The Dow Jones Industrial Average started with 12 stocks that really were industrial. The Hang Seng, Hong Kong’s equivalent blue-chip collection, included 33 because the bank of that name was formed in 1933. The history of the best-known indices is as relevant as knowing that brokers once met under a buttonwood tree or that Edward Lloyd’s coffee house used to be the place to insure a ship. But what the indices include matters very much today because of their effect on market mood. The Dow’s price-based composition makes it an anachronism. The Hang Seng, meanwhile, is alive and well, but it needs more stocks.
道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)最初的12只成分股全都是货真价实的工业股票。相当于蓝筹股集合的香港恒生指数(Hang Seng Index)包括33只成分股，因为恒生银行(Hang Seng Bank)成立于1933年。了解这些最知名指数的历史，就像证券业从业者一定会知道曾经的梧桐树下集会创立了纽交所，也和保险业的人熟稔这一行业是从爱德华•劳埃德(Edward Lloyd)的咖啡屋提供的船舶保险衍生来的一样。但如今，这些指数的成分股之所以关系重大，源于它们对市场情绪的影响。道琼斯工业平均指数以价格确定成分股的权重，这让该指数显得落伍。与此同时，恒生指数依然充满活力，但它需要增加更多的成分股。
There is no ideal index size. Tokyo’s Topix has more than 1,500 constituents, while London’s FTSE 100 contains what it promises. This week China Mengniu Dairy replaced China Coal Energy in the now 50-strong Hang Seng. That reflects a shift in the mainland economy away from heavy industry towards consumers. But 50 stocks are not enough to reflect the city’s status as the starting point for overseas interest in China. Hong Kong is not the only way to invest there, but, while mainland inflows are tightly controlled, it is the easiest. Foreigners hold just 1.5 per cent of mainland A-shares, a proportion that could expand to all of 4 per cent by 2016, says Deutsche Bank.
并不存在完美的股指规模。东京东证指数(Topix)拥有逾1500只成分股，而伦敦富时100指数(FTSE 100)有100只成分股，与其名称相符。本周中国蒙牛乳业(China Mengniu Dairy)取代中煤能源(China Coal Energy)，跻身恒生指数50只成分股之列。这反映出内地经济重心从重工业转向消费领域。但50只成分股不足以反映出香港作为海外投资中国桥头堡的地位。香港并非是海外投资中国内地的唯一通道，但内地对资本流入的严格控制，使香港成为最容易的通道。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)表示，目前海外投资者在A股的持有比例只有1.5%，到2016年这一比例可能上升到4%。
The Hang Seng has expanded and changed before. In 2006 it included H shares – Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies – and grew to 38 stocks. In 2007 it moved to 50 stocks. It even launched a 100 index in 1998, only to drop it in 2001. Yet back then the Hang Seng was made up of local companies. Now more than two-thirds are China-based and most of the rest have extensive operations there. The Hang Seng has room to expand. The market capitalisation of the FTSE 100 is four-fifths of the capitalisation of the FTSE 350 but the Hang Seng accounts for just three-fifths of the 357-strong Hang Seng Composite. Benchmark indices can set market mood as much as they reflect it, which is why the Dow’s high profile is so irritating. A 100-strong Hang Seng wouldn’t stop the local obsession with its ups and downs, but it would be a far better market mirror.
香港恒生指数此前已经进行了扩大和调整。2006年，该指数吸收了H股公司（在香港上市的中国公司），并将成分股增加至38只。2007年，恒指成分股增至50只。恒指服务公司甚至在1998年推出恒生100指数，但在2001年停止编制该指数。然而当时恒指成分股全都是香港本地公司。现在超过三分之二的成分股是中国内地公司，其他大部分成分股公司也在内地广泛开展业务。恒指还有增加成分股的空间。富时100指数成分股的市值是富时350指数(FTSE 350)成分股市值的五分之四，但恒指成分股市值只有恒生综合指数(Hang Seng Composite Index)357只成分股市值的五分之三。基准指数不仅可以反映市场情绪，还可以塑造市场情绪，这就是道琼斯工业平均指数引人注目令人恼火的原因。一个拥有100只成分股的恒生指数不会让香港市场摆脱跌宕起伏的困扰，但它将会更好地反映市场状况。
