour force (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2017). Longevity is currently defining our future, bringing new supply and demand to the economy and society, and providing new opportunities for innovation, employment and economic growth to people of all ages. The American Gerontological Association’s Longevity Economics project, chaired by Peter Cappelli, director of the Centre for Human Resources at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, proposed that society and the economy should maximise the use of longevity, eliminate age discrimination, and promote the development of a longevity economy.
（一）长寿时代下社会经济面临的挑战
(a) The challenges facing society and the economy in the age of longevity
1.长寿时代劳动力人口供给降低，冲击传统的工业化组织形态
1. The labour supply will be reduced in the age of longevity, impacting traditional labour organisation patterns
劳动力是经济增长的核心因素之一。一方面，劳动力作为主要的生产要素，其数量增长可以推动生产增长；另一方面，劳动力人口也可以为社会提供广泛的终端需求，拉动相关产业的发展（施锦芳，2015）。然而，进入长寿时代后，出生率明显下降，年轻人口占比乃至绝对数量减少，新增劳动力人口规模下滑，因此对经济发展将产生负面影响。
The labour force is a core factor in economic growth. On the one hand, the labour force is a main input of production, and its numerical growth can drive production growth, while on the other, the working age population can also provide a wide range of end-user needs for society, and stimulate the development of associated industries (Shi Jingfang, 2015). However, entering the age of longevity has led to a significant drop in the birth rate, concomitantly bringing about a reduction in the young population, both in terms of proportion and even absolute numbers, while the size of the new labour population has also declined, which will have a negative impact on economic development.
劳动力的长周期下滑可能对人类传统的工业化组织形态造成冲击。工业化时代，生产组织形式从家庭逐渐演化到工厂和企业，生产的聚集性明显提升。劳动力人口大量聚集带动工业化和城镇化。同时，社会化大生产促进了社会分工，劳动效率持续提升，劳动力需求持续上涨，产出水平持续提高。当人类仍处于高生育率阶段，劳动力供给源源不断，可以满足生产需要。同时劳动力人口占比较高还会形成高储蓄和高投资的局面，称为第一次人口红利。历史上看，凡是成功实现工业化的国家，无论是英国、美国还是日本以及改革开放以来的中国，大都享受了第一次人口红利，经济也获得了高速发展。
The long-term decline of the labour force may have an impact on the traditional industrial organisation patterns in human society. In the industrialised era, production organisation forms gradually evolved from the family into factories and companies, significantly improving the concentration of production. This massive concentration of the labour force was the driving force behind industrialisation and urbanisation. At the same time, large-scale social production encouraged the social division of labour, and labour efficiency has continued to rise, demand for labour has continued to expand, and output levels have continued to climb. When mankind was still at the high-fertility stage, there was a continuous supply of labour to satisfy production needs. At the same time, the relatively high working-age proportion of the population also resulted in high levels of savings and investment, creating the so-called first demographic dividend. Historically speaking, every country which has successfully achieved industrialisation, be it the United Kingdom, United States, Japan or China following opening up and liberalisation, has enjoyed this first demographic dividend, and their economies have developed at a rapid pace.
长寿时代面临劳动力供给的挑战。由于出生率不断下降，年轻劳动力数量将在长周期出现萎缩，部分工厂和企业将面临无人可用的局面。这一趋势目前在日本已经有所体现。日本民间企业信誉调查机构——东京商工调查所数据显示，2019年日本因“人手不足”而负债1000万日元以上并因此破产的企业数量达426家，比上一年增加10%，是该因素被纳入统计以来数量最多的一年。可用劳动力的减少将会对人类的生产产生深远影响，一方面将迫使传统工业企业加速智能化、自动化转型，从而降低生产活动对劳动力的需求。另一方面，长期的劳动力短缺也可能会对工业化的组织形式产生冲击。由于技术进步将降低生产对人力资源的依赖，人类有可能演化出新的组织和生产形式，以应对新增劳动力资源下降带来的挑战，我们将在后面的部分予以讨论。
The labour supply challenges to be faced in the age of longevity. The declining birth rate means that the young labour force will shrink over the longer term, and certain factories and companies will face skills shortages. This trend is already apparent in Japan. According to data from Tokyo Shoko Research, a Japanese credit research agency for private companies, a total of 426 companies in the country recorded losses of more than JPY10 million and were bankrupted because of “labour shortages”, a year-on-year increase of 10%, the highest since this figure was first included in the statistics. The reduction in available labour will have a profound impact on human production. On the one hand, this will force traditional industrial companies to accelerate their shift to smart operations and transformation, thereby reducing the need for labour in production activities. On the other hand, long-term labour shortages may also have an impact on the forms of industrialised organisation. Because technological progress will reduce the reliance of production on human resources, mankind may evolve new forms of organisation and production in order to cope with the challenges posed by the reduction in new labour resources, and we will discuss this in the following sections.
2.长寿时代储蓄率降低，导致资本形成率下降
2. Decreased savings rates in the age of longevity, leading to a drop in the capital formation rate
传统经济学理论认为，随着老龄人口的数量不断上升，消费率上升，储蓄率下降，对资本形成率产生负面影响。有研究指出，随着老龄人口占比增加和年轻人口占比减少，人口抚养比将会上升，导致抚养支出增加、储蓄率下降（陆旸、蔡昉，2014），而储蓄率下降则会导致资本形成率（资本形成占GDP的比重）降低。另有研究也表明了类似观点：人口老龄化最终会导致生产性人口相对乃至绝对减少，消费性人口相对乃至绝对增加（李军、刘生龙，2017）。因此，一个社会的老龄人口比重越高，意味着其分享产出成果的比例越高，可用于生产投资的产出比例相对较小，宏观上就会导致国民储蓄率下降、消费率上升，不利于资本积累。在全球角度看，美联储前主席格林斯潘甚至提出人口老龄化使全球投资资源萎缩⑥。
Traditional economic theory believes that as the elderly continue to increase in number, the consumption rate rises, the savings rate drops, and this has a negative impact on the capital formation rate. Certain studies note that as the elderly proportion of the population increases and the younger proportion get smaller, the population dependency ratio will increase, leading to an increase in dependency expenditure and a drop in the savings rate (Lu Yan and Cai Fang, 2014), while a decline in the savings rate will in turn lead to a drop in the capital formation rate (the ratio of capital formation to GDP). Other studies also highlight a similar view: an ageing population will eventually lead to a relative or even absolute decline in the working-age population, and a relative or even absolute increase in the consumer population (Li Jun and Liu Shenglong, 2017). Therefore, the higher the elderly proportion of the population in a society, the higher the proportion of its consumed output. The proportion of output which can be used for investing in production is therefore relatively smaller, which will lead to a decline in the national savings rate and an increase in the consumption rate at the macro level, which is not conducive to capital accumulation. From a global perspective, former US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has even proposed that the elderly population will shrink global investment resources (6).
与之相应，第二次人口红利理论认为，人口结构变化过程中，人力资本回报水平变高，个体会调整消费和储蓄行为，通过个人资产配置和延长劳动力供给年限等方式应对未来的不确定性，促使社会财富积累增加。更进一步，老龄人口占比增加将导致社会劳动力下降，因此资本/劳动比率上升可以推动经济增长，该过程将对冲社会整体储蓄率下降的效果。然而第二次人口红利能否真正释放，仍然依赖许多外部性和制度性因素。一方面，老年人从生产者变成纯粹的消费者，不断消耗其资本积累。减缓老年人的资本消耗则要求社会建立起更全面、更包容的养老制度和服务体系。另一方面，人均资本的提升要转化为经济增长需要依赖外部的制度性建设，尤其是资本市场的建设。
Correspondingly, the second demographic dividend theory believes that as part of the process of demographic change, the return on human capital will increase, while individuals will adjust their consumption and savings behaviour, and respond to future uncertainty through the accumulation of personal assets and their extended presence in the labour force, inter alia, promoting the increased accumulation of social wealth. Furthermore, the increase in the elderly proportion of the population will lead to a decline in the labour force. It is therefore possible for an increase in the capital/labour ratio to drive economic growth, a process which will hedge against a decline in the overall social savings rate. However, the actual triggering of the second demographic dividend is still reliant on a large number of external and institutional factors. On the one hand, as the elderly change from producers into pure consumers, they are constantly consuming their accumulated capital. Reducing capital consumption by the elderly requires that society establish a more comprehensive and inclusive pension and services system. On the other hand, the transformation of the increased per capita capital into economic growth is dependent on the construction of external institutions, and that of capital markets in particular.
3.长寿时代劳动力老化，影响社会创新效率
3. The ageing of the labour force in the age of longevity will impact the efficiency of innovation
长寿时代面临整个社会创新效率的挑战。人类的创新活动并非平均分布在整个生命周期中。研究表明，个人创新能力随着年龄的增长而呈倒“U”型曲线，老年人的学习能力、创新能力、开拓进取能力不如年轻人，劳动力老化将对劳动生产率提高和科技创新动力提升带来不利影响（马学礼、陈志恒，2014）。此外，长寿时代将延长人类的工作年限，年长者处于组织内重要位置的时长也会相应增加，年轻人升迁难度加大，有可能限制创新才能和创新意愿的发展。综上，长寿时代可能会对社会整体创新效率有负面影响。
The age of longevity faces the challenge of innovation and efficiency across society as a whole. Man’s innovation activity is unevenly distributed across their entire life cycle. Studies have shown that personal capacity for innovation forms an inverted “U” curve with age. Older people do not have the same ability to learn, to innovate and to strike out on their own as their younger counterparts. The ageing of the labour force will have an adverse impact on the increase in labour productivity and the drive towards scientific and technological innovation (Ma Xueli, Chen Zhiheng, 2014). In addition, the age of longevity will extend the working lives of human beings, and the length of time that the elderly hold important positions in an organisation will also increase correspondingly. It will become increasingly difficult for the young to achieve promotion, which may limit the development of innovative talent and the willingness to innovate. In summary, the age of longevity may have a negative impact on overall social innovation efficiency.
4.长寿时代社会不平等程度加深
4. The rising inequality in the age of longevity
长寿时代的到来本身也可能加剧财富的不平等。为了研究其作用机制，可将社会人口分为年轻人口和老龄人口两组。从组内角度看，长寿时代可能导致收入和消费的差异随时间延长不断扩大。同龄人之间消费和收入的差异将随着年龄的增长而扩大，因为个体的收入和消费受自身教育、职业、健康状况、家庭背景等因素的影响，而这些差异会随着时间的推移不断放大（Deaton and Paxon，1997；Chen et al.，2017）。例如，脑体劳动者收入的剪刀差长期存在。近年来由于劳动成本的上升，上述情况有所缓解。但脑力劳动者可以通过经验积累、不断学习等方式降低人力资本下降速度，而体力劳动者的劳动能力直接受其身体健康状况影响，随着年龄增大，丧失劳动能力的风险不断升高，因此长期看二者的收入差距有可能拉大。中国1996~2009年的收入和消费数据显示，人口老龄化确实会加剧组内收入不平等（董志强等，2012）。
The onset of the age of longevity itself may also exacerbate wealth inequality. In order to understand how this works, let’s divide the population into two groups: the younger and older populations. When viewed from a group perspective, the age of longevity may cause differences in income and consumption to expand continuously over time. Differences in consumption and income among people of the same age will widen with age, because individual income and consumption are all affected by an individual’s education, profession, state of health, family background and other factors, and these differences will continue to change and magnify over time (Deaton and Paxon, 1997; Chen et al., 2017). For example, the scissor gap in the incomes of white-collar workers is by no means a new phenomenon, although rising labour costs have led to a certain easing of this situation in recent years. However, white-collar workers are able to reduce their rate of decline in human capital through their accumulated experience, and ongoing learning, etc. By contrast, the ability to work of blue-collar workers is influenced by their own state of health. As they get older, the risk that they will lose their ability to work continues to increase, such that over the longer term, the income gap between the two may widen. China’s income and consumption data for the 1996-2009 period shows that the elderly population will indeed exacerbate inequalities in income within the group (Dong Zhiqiang et al., 2012).
从组间角度看，长寿时代可能拉大年轻人口和老龄人口的收入差距。在现行的工作模式和退休制度下，长寿时代将会产生更多不直接参与生产的老龄人口，这部分人口不参加第一次分配，而主要参与第二次分配。然而，由于社会建构的因素影响，老年人在第二次分配中也不占据主导地位，因此老龄人口的经济状况主要取决于年轻时的财富积累。随着老龄人口的不断增长，参与社会生产的年轻人和不参与社会生产的老年人之间的财富差距将不断拉大，进而导致社会不平等程度加深。
From an inter-group perspective, the age of longevity may widen the income gap between the younger and older populations. Under the current working model and retirement system, the age of longevity will produce more elderly people who no longer participate directly in production. This segment of the population does not participate in primary distribution, but instead mainly participates in secondary distribution. However, because of the influence of social-constructed factors, the elderly similarly fail to occupy any dominant position in secondary distribution, meaning that the economic status of the elderly population is mainly determined by their accumulation of wealth when they are young. As the elderly population continues to grow, the wealth gap between the young, who participate in social production, and the elderly, who do not, will continue to widen, leading to further social inequality.
与收入不平等伴生的是健康不平等问题。低收入群体由于缺乏营养、无法有效获取医疗资源等多重因素导致健康状况相对更差。研究指出，中国老龄人口的健康不平等也日益凸显（杜本峰、王旋，2013）。综上所述，长寿时代一部分老龄弱势群体可能会面临贫病交加的境况，他们需要社会更多关注和支持，同时也对现行的福利制度和公共财政提出更高要求。
Hand in hand with income inequality comes the issue of health inequality. The relatively poor state of health of low-income groups is attributable to factors including a lack of nutrition, and an inability to effectively access medical resources, inter alia. Studies have shown that health inequalities in China’s elderly population are increasingly significant (Du Benfeng and Wang Xuan, 2013). In summary, certain elderly and vulnerable groups may be faced with poverty and disease in the age of longevity. They must receive greater attention and support from society at large, while a higher standard must at the same time also be established for the current welfare system and public finances.
（二）长寿时代下社会经济发展的机遇
(b) Opportunities for socio-economic development in the age of longevity
1.长寿时代技术进步对劳动力的替代率提升
1. Technological progress in the age of longevity is increasing the labour force replacement rate
在前文的分析中，我们从理论层面列举了老龄人口占比增加对经济增长可能产生的一些负面影响。但是，针对OECD国家1960年至2011年的实证研究显示，人均GDP的变化和老龄人口占比的关系并不显著（Gehringer and Prettner，2017）。
In the previous analysis, we listed some of the negative effects of the elderly proportion of the population in economic growth at the theoretical level. However, empirical research focusing on OECD countries between 1960 and 2011 shows that the relationship between changes in per capita GDP and the elderly proportion of the population is statistically insignificant (Gehringer and Prettner, 2017).
理论层面与实证分析的偏离可能源于人们低估了长寿时代技术进步对劳动力的替代效应，而当前老龄化进程较快的国家却往往是自动化技术发展较快的国家。Acemoglu和Restrepo（2017）的理论文章从两方面讨论了劳动力减少对经济的影响。一方面劳动力下降导致总产出下降，另一方面由于劳动力的下降会内生性地激发产业自动化和机器人产业的发展，最终的总产出并不一定下降。后者会发生主要是当资本和劳动力的缺口足够大时，资本变得比劳动力更便宜，通过资本转化的机器代替劳动力变得有利可图。另有研究指出长寿对技术进步和生产力增长产生积极影响，其对OECD国家的实证分析证实了这一理论（Gehringer and Prettner，2017）。
The divergence between the theoretical level and empirical analysis may stem from an underestimation of the substitution effect of technological progress on the labour force in the age of longevity, whereas countries with a relatively fast ageing process are often countries in which automation technologies have developed relatively rapidly. A theoretical article by Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) discusses the impact of a shrinkage of the labour force on the economy from two aspects. The decline in the labour force on the one hand leads to a drop in total output, while on the other, it provides an endogenous stimulus to the development of industrial automation and robotic industries, such that final total output may not necessarily decline. The latter occurs mainly when capital is relatively abundant and labour is relatively scarce. In this case, capital becomes cheaper than labour, and it becomes profitable to replace the labour force with machinery through the transformation of capital. Another study points out that longevity has a positive impact on technological progress and productivity growth, and its empirical analysis of OECD countries confirms this theory (Gehringer and Prettner, 2017).
2.“长寿经济”创造新的供给与需求
2. New supply and demand created by the “Longevity Economy”
随着老龄人口增多，老年人的消费成为经济的重要组成部分，但目前这种消费观念是工业时代建立的，认为老年人退出劳动力市场，保持老年人健康的唯一方法就是休息。根据欧盟委员会的一项研究显示，主导老年人消费的是保健品和照料服务，在这个观念下，有学者将此称为银发经济。虽然这是社会整体消费的重要部分，但不可否认的是，这部分消费对社会整体的投资和消费挤出效应更大，并且在劳动力市场上争夺年轻劳动力，引发人力资源的危机。消耗性的老年人消费加速社会总体资源的危机，反过来，社会总体资源的危机又加剧老龄人口生活拮据的困难，所以银发经济对经济的正面影响极其有限（Caplan，2014）。
As the elderly population grows, consumption by the elderly will become an important part of the economy, but this concept of consumption has so far been established in the industrial era: it assumes that the elderly have withdrawn from the labour market, and that the only way to preserve the health of the elderly is to allow them to rest. According to a study by the European Commission, health products and care services dominate the consumption of the elderly, a proposal which some scholars call the silver-haired economy. Although this comprises a significant part of overall social consumption, it cannot be denied that this consumption segment has a greater crowding-out effect on overall social investment and consumption, and competes for young labour in the employment market, triggering a human resources crisis. Expendable consumption by the elderly accelerates the overall crisis in social resources. Conversely, the crisis in overall social resources exacerbates the everyday hardships of the elderly population, meaning that the positive impact of the silver-haired economy on the economy is extremely limited (Caplan, 2014).
与银发经济强调老年人的消耗性消费不同，真正适应长寿时代社会经济结构的是更有活力的长寿经济。在长寿经济的概念下，老年人除作为消费者外，同时还担任着生产者和创新者的角色，在消费端和供给端同时推动经济增长和社会进步。我们正处于一个科技驱动的转型期，对体力劳动的需求在持续减少或者可以被机器人所代替，互联网正在重新组合生产要素，使得空间上的移动需求大大减少，人工智能正在与人类智力结合。老年人的价值将被重新认识、定位和发掘，而不是停留在社会资源的消耗者这个刻板的定位上。运用新思路让老年人通过更灵活的方式参与劳动力市场，传授知识技能、传递经验或者进行社会服务工作，让老年人“持续”生产和创新，创造属于他们自己的“第三次人口红利”。正如美国麻省理工学院老龄实验室（AgeLab）的约瑟夫·库格林（Joseph Coughlin）教授在《长寿经济》一书中指出，长寿世界的未来取决于老年人在其中的行动（Coughlin，2017）。
Unlike the silver-haired economy, which emphasises expendable consumption by the elderly, the longevity economy is more dynamic, and truly adapted to the socio-economic structure of the age of longevity. Under the concept of the longevity economy, the elderly act not only as consumers, but also at the same time as producers and innovators, promoting economic growth and social progress on both the demand and supply sides simultaneously. We are currently in a technology-driven period of transformation, in which demand for manual labour is continuously decreasing or being replaced by robots. The Internet is combining the factors of production in completely new ways, greatly reducing the need for spatial mobility, and artificial intelligence is now being combined with human intelligence. The value of the elderly will once again be recognised, positioned and explored, instead of remaining static in a fixed role as a consumer of social resources. New lines of thinking will be used to enable the elderly to participate more flexibly in the labour market, share their knowledge and skills, impart their experience or engage in social service, so that the elderly can “sustain” production and innovation, and create their own “third demographic dividend”. As Professor Joseph Coughlin of MIT’s AgeLab notes in his book, The Longevity Economy, the future of the longevity world will be dependent on the activities of the elderly in it (Coughlin, 2017).
长寿经济是老龄人口推动的所有经济活动及其连锁反应的总和。一方面，世界上几乎每个国家老龄人口的比例都将增加，市场需求非常庞大且可以预见增长。老年人通过不断变化的需求推动大量新产品和服务并为其提供资金，特别是那些采用技术创新的产品和服务，以直接、间接或者引导的方式形成和改变市场，缔造全新的长寿经济。波士顿咨询集团（Boston Consulting Group）预计，到2030年，美国55岁以上的人口将占美国自2008年以来消费支出增长的50%，日本和德国的这一数字分别升至67%和86%。美国退休人员协会（AARP）预测，老年人对于经济和社会的贡献举足轻重，且2050年之前随着老龄人口的增加都将持续上升。例如，2018年，美国50岁及以上人口直接消费支出7.6万亿美元，占全部人口的56%，至2050年将达27.5万亿美元，占比将提升至61%。这些趋势将为未来30多年的经济增长奠定基础。另一方面，人们在过了退休年龄之后继续参与劳动力市场，继续工作或创业，继续赚取和支出工资，其经济活动的贡献持续增加，持续推动经济增长。在许多情况下，老年人的生产力和创造力甚至可能随着年龄的增长而提高。一个常被提及的现象是，年长的劳动力大多受雇于知识密集型行业，具备更多的知识技能和经验，并因此更有价值。事实上，这些知识技能和经验的积累也有助于创业。据美国退休人员协会（AARP）统计，在美国，50岁及以上人士的创业率最高，约为20多岁人士的2倍，他们建立了美国近1/3的创业企业。尊重老年人，让他们有机会持续为雇主发挥自己的知识技能和经验，或者创业，这将使他们成为振兴经济的更强大的力量。
The longevity economy is the sum of all the economic activities driven by the elderly population and their chain reactions. On the one hand, the proportion of the elderly population will increase in almost every country worldwide, forming very high market demand with predictable growth. The elderly are driving and providing funding for a large number of new products and services through their continuously changing needs, particularly those products and services which make use of innovative technologies to shape and alter the market, either directly, indirectly or in a guided manner, creating a brand-new longevity economy. The Boston Consulting Group estimates that by 2030, the US population aged 55 years and above will account for 50% of the increase in consumer spending since 2008; for Japan and Germany, this figure is 67% and 86% respectively. The American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) forecasts that the contribution of the elderly to the economy and society will be significant, and will continue to increase together with the elderly population until 2050. For example, in 2018, direct consumption expenditure by the American population aged 50 years and above totalled USD 7.6 trillion, accounting for 56% of the total population. By 2050, this will have reached USD 27.5 trillion, accounting for 61%. These trends will provide the foundations for economic growth over the next 30 years. On the other hand, as people continue to participate in the labour market after they reach retirement age, continue working either as employees or as entrepreneurs, and continue to learn and spend their wages, their contribution to economic activity will continue to increase, and continue to drive economic growth. In many cases, the productivity and creativity of the elderly may even increase with age. A frequently mentioned phenomenon is that the older workforce is mostly employed in knowledge-intensive industries, with greater knowledge skills and experience, and is therefore more valuable. In fact, these accumulated knowledge skills and experience are also useful in entrepreneurship. American Association of Retired Persons statistics show that in the US, people aged 50 years and above have the highest rates of entrepreneurship (about twice that of people in their 20s), and they make up almost one-third of start-ups in the US. Respecting the elderly and giving them the opportunity to continue to apply their knowledge, skills and experience on behalf of their employers, or as entrepreneurs, will make them an even more powerful force for revitalising the economy.
长寿经济蕴含巨大的商业机会，其经济收益不可估量，将吸引越来越多的企业、机构和投资者参与其中。这些商业机会超越我们现有的规范界限，因为新时代的老年人在平均意义上比上一代更为富裕，且更多受过高等教育，其财富水平和支出方式持续演进，习惯于创新驱动的市场。企业、机构和投资者在突破传统思维方式、持续创新面向老年人的产品和服务的过程中，需要真正去理解老年人的多元化需求，应在满足基本生理或安全需求之外，更好地满足老年人更高层次的需求，例如适老化的科技产品、提升生活质量的消费医疗产品以及满足继续发展需求的教育文化产品等。
The longevity economy encompasses huge business opportunities, its economic potentials are immeasurable, and it will attract participation from ever greater numbers of businesses, institutions and investors. These business opportunities go far beyond our existing normative boundaries, because in this new era, the elderly are on average wealthier and more educated than the generation that came before them, and their wealth levels and spending patterns are continuing to evolve, accustomed as they are to innovation-driven markets. In the process of breaking through traditional ways of thinking and continuously innovating products and services for the elderly, businesses, institutions and investors must gain a real understanding of the diverse needs of the elderly, and in addition to being able to meet their basic physiological or safety needs, must be better able to meet the higher-level needs of the elderly, such as elder-friendly technology products, consumer medical products that improve their quality of life, and education and cultural products which meet their need for continued development, inter alia.
企业、机构和投资者还需为老年人参与经济活动、创造价值、建设和影响周围的世界全面赋能，例如鼓励老年人参与创新、为老年人提供工作岗位和适老化环境、为老年人提升竞争力创造条件等等，从而增加老年人的收入。以汽车制造商为例，宝马为了留住技术熟练、经验丰富的老龄工人，改造生产线、创造合适的工作环境以便让其继续工作。2011年新生产线应用于其在德国丁戈林（Dingolfing）的一个大型新工厂，该工厂完全由50岁及以上的工人运营。此外，宝马、奥迪、大众等汽车制造商均在创新实验可穿戴机器人——外骨骼，通过减轻关节负担并增强力量来提升老龄工人的生产力和竞争力。长寿经济在某些特定领域表现尤为显著，主要包括金融服务和保险（Migliaccio，2019）、医疗健康和科技，这些特定行业正被推向创新和拓展的新方向，例如无龄感的智能家居技术、无人驾驶等。
Businesses, institutions and investors must also fully empower the elderly to participate in economic activity, create value, build and influence the world around them, for example by encouraging the elderly to participate in innovation, by providing jobs and elder-friendly environments for the elderly, and creating the right conditions for the elderly to improve their competitiveness, inter alia, thereby increasing their income. Let’s take the car manufacturer BMW as an example: in order to retain their older workers with their technological skills and wealth of experience, the company transformed the design of their production line, creating a suitable working environment so that they could continue working. In 2011, the new production line was introduced at a large new plant in Dingolfing, in Germany, entirely operated by employees aged 50 years and above. In addition, BMW, Audi, Volkswagen and other vehicle manufacturers are all innovating and experimenting with wearable robots – exoskeletons to increase the productivity and competitiveness of elderly workers by increasing physical strength and reducing the burden on joints. The longevity economy has made particularly notable inroads in a number of areas, mainly including financial services and insurance (Migliaccio, 2019), healthcare and technology. These specific industries are being pushed to innovate and expand in new directions, such as ageless smart home technologies, autonomous vehicles, and much more.
发展长寿经济有利于缓解社会不平等。市场将围绕老年人的多元化需求形成丰富的业态，为老年群体的健康生活和顺利工作提供更细致的服务和支撑。同时，更多的老年人将参与到生产创造中。老年人在岗时间的延长和收入增长能一定程度上缓解养老金替代率不足的问题，也有利于减轻对于劳动人口比例下降导致财富差距扩大的担忧。
Developing the longevity economy will help alleviate social inequality. The market will form a rich business environment based on the diverse needs of the elderly, and provide more finely tuned services and support to ensure the healthy lives and occupational comfort of elderly groups. At the same time, more elderly people will participate in production and creation. The extension of the employment of elderly people and income growth will to a certain degree be able to alleviate the issue of the insufficient pension replacement rate, and will also help to alleviate the concern that a decline in the proportion of the working population will lead to a widening of the wealth gap.
在互联网、人工智能、机器人等技术不断进步的基础上，长寿经济作为一种新的经济模式，在全球老龄人口占比上升的大趋势中，将成为全球经济的驱动力，并造福于各年龄层和各代人。随着人口预期寿命的延长，个体在较长的生命周期内学习、生产、生活的方式发生巨大转变，经济和社会价值也随之整体转变，长寿经济变得更为普遍，充分激发“第三次人口红利”，进而成为经济和社会的核心之一。
Based on the continued progress of the Internet, artificial intelligence, robotics and other technologies, the longevity economy will act as a new economic model, and become the force driving the global economy and benefiting people of all ages amidst a trend in which the elderly proportion of the population is generally increasing. As the population’s life expectancy rises, the ways in which individuals study, produce and live throughout their extended life cycles will undergo massive changes. Economic and social values will also undergo wholesale change, and the longevity economy will become more widespread, providing wide-ranging stimulus for the “third demographic dividend”, furthering its importance as a core focus point for the economy and society.
